heth247

Anybody follow this stock? Today's drop might be a good entry point although the capital raise and revenue forecast is disappointing.

Anybody still following this one? It seems not participating the broad market bounce, priced for terminate decline, yet it's revenue is flat, and has a strong balance sheet, no net debt.

Anybody like CTRA at this price and believe in a recovery of met coal prices by year end?

My rule of thumb is that I stop looking at equity when I can get hold of bonds of the same name at <50c on the dollar. At 30c on the dollar, the bonds have become basically equity and the stock has become a far out of the money call option. I heard that during BK, even if you are a (minority) bond holder, you can still be robbed by the big holders by not allowing you participate. Have that happened to you before?

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I think they have better liquidity than ETM to survive the Covid-19 hit. But the equity is not cheap enough compared to ETM for a speculation play. And at this point, we are still not clear how bad their revenue will decline. They are still mostly radio.

Any chance you've tried their TownSquare Digital Advertising business? I'm in the same industry, and I can tell you that not one digital advertising agency is the same. If the investment thesis is dependent on a growth of TSQ Interactive and Digital - then I would not invest until you are fully comfortable with their offerings. Not to say this is not a fat pitch, but many times it could be the opposite. Lastly, how did you get to a 30% FCF yield? Did you include the debt in your calculations? FCF to equity. I am not in the industry, but their growth in Ignite and Interactive is public, after they started to break it out. Doesn't ETM have a much higher FCF yield than this one? In terms of metrics, ETM are similarly leveraged (about 5X LTM ebitda), and 3X interest coverage. ETM don't have debt due until 2024 but half of TSQ's debt is due 2022. Would you think TSQ's revenue decline will fare better than ETM in 2020 due to the Covid-19? Thanks.

I'm just a noob but i had made a list of companies "at risk" (the list did not include VIAD) and all of them have recently fully drawn their credit lines. Five days ago, Viad filed that it had notified to do the same in a "proactive" way.. https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/884219/000156459020011482/vvi-8k_20200317.htm The scenario described is interesting. However, the live-event-services-provider side of the business tends to show lumpy results and 2020 was geared to be a strong year. There will eventually be pent-up demand for GES... I think this is an interesting idea but I am new to it. The key question is can they survive, so I am focusing on the downside. Do you have any insights on how they can manage their expenses during several months of no revenue? From the 10K, I can see about $10M a year for corporate SGA and $14M a year of interest expense. But they don't break out the SGA for the GES and Pursuit segment. For the Pursuit segment, it earns most reveue in the summer, which is still 3 months away. Also, they own equity interest in those lodges, instead of operate them directly. They also have $22M operating leases, $73M purchase obligation, $4.4M pension obligation, $3.4M finance lease obligations for 2020. Not sure if these can be negotiated when such a disruption occurred.

Just took a quick look, as of 12/31/2019, their major debt is the borrowings of $311M under the credit facility. There is still a $135M undrawn capacity, and the credit facility does not mature until Oct 2023. And they also have about $62M cash. On the other hand, they are gonna for sure break the leverage ratio covenant for 2020. However, it seems that the credit facility is guaranteed by the GES segment, not the Persuit segment. So in the worse case, they can default and let go of the GES, and the debt-free Persuit segment (high margin business, $80MM EBITDA) is worth more than current market cap of ~$200M?

Well, negotiation deadline extended to March 13. Not sure if they will still announce 4Q earning tomorrow.

Still no news, must be tough negotiations...

Trying to reactivate this old thread... Any body following the new Dell? Here is a VIC write up 4 months ago - https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/DELL_TECHNOLOGIES_INC/5297326115#description Basically, if you back out the value of 80% VMW shares DELL owns, it implies the DELL core business (hardware, storage), which is highly leveraged but just did $5B FCF in 2019, to be valued at negative $10B. Value trap?

I see, thanks. Even they go for CCAA, I still doubt they will be able to file a full claim of $177M.

Sorry I was confused between BIA and CCAA. Just did some readings on their differences. https://www.gdlaw.ca/blog/2016/11/corporate-restructuring-under-the-bia-and-ccaa-key-differences.html It seems CCAA has fewer rules and is better for companies with complex debt profiles, and BIA proceedings are typically faster and less costly due to more rules. Given OBE's simple debt structure, and small size, why wouldn't they choose BIA over CCAA?

Thanks, good for me to read and learn. But the link says on page 4 that CCAA does have a formula: "As noted previously, if a landlord’s lease is disclaimed, it will have a claim for unsecured damages in the CCAA proceeding. In a proposal proceeding under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (Canada) (BIA) — restructuring proceedings typically used for smaller and less complicated businesses — there is a specific formula that is set out to quantify landlord claims. The BIA proposal formula permits a landlord to file a claim for the lesser of (i) the aggregate of the rent for the first year following the date on which the disclaimer became effective and 15 per cent of the rent for the remainder of the term of the lease after that year; and (ii) three years’ rent. "

I don't see Morguard has much leverage, not to mention owning the company post BK. My understanding of US BK law is that such above-market lease will be rejected in BK, and all they can do is file a damage claim, which will be capped at one year's rent or 15% of remaining lease term. Is Canada different?