A Dhandho Investor

It's not something the company discloses to the investment community, but given the high margin profile I would say that the majority of the revenue comes from design ins. edit: they also just published a new investor presentation: https://www.paytongroup.com/webfiles/files/c3bc8f5f723777b2235e19757cafe5a7.pdf

Payton had an excellent Q4, posting $3,1m in net income on $13m in revenues: https://www.paytongroup.com/webfiles/fck/files/FS311220.pdf They also had a record backlog of $18,9m as per 31/12 which bodes well for Q1 2021. With that kind of backlog and the YoY growth figures its largest customer, Quanta computer, is witnessing (via: https://www.quantatw.com/Quanta/english/investment/financials_ms.aspx), 2021 is most likely going to become Payton's best year ever. Exposure to sexy sectors like data centers, the electric vehicle market, etc at an enterprise value of 14 * TTM earnings and possibly 11 * FY 2021 earnings.

“The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones” - John M Keynes A Prophet survey of 13000 consumers asked them about 228 brands. Top 10 were: 1. Apple 2. Peloton (up from no. 35 in previous survey) 3. Kitchen Aid 4. Mayo Clinic 5. Lego 6. Costco 7. Honda 8. John Hopkins 9. PlayStation 10. Amazon --- "When gym and studio closures deprived exercisers of their fitness fix, they knew they needed the mental health benefits of sweat. Peloton, which earns the highest score for “connects with me emotionally,” saved them, nearly doubling sales of its exercise bikes and treadmills. But more importantly, it connected them to others, both through its online communities and its constantly expanding variety of workouts available live and on-demand. These gems are powering triple-digit membership gains and impressively low dropout rates." Dalal will be pleased to see PTON on #2 but not so pleased to see Honda on #7 while Tesla is only #23 :o

Company statement: https://investor.bluebirdbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bluebird-bio-provides-updated-findings-reported-case-acute On SA someone however mentioned the following:

Another brilliant take by one of Cathy’s “experts in autonomous driving”: ???

Textbook Tesla style indeed:

That's interesting. If that is the case, then the true churn (i.e. people who have a choice to subscribe or not) would be a lot higher than these headline metrics would suggest, no? Is there a way to know how many of their current subscribers also are currently "locked in" to their subscription? Guys, why are you nitpicking over details? Dalal has shown that it you can have multibaggers in your portfolio without doing a lot of in depth fundamental analysis. In the current market good old level 1 thinking works best, so why waste time trying to get the details right?

This is a GARP investment. Payton Planar Magnetics has grown revenues at a CAGR of over 10% over the last 10 years, while maintaining profitability in each of those years thanks to its ROIC in the 40% range, gross margins in the 30-40% range and net income margins north of 20%. It is active as one of the market leaders in the planar transformer industry (>20% market share), an industry that is expected to grow double digits for the considerable future due to the boom in the EV and cloud data center industries. Thanks to its 100% free cash flow conversion, the company was able to build a rock-solid balance sheet with a net cash balance to the tune of $42 million, despite having distributed $14,5 million in dividends over the last 4 years. The company is currently trading at 13 * PE or an 8% free cash flow yield (for 2020: 9 million of net income / expected free cash flow on an enterprise value of 118 million). The company has a clean share structure with 17.7 million shares outstanding (no options or warrants), of which one third (34% of the shares) are quoted on Euronext Brussels. The remaining 66% is owned by Payton Industries Ldt, a company quoted on the Israel stock exchange (ticker: PAYT.TA). The founder and chairman of Payton, David Yativ, owns 51% of Payton Industries and as a consequence, about 33% of Payton Planar Magnetics. As per today, Payton Industries is trading on the Israeli stock exchange at a valuation that is 24% higher than the implied valuation on the Brussels stock exchange, due to the illiquid nature of the stock (it is trading on the fixing market of the Brussels stock exchange, where the trading price is only set twice per day via an auction system). For those interested in the company, there are 3 articles on SA by Lucid Capital. This is the most recent one: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379784-payton-planar-hitting-all-cylinders-in-spite-of-pandemic

Just getting started. Increased PPF penetration, potential M&A, window film, lot's of avenues to further grow the business.

Better late than never? https://de.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-safety-investigation/u-s-agency-opens-probe-into-115000-tesla-vehicles-over-suspension-issue-idUSKBN287172 Result of the investigation: "The NHTSA believes that the issue is related to driver abuse. US drivers are as bad drivers as Chinese drivers"

I think you are barking up on the wrong tree. I am probably the most bearish person on CBF re Tesla, but the share price being where it is, and with Xerxes arguing that Tesla might be the next Apple just wanted to provide a more nuanced view. But with the stock being disconnected from its fundamentals since more than a year: why couldn't it still go up to over a trillion dollar valuation? I'm actually 100% confident that if Elon Musk indicated that he would invest excess cash in bitcoin, this could add to the rally in the stock.

My feeling is that this is more like Microsoft in the 2000's when it was trading at over 50 * PE. Over the next 10 years, the fundamentals of Microsoft improved (a lot), but if you invested at the peak in 2000, you still lost over 50% of your money holding a high quality name over a 10 year time frame. I would also say that Microsoft in the 2000's was a higher quality name than Tesla is today (its fundamentals were better, but also industry wise), but I have been wrong on Tesla for as long as I have been on this forum so don't listen to me. It is probably not unreasonable to expect this to trade up to 2 trillion when Elon announces that he has invested Tesla's excess cash in bitcoin.

Surprised to see there is no topic on this $17 billion Chinese fraud yet. They just reported their Q3 results with a revenue beat, but a huge miss on the bottom line. Operating expenses increased 6-fold YoY - evident that they just want to get rid of a cash balance that never really was there.

For those interested: RIWI has published its research regarding the US elections on this page: https://riwi.com/research/riwi-2020-us-election/ They predicted the tight race between Biden and Trump and in their latest report released on November 2 they forecasted a Trump win.

Yeah, what an idea :o. I'm interested to know more about your reflections when you have access to the beta version. It appears he should have bought a GM vehicle: https://www.reuters.com/article/autos-selfdriving-safety/tesla-autopilot-a-distant-second-to-gms-super-cruise-in-hands-free-test-consumer-reports-idUSL1N2HI2O6