Speaking of odd lot tenders and modified dutch auctions, look at OUTR. Today was the last day to tender and the stock closed at the lower end of the range. Won't know the tender price until Monday.
Last year, Chamber Street properties (CSG) had a dutch-tender which went through at the lower end of the offer. From the limited number of dutch odd-lot tenders I have done, my observation is that if the stock trades within the range of the offer, there is a higher probability that it will go through at the upper end, if however, the stock trades below the offer, there is a chance of the offer going through at the lower end. However, like everything else, nothing is guaranteed and YMMV.
For dutch tenders, I typically try to buy it near the lower end of the offer and tender it at the lowest tender price, so that typically my upside vs downside is 4:1 or 5:1
e.g If the dutch tender offer is say between $95 and $100 and the stock is trading in that range, I try to buy it at around $96 or lower ( if possible, otherwise I might just give it a pass) and then tender it for $95, so that I end up with a possible ~$100 loss vs a ~$400 gain ( provided of course, the tender goes through, which is a risk in itself).