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sculpin

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  1. Book value now at $9.14 while shares trading at $4.50. Investment write-downs thru Covid not as bad as expected. Became more active on issuer bid in Q3... Consistent with Crown's plan to rationalize its capital structure, the company acquired and cancelled 154,400 shares in the third quarter and 193,098 in the fiscal year to date under its normal course issuer bid. Continued to grow their distributed power & network services businesses... Total assets increased to $325.5-million at quarter-end, compared with $299.7-million at Dec. 31, 2019
  2. Now sitting on about $1.40 cash/share at the corporate level with an additional $33mm to come in if the rest of the DPM warrants are exercised by next May. Dundee Corp.'s senior management will host a conference call on Monday, Nov. 16, 2020, at 10 a.m. ET, to discuss the company's third quarter 2020 results. Third quarter 2020 results conference call and webcast Date: Monday, Nov. 16, 2020 Time: 10 a.m. ET Webcast: on Dundee's website Live call: 1-888-231-8191 or 1-647-427-7450 Replay: 1-855-859-2056 or 1-416-849-0833 Replay passcode: 5533506 Dundee plans to issue a news release containing the third quarter 2020 results after market close on Friday, Nov. 13, 2020, and will also post it to the company's website. The conference call will be archived for replay until Monday, Nov. 23, 2020, at midnight. An archive of the audio webcast will also be available at Dundee's website.
  3. Horizons Kinetics Q3... Two Assessments of Energy: ‘The Market’ and Contrarian (fact-based) Investing Introduction Today we’re talking about energy. Not exclusively, but mostly. Specifically because many of you have been asking about how the fossil fuel divestment movement and green energy initiatives will impact the energy sector – more frequent questions, and more alarmed. If we don’t address this, there might not be the mind space to hear anything else. The fear isthat there will be such a drastic collapse of oil and gas use, or that, as some have suggested, fossil fuel use will be non-existent by the year 2035, that it will create a permanent failure among energy stocks; stranded assets, and all of that. We see the investment reality entirely differently; entirely. The imminent danger is not the collapse of fossil fuel use; the imminent danger is an oil supply shortage and oil price shock. However peculiar this might at first sound, energy, right now, is one of the few ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ investment opportunities that one can be fortunate enough to actually come across in a lifetime. https://horizonkinetics.com/wp-content/uploads/Q3-CVALUE-Review_FINAL.pdf
  4. Globe says insiders buying at Dundee Corp. 2020-08-10 08:51 ET - In the News Shares issued 99,977,865 DC.A Close 2020-08-07 C$ 1.42 Also In the News (C:DPM) Dundee Precious Metals Inc The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Aug. 8, edition that on May 13, Dundee Corp. ($1.42) raised $151.8-million in gross proceeds via the sale of 23.9 million Dundee Precious Metals ($9.80) shares. The Globe's guest columnist Ted Dixon writes in the Who Is Buying and Selling column that Dundee is sitting on a cash pile available to support what chief executive officer Jonathan Goodman has said is the firm's strategic focus on the junior mining sector. Mr. Goodman and Dundee Corp. director Murray Sinclair are literally buying into the junior mining pivot. Since May 19, Mr. Goodman has spent $2-million buying Dundee Corp. shares at an average price of $1.23.
  5. Why not buy a place in Sequim or the San Juans? Much drier & sunnier than Seattle, beautiful location and close. The Olympic Rain Shadow is a small region northwest of the city of Seattle which experiences significantly dryer and brighter weather than surrounding locations. The rain shadow encompasses the towns of Sequim, Port Angeles, Port Townsend, Coupeville, and Victoria BC, as well as much of the San Juan Islands. For details on climate, precipitation, and an Olympic rain shadow map, see our location page; for current conditions, check our Sequim weather station, or click here for a detailed Sequim weather forecast. Here are some highlights from our days of sunshine studies: Winter (Nov-Jan) saw 5X as many mostly sunny days in the shadow vs. Seattle. Winter saw only 1/4 as many dreary days in the shadow vs. Seattle. Spring (Feb-May) saw the highest number of "rain shadow" days per month, at nearly 8! Summer (Jul-Sep) saw rain shadow areas and Seattle with nearly equal mostly sunny days. Port Angeles was definitely *in* the rain shadow, with quite similar benefits to Sequim. Anacortes was on the north eastern fringe of the rain shadow. http://olympicrainshadow.com/
  6. Hit harder than most fund managers in Q1 with share price dropping down to $100 & now just back to $120. Q2 should be out in next 2 weeks - will they make back little/most/none of their losses from the destruction of their portfolios in March? Someone said they were spreadsheet tracking their portfolios. No position. "Senvest Capital Inc. had a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $342-million or $129.38 diluted loss per share attributable to common shareholders for the three months ended March 31, 2020. This compares with a net income attributable to common shareholders of $54.8-million or $20.36 diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders for the same period in 2019."
  7. http://prefblog.com/ GMP To Suspend Preferred Share Dividends July 31st, 2020 GMP Capital Inc. has announced: DIVIDENDS The Company’s net working capital as at June 30, 2020 was $122.8 million. While this level of liquidity is sufficient to pay dividends, under Section 38(3) of the Business Corporations Act (Ontario), the Company’s governing corporate statute, the Company cannot pay a dividend if there are reasonable grounds for believing that the net realizable value of the Company’s assets would be less than the aggregate of its liabilities and its legal stated capital of all classes of shares (common and preferred). Due to the current level of stated capital of the Company’s outstanding common and preferred shares, the Board of Directors has reasonable grounds to believe that this test would not be satisfied as at September 30, 2020, the date on which its quarterly preferred share dividend would normally be paid. As such the Company is suspending the dividends on its preferred shares. At its next meeting of common shareholders, the Company intends to seek the approval of its common shareholders to reduce the stated capital of the common shares to allow the Company to resume paying dividends, including accrued, unpaid dividends on the preferred shares. Dividends on the outstanding preferred shares are cumulative and will continue to accrue in accordance with the rights, privileges, restrictions and conditions associated with each series of preferred shares. Affected issues are GMP.PR.B and GMP.PR.C. These issues have been on Review-Developing at DBRS for a long time, due to uncertainty regarding the proposed deal with Richardson GMP. It looks like the uncertainty became a lot more uncertain! Of particular interest is the following quote (emphasis added): At its next meeting of common shareholders, the Company intends to seek the approval of its common shareholders to reduce the stated capital of the common shares to allow the Company to resume paying dividends, including accrued, unpaid dividends on the preferred shares. So there’s no indication as to how much of a reduction in stated capital the company will seek. A sharp reduction in stated capital at Aimia allowed the company to resume dividends on the common and to execute a Substantial Issuer Bid for that common, neither of which was good for the preferred shareholders. Thanks to Assiduous Reader DR for bring this to my attention!
  8. GMP just suspended their preferred dividend for what looks like a technical reason / incompetence but I don’t know for sure. Essentially, they need to have a shareholder meeting to reduce the stated capital and from what I can tell they haven’t had their 2019 AGM yet so it should be by year end. Anyway, another bad idea in a string of bad ideas from me. Apologies. Most likely only a bad idea in the short term. If one can use price weakness to add to the GMP prefs at lower levels on this news, when the dividend is restored later this year, will turn out to be an even better idea.
  9. Turkeys are flying - OBE up 27% in weak energy market. The long awaited Cardium consolidation?? OBE - T 21.0 0.75 · 0.82 23.5 0.80 0.17 27.0 471.4
  10. Research Note - Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (DPM:TSX,$9.09|BUY $13.00 TRGT) FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH We have revised our model and target price following our conversation with DPM on Friday, July 03. DPM is a stable and solid performing mid-tier producer. It generates cashflow from stable, low risk jurisdictions. And with its recent additions to the TSX composite index it has the requisite liquidity that represents a company having a significant re-rating potential. Moreover, its return of cash to shareholders, through a quarterly dividend of US$0.02/share and share repurchase program, is attractive to investors. DPM is backed by solid low-cost production which is growing and a cost structure that is declining. Q1 saw stellar production of 73 Koz Au and 9.4 Mlbs copper at a low AISC of $593/oz. Free cash flow is expected to be around $140 M to $180 M per year in the next three years. DPM remains on track to meet it production and cost guidance for 2020 at all of its operations. We maintain our BUY rating and have revised our 12-month target price to C$13.00/share (from C$9.50/share). We spoke with the Company to gauge its general working conditions during COVID-19, the Company’s full year guidance and its Q2/19 expectations. DPM’s production is progressing well and is largely uninterrupted. Chelopech and Ada Tepe mines in Bulgaria continue to operate fully and in line with guidance. Tsumeb, the smelter in Namibia, is also operating in line with guidance albeit with reduced staff in certain areas, as government mandated. Q1 Result Review: In Q1 DPM reported a record revenue of $152M (+9% Q/Q from $140M) and generated $77.5M in EBITDA (+41% Q/Q from $55M). Free cash flow came in at $49.2M (+315% Q/Q from $11.8M). In Q1/20 DPM’s consolidated gold production of 73.0 Koz and copper production of 9.4 Mlbs were achieved at an impressive cash cost of $511/oz and an AISC of $593/oz net of byproduct. Lower production costs, higher realized metal prices and lower sustaining and growth capital, as well as a solid production profile, contributed to an impressive AISC. Tsumeb processed 65 Kt also beat our estimate (MPI est. 55 Kt), at a cost of $357/t. The Company ended first quarter debt free, with $13.6M cash in hand and an undrawn portion of RCF of $175M. It expects to fully settle its prepaid forward gold sale of 20.97 Koz in 2020. Valuation: We maintain our BUY rating and have revised our 12-month target price to C$13.00/share (from C$9.50/share). Our valuation is now based on a 1.3x NAV (from a 1.0x NA) and is based on a long-term gold and copper price of $1,550/oz and $2.75/lbs. DPM is currently trading at 0.9x our NAV estimate. Our NAV multiple is based on DPM’s strong track record of delivering on expectations since it declared commercial at Ada Tepe and completed ramping up in Q2/19 and transitioned from a single asset to multi asset gold producer. DPM is trading at a valuation below to inline with other mid to large-cap producers. Its 2020E P/CFPS of 4.5x and 2021E P/CFPS of 3.7x reflects a significant discount to peers that are trading at 2020E P/CFPS of 7.2x and 2021E P/CFPS of 5.2x. For the rest of the year we expect DPM to continue to close that gap. With large capital investment ending, focus has turned to production optimization and cash flow generation. Its recently instituted quarterly dividend of US$0.02/share reflects its cash flow generating potential. We are modeling an annual production of 272 Koz of gold and 37Mlbs of copper at an AISC of $717/oz, net of byproduct. For Q2/20 we expect a consolidated gold production of 67.75 Koz (40.67 Koz for Chelopech and 27.07 Koz for Ada Tepe) and 9.35Mlbs of copper, at an AISC of ~US$700/oz Au produced. 2020 Production Guidance: For FY20 consolidated gold production is expected to be between 257 Koz and 299 Koz. Copper production guidance is between 35 Mlbs to 40 Mlbs. The guidance for the Tsumeb smelter processed concentrate is 230 Kt to 265 Kt. DPM is guiding for 2020 AISC to be between US$700 and US$780/oz sold, net of byproduct. E: research@mpartners.ca www.mpartners.ca 70 York Street Suite 1500 Toronto, ON Canada M5J 1S9
