LC

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fear-impending-car-price-collapse-110000556.html The auto industry -- already fretting lengthy factory shutdowns and depressed new-vehicle demand -- is starting to sound the alarm about a potential used-car price collapse that could have far-reaching consequences for manufacturers, lenders and rental companies. Used-vehicle auctions are for now virtually paralyzed, much like the rest of the economy. The grave concern market watchers have is that vehicles already are starting to pile up at places where buyers and sellers make and take bids on cars and trucks -- and that this imbalance will last for months.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-opec/opec-russia-approve-biggest-ever-oil-cut-to-support-prices-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-idUSKCN21U0J6 OPEC+ sources said they expected total global oil cuts to amount to more than 20 million bpd, or 20 percent of global supply, effective May 1.

The economy is so bad (how bad?)...so bad, that: My neighbor got a pre-declined credit card in the mail. CEO's are now playing miniature golf. Exxon-Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen. I saw a Mormon with only one wife. McDonald's is selling the 1/4 ouncer. Angelina Jolie adopted a child from America. Parents in Beverly Hills fired their nannies and learned their children's names. A truckload of Americans was caught sneaking into Mexico. A picture is now only worth 200 words. When Bill and Hillary travel together, they now have to share a room. The Treasure Island casino in Las Vegas is now managed by Somali pirates. And, finally... I was so depressed last night thinking about the economy, wars, jobs, my savings, Social Security, retirement funds, etc., I called the Suicide Hotline. I got a call center in Afghanistan, and when I told them I was suicidal, they got all excited, and asked if I could drive a truck!

I disagree. The biggest mistake is permanent loss of capital.

That’s a fair point Viking re the most vulnerable groups

19 years of patriot act vs 1 month of quarantine

There's this weird notion that the only thing "American" is this sense of unbridled freedom. But if you look through history you see some of the most successful and defining periods of "America" being ones where the federal government did, in fact, do lots of dictating: the civil war, the buildup and execution in WW2, and cold war are the three that immediately come to mind. I think a term like "democratic adaptability" is a more generalist description of American behavior, if I had to choose one. And this idea that rugged individualism as a defining American characteristic is pretty off-the-mark. To bring it back, this deli owner pretty much said, "Screw all the sacrifice that the rest of society is making". Not illegal (or maybe it was - not sure what the laws in Jersey are) - but dickish behavior.

Relying on habit is a slippery slope since it only takes 21 days to 1 year to break or rather change a habit into something else. For most people, it's already 30 days since the lockdown. People have been changed imho. I disagree and think once lockdown is lifted we may see a 1-2 week period of "tentative" behavior but will revert rather quickly afterwards, as people are quite frustrated with sitting home all day and night.

Definitely the former. Humans are social creatures. Everyone I know is sick of being cooped-up inside. I think once the social distancing measures are lifted, maybe people will be a bit wary at first, but eventually we'll take back the streets :D

A man walks out to the street and catches a taxi just as it's going by. As he gets into the taxi, and the cabbie says, "Impeccable timing. You're just like Frank." Passenger: "Who?" Cabbie: "Frank Feldman. He's a guy who did everything right all the time. Like my coming along when you needed a cab, things happened like that to Frank Feldman every single time." Passenger: "There are always a few clouds over everybody." Cabbie: "Not Frank Feldman. He was a terrific athlete. He could have won the Grand-Slam at tennis. He could golf with the pros. He sang like an opera baritone and danced like a Broadway star and you should have heard him play the piano. He was an amazing guy." Passenger: "Sounds like he was really something special." Cabbie: "There's more. He had a memory like a computer. He remembered everybody's birthday. He knew all about wine, which foods to order and which fork to eat them with. He could fix anything. Not like me. I change a fuse, and the whole street blacks out. But Frank Feldman could do everything right.” Passenger: "Wow, what a guy!" Cabbie: "He always knew the quickest way to go in traffic and avoid traffic jams. Not like me, I always seem to get stuck in them. But Frank, he never made a mistake, and he really knew how to treat a woman and make her feel good. He would never answer her back even if she was in the wrong; and his clothing was always immaculate, shoes highly polished too. He was the perfect man! He never made a mistake. No one could ever measure up to Frank Feldman." Passenger: "How did you meet him?" Cabbie: "I never actually met Frank. He died and I married his wife."

In Colorado, check out black project. Great sours.

Good question and idea. I am thinking some of the banks? And maybe oil majors? Maybe even Berkshire given their banks exposure. I need to check the option prices but the general thesis is look for good businesses with one time COVID impacts.

a bona fide resident of Puerto Rico is an individual who: Is physically present in Puerto Rico for at least 183 days during the taxable year; Does not have a tax home outside of Puerto Rico during the taxable year; and Does not have a closer connection to the United States or a foreign country than to Puerto Rico.1

Some resources for those who may want to keep an eye on the trading of our totally honest and trustworthy representatives in Congress: https://senatestockwatcher.com/ Also, for some research on the topic: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/10/business/mutfund/congressional-portfolios-outpacing-the-market-essay.html The study, “Abnormal Returns From the Common Stock Investments of Members of the U.S. House of Representatives,” is a real eye-opener. Using the financial disclosures of politicians, the research team built model portfolios and charted their performance. They found that House members “earn statistically significant positive abnormal returns,” outperforming the market by 6 percentage points. Senators do even better, the authors say, citing their own earlier research from 2004. Senate portfolios “show some of the highest excess returns ever recorded over a long period of time, significantly outperforming even hedge fund managers,” with gains that are “both economically large and statistically significant.”

https://supchina.com/2020/04/09/more-than-240000-chinese-companies-declare-bankruptcy-in-the-first-two-months-of-2020/ More Than 240,000 Chinese Companies Declare Bankruptcy In The First Two Months Of 2020

I would also want occupancy and pricing curves for a period of the business' history, and also independently do some analysis of the surrounding area as that will be your tenant mix.

I've raised some cash, sold some of the visa and berkshire LEAPs i purchased a few weeks ago but I have kept the vast majority. If the rally continues I'll cash out of those and go back into holding those stocks. Going to hold the bank stocks, AT&T, phillip morris and get paid 7-8% div yields; going to hold exxon and iron mountain and get paid 10+% yields. Barring tobacco or oil literally going out of business, those I plan to hold those for a long time. Sitting around 10% cