Arden

There is such a thing as rigorous analysis in commodities. Since 2011 I've followed an Israeli value investor and blogger called ido meroz, who now lives in China. He analyzed housing supply and demand in China and concluded there is massive housing oversupply. China is the largest consumer of steel, and miners at the time were projecting continued growth in demand and expanding mining. He saw a problem for steel both from supply and demand and bet big against Vale (30$ at the time, 5$ now) and Australian dollar. Steel prices have dropped from 160$ then to around 50$ now.

Interesting then that GM increased profits due to increased sales mix of SUVs and crossovers. Gm's China business is very strong and way different than BMW, Mercedes, and VW who have been forced to lower prices. Are you suggesting GM didn't lower prices while others did? What are you basing this on?

One thing to note is CAT's huge financial company- with about 30B in loans . It stands to reason some of these loans have been made to its customers in mining and oil, and some of those are surely having rough times with the crash in commidities. When things get worse, especially in china, this thing could explode. CAT has very fishy accounting- even as metals and iron ore fall by about 50% it has barely any provision for credit losses .I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to play in as if everything is going smoothly until they couldn't anymore. CAT financial reports: http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000764764&owner=exclude&count=40&hidefilings=0

China auto sales fall to 17 Month low despite price cuts http://bloom.bg/1Mhmoxn

It is really hard to understand the profitability here. http://www.rolls-royce.com/news/press-releases/yr-2015/pr-29-07-2015-rr-signs-580m-totalcare-engine-support-agreement-with-vietname-airlines.aspx 340M Pounds for 14 engines. That's 24 M per engine. Assuming a 20% profit margin, it will be 4.8 M per engine profit. How long is this total care contract? 10 years? 20 years? That can change the valuation drastically. Does anyone know? Assuming it is 10 years contract. Each year it will make 0.48 Million pounds per engine. There are 1500 engines sold. So that's 740 Million pounds per year profit. Giving it a 10 PE, and we get 7.4 Bn valuation. Today's market cap is 13 bn. Is my assumption reasonable? Of course they have other lines of businesses, but not that profitable. It puzzle me as to why the author claims it is way undervalued. I asked the article's author about totalcare revenue recognition today, he wrote: "The company does not provide much detail on how revenue is recognized from TotalCare agreements. Given that, it is hard to give you an answer." On the subject of pricing, he goes more into it in his previous article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3266845-rolls-royce-the-goose-has-laid-the-golden-engine If it is hard to give the answer, then why can he comfortably claim RR is undervalued? Isn't totalCare contracts the major reason to invest in this annuity like business? I think this presentation regarding TotalCare accounting answers your questions, I'm surprised the author hasn't referred me to it: http://www.rolls-royce.com/~/media/Files/R/Rolls-Royce/documents/investors/results/presentations-and-briefings/2014-investor-briefing-totalcare-accounting-mark-morris-tcm92-57736.pdf

How could they possibly reach high single digits when rising rates will hurt at least 60% of their portfolio? Did they say the fixed income side is only very short term?

It is really hard to understand the profitability here. http://www.rolls-royce.com/news/press-releases/yr-2015/pr-29-07-2015-rr-signs-580m-totalcare-engine-support-agreement-with-vietname-airlines.aspx 340M Pounds for 14 engines. That's 24 M per engine. Assuming a 20% profit margin, it will be 4.8 M per engine profit. How long is this total care contract? 10 years? 20 years? That can change the valuation drastically. Does anyone know? Assuming it is 10 years contract. Each year it will make 0.48 Million pounds per engine. There are 1500 engines sold. So that's 740 Million pounds per year profit. Giving it a 10 PE, and we get 7.4 Bn valuation. Today's market cap is 13 bn. Is my assumption reasonable? Of course they have other lines of businesses, but not that profitable. It puzzle me as to why the author claims it is way undervalued. I asked the article's author about totalcare revenue recognition today, he wrote: "The company does not provide much detail on how revenue is recognized from TotalCare agreements. Given that, it is hard to give you an answer." On the subject of pricing, he goes more into it in his previous article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3266845-rolls-royce-the-goose-has-laid-the-golden-engine

According to consumer affairs' website, SIRI has an average user satisfaction score of 1/5 based on almost 2000 reviews http://www.consumeraffairs.com/home_electronics/sirius.html Similar scores on Yelp, based on only 67 votes though http://www.yelp.com/biz/sirius-xm-radio-washington-2 Any thoughts on why that is? Do you think it matters at all for SIRI? Time warner is probably one of the most hated companies ever and they've done pretty well.

http://www.strayer.edu/degrees/2015-academic-calendar Q2 would be the spring term. Summer term starts in July. Thanks, so this means enrollments have only very recently started to rise, and only Q3 will reflect it.

Strayer reports Q2 results. http://www.strayereducation.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=924374 topped estimates. on the one hand: Revenues for the three months ended June 30, 2015 decreased 3% to $109.8 million compared to $112.7 million for the same period in 2014, principally due to lower enrollment and lower revenue per student. on the other: Total enrollments at Strayer University for the summer term 2015 increased 2% to 37,221 students compared to 36,403 students for the summer term 2014. New student enrollments increased by 4%, and continuing student enrollments increased by 2%. Can anyone explain how enrollment can decrease at the same time it's increasing?

Interesting writeup on seeking alpha http://seekingalpha.com/article/3311125-rolls-royce-recent-dip-is-an-opportunity-long-term-outlook-remains-intact

Why AXP? about BBL- I would stay away from anything related to iron ore and industrial metals, I've been shorting BBL, VALE and RIO. There is oversupply resulting from extreme optimism of the large miners, and at the same time the biggest customer- China, has a serious construction bubble, which has only started to burst . iron ore prices are already down 60-70% from peak. Caveat emptor

ASPS q2 presentation: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-32801L/325290166x0x840643/ABDB635B-6B0C-4CAA-9C31-08FDAC2462D0/2Q2015_Earnings_Slides_v16.pdf

This industry seems to constantly move towards consolidation since there's obviously economies of scale. From the article: "Back in the 1970s, the Department of Justice sued more than 36 poultry companies for conspiring to cut chicken production and keep prices high. Together, those companies controlled about half the chicken market. Today, just three companies control that share of the market." Even if poultry prices fall or grain prices rise, it will only lead to more consolidation, some of it probably done by SAFM with their impressive balance sheet. Since poultry is so cheap compared to beef (about half the cost per pound) there seems to be a wide gap between the cost of production and the price customers are willing to pay. furthermore, Beef prices have skyrocketed in the last 18 months, making the gap between poultry and beef even bigger: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/beef-prices-up-50-over-last-18-months-1.3160421 http://www.thestreet.com/story/13225375/1/why-a-mcdonalds-big-mac-could-cost-you-a-lot-more-soon.html

I've read that, unlike "regular" options, if the warrants are not exercised until strike you simply lose them all and get nothing, is this true? Is it possible to exercise them at any time?