  11. Terra Firma Capital Corp Rating: Buy unchanged 12-Month Target: C$10.00 RESEARCH NOTE | May 15, 2020 Short-term Pain, Long-term Gain Investment Thesis. The North American housing market relies on access to development capital to fund its growth. The U.S. market remains underfunded following the housing crisis and with the onset of COVID-19, provides a huge opportunity for Terra Firma to leverage its experience operating in distressed markets. The experience of senior management on both sides of the border is a competitive advantage. The business model is highly scalable and offers considerable operating leverage. In our view, TII’s risk/reward profile makes it a unique and attractive investment opportunity. Event Terra Firma reported Q1/20 results which showed the first indication of the COVID-19 slowdown. Demand for residential development financing remains robust, although the company is pausing its lending activities until the outlook is more certain. Highlights  Q1 Overview | Despite starting the quarter on a “strong footing”, COVID-19 hit late in the quarter which impacted global debt and equity markets, dampened consumer sentiment, and ultimately caused the company to elect not to close on $38M of the $48M in possible transactions in its pipeline. Even with the impact, TII still managed to grow revenue and earnings marginally y/y, but both came in slightly below our estimates. Additionally, the loan book and average realized interest rate both decreased by a marginal amount sequentially.  COVID-19 Impact on TII & U.S. Housing | Prior to the outbreak, the U.S. housing market was off to a roaring start in 2020; however, the COVID-19 outbreak caused a complete reversal in sentiment. TII has fared quite well so far as its U.S. positions are all in “good standing”, having received close to all promised interest payments. Looking longer term, the virus will likely continue to be disruptive and could potentially lead to a material slowdown in land development over the next few quarters, which will slow growth of Terra Firma’s pipeline (but shouldn’t last too long). We believe the near-term turmoil presents a significant opportunity for Terra Firma because of its exposure to leading residential housing sub-markets in the U.S. at a time when now, more than ever, banks will likely curtail lending activities. The company continues to have a good relationship and be in close contact with Texas Capital Bank; this, along with its book equity of ~$40M, should allow it to continue to grow AUM without the need for additional capital. Valuation & Conclusion TII is a profitable, growing lender that offers investors upside, a solid yield (~5%), strong inside ownership and remains inexpensive, trading at ~0.4x book and ~5x run rate P/E. Short-term COVID-19 impact aside, we continue to believe the company’s compelling fundamentals and strong track record (having raised +C$350M from investors with a zero loss rate) are not accurately reflected in the current share price, trading at $4.00, well below its long-term average 1.0x book value multiple. Exiting COVID-19, we expect deal flow to be robust, as home builders and land developers look to restart their businesses while faced with a lack of traditional funding sources. Early indicators are pointing to increased security and higher deposit and interest rates, which combine to mean that Terra Firma may be able to loan money with more security and a higher interest rate. We are rolling forward our valuation to 2021, given that we expect it to be a more normalized year. Using our 12x P/E multiple we maintain our C$10.00 target, which is supported by the company’s C$9.94/sh book value. We reiterate our Buy rating. Corey Hammill, Senior Analyst | 416.361.0754 | chammill@paradigmcap.com
  12. Financial statements break out their loans, assets & funds managed…. https://crowncapital.ca/investor-relations/ Founded in 2000, Crown Capital Partners has been providing growth capital to established mid-market businesses. Over this period, Crown has achieved a cumulative gross IRR of 14%+ investing across numerous economic cycles. Crown’s Corporate, Distributed Power and Broadband Networking platforms each provide investors with diversified and reliable income streams not correlated to the public markets.
