BTShine

In what way(s) are you considering to invest in mobile homes?

Foreign Tuffet, Do you have the link to the thread?

Brookfield was less than friendly during the GGP rehabilitation process.

As an outsider that knows very little about this company, yet I did attend the annual meeting one time in the past few years, my thoughts at the time were that much of the GRIF earnings power were spent on corporate expenses (executive pay, etc) and therefore the underlying asset values were not of much use when the earnings are handed to others instead of common shareholders. A cursory look at the trailing FCF and market cap show me a yield to equity of around 5%. $10 million in FCF to equity and $200 million market cap. Clearly this cursory look is not in-depth and my assumptions may be far off, but that's how I view the company and therefore are not surprised it trades where it does. I'm sure this board has discussed many things that would make my analysis wrong, but that's my donation to the GRIF discussion if you'd like them.

This story should be getting an update considering the Outlet Stores sale process is supposed to end by Aug 24th, or proceed with an extension of 10 days.

If I had to guess, I'd think the Administration drops big news of their plan regarding the GSEs over the July 4th Holiday. Doesn't give the media much chance to go nuts over Trump "handing billions of $$$ to his buddies Paulson & Co." Journalists are on vacation and no one is reading the news while they're at their BBQ, Lake House or Boat. Akin to Tesla dropping bad news after market close on Friday night.

Thanks for posting this link. One could make an argument that it deserves a higher range of multiples than I mentioned. But, those seem to be conservative estimates. Seems fairly safe to assume the stock will be bought out at $2.25 or more. I’d like to know how the board gets to the $9.50 valuation they asked for during negotiations. I’m not yet an expert in analyzing these situations, but seems like there’s a decent chance the payout to SHOS holders is well above $2.25.

I think a fair assessment is that it cash flows about $25 million a year on an unlevered basis. At a FCF yield of 15%, which would be a good buy price and a fine sale price, that makes the Outlet Stores worth about $167 million. I would think anyone that buys the unit for $100 million is getting a steal. Anyone that buys it for over $250 million is paying more than it’s conservatively worth. Therefore, my valuation range is $100 to $250 million. FCF multiple between 4x and 10x.

For someone that's a casual observer, is there an easy place to learn what the Moelis plan recommended? Any links to posts, blogs, etc?

Video is live now: https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6035185923001/#sp=show-clips

On the surface I completely agree with your thoughts. I think one reason people spend time on this name is because there's an underlying Outlet business that is very profitable ($35m in EBITDA). That's likely one reason some people on here are interested. And, the Hometown business, while money losing, is a net-net and therefore some may believe the company would be liquidated and therefore realize much of that inherent value. That said, this has been a terrible investment for anyone that held over the last 5 years.

Great questions and good insight. I'm surprised they easily terminated the Chairman of the Board. And, I'd also think it would be fairly easy to get a 3rd party valuation of the company that shows a share price of $5 to $10. If I had to guess I'd think a deal gets done around $4 or higher. ESL/SHLD buying the inventory of Hometown, or the entire Hometown Segment, would be an ideal outcome. Not likely, but I'd rather just own Outlet and make $1.00 EPS, which might give us an $8.00+ stock.

Saga is correct. This has been a terrible investment for me.

$10 Billion in annual earnings (is how I interpreted it).

Great question. What do you see as the mid-range expectations for equity returns in SRG?