  13. un 5/20 Jun 4/20 Brussa, John Albert Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 15,000 $3.60 Jun 3/20 Jun 3/20 Brussa, John Albert Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 5,000 $3.60 Jun 3/20 Jun 3/20 Brussa, John Albert Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 20,000 $3.60
  14. Top Insider Buys and Sells Past Week Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction Volume or Value Price Jun 23/20 Jun 23/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Indirect Ownership Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 47,600 $1.31 Jun 22/20 Jun 22/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 46,400 $1.30 Jun 19/20 Jun 19/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 50,800 $1.29 Jun 17/20 Jun 17/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 3,700 $1.25 Jun 15/20 Jun 15/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Preferred Shares Cumulative Floating Rate First Preference Shares, Series 3 10 - Acquisition in the public market 1,000 $15.50 Jun 15/20 Jun 15/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 13,000 $1.21 Jun 12/20 Jun 12/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 16,000 $1.23 Jun 11/20 Jun 11/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Preferred Shares 5-Year Rate Reset First Pref. Shares, Series 2 10 - Acquisition in the public market 2,200 $15.70 Jun 11/20 Jun 11/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 20,400 $1.23 Jun 10/20 Jun 10/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Preferred Shares 5-Year Rate Reset First Pref. Shares, Series 2 10 - Acquisition in the public market 17,800 $15.82
  15. CRWN - CROWN CAPITAL PARTNERS INC - Company Website http://www.crowncapital.ca Wed 24 Jun 14:25:15 EDT - Trade times are ET. News times are ET. Bid/ask/vol sizes in thousands. Sym-X Bid - Ask Last Chg % Vol $Vol #Tr Open-Hi-Lo Year Hi-Lo Last Trade News Delay CRWN - T 0.2 3.56 · 3.65 0.2 3.60 14.1 51 13 3.60 3.65 3.60 8.53 3.49 14:00:26 Jun 15 realtime I have been buying some of the convertible debt (low $70’s) & equity ($3.60) in Crown Capital CRWN (TSX) this week. Book is currently over $10 but I would expect it to drop due to loan impairments in the current environment – Current share price is probably way overdone to the downside though. Management is large holders of shares. In May they suspended their dividend to conserve capital that they say will be used to deploy into their strategy and repurchase shares. There has been some insider buying at these levels. This Company would be a great candidate to be taken private or purchased by a larger player in the mezzanine, private debt market. Latest research from May… CROWN CAPITAL PARTNERS INC. (TSX: CRWN) 12-Month Target: $8.25 Last Close: $4.15 Recommendation: BUY SPECIAL SITUATIONS RESEARCH Implied Total Return: 98.8% COMPANY DESCRIPTION: Crown Capital Partners Inc. (“Crown”, the “Company”, or “CRWN”) is a specialty finance company which provides tailored capital solutions, with minimal or no ownership dilution, to middle-market companies. In addition, management is currently working on Income Streaming Initiatives (power). May 6, 2020 Event. Q1/20 Results, Strategic Update, Dividend Suspension. Highlights. ▪ Revenue for the quarter of $6.4M came in below our estimate of $9.8M and the street at $11.5M ▪ Net loss of $1.2M for the quarter was below our estimate of $1.7M of earnings which was driven by a net unrealized loss on investments of $3.6M. ▪ Total assets increased to $338M at quarter end from ~$300M at the end of 2019 as a result of the previously announced new loans completed during the quarter to Centric Health and CCI wireless. COVID-19 Impact. ▪ Management expects most companies in the portfolio to be impacted to some degree while the analysis of the impact is ongoing. ▪ The portfolio is currently highlighted as stable, and CRWN does not expect any failures at this time. ▪ Interest payments have been steady to date. ▪ Energy exposure is focused on natural gas. Dividend Suspension and Business Repositioning. ▪ In light of the current market environment, CRWN is accelerating a repositioning of the company/balance sheet to focus on: Development of revenue sources where CRWN can be a direct investor and asset manager of capital pools such as the distributed power opportunity. Increased focus on capital light business through a decreased position in the Crown Partners Fund toward a target of 20% or less from the current 39%. ▪ In order to maximize funds available for the repositioning of the business and share buybacks CRWN is suspending dividends for the time being (likely 9-12 months). Outlook. ▪ Management highlights the fact that economic crisis has in the past created opportunity for alternative finance providers which they hope to capitalize on.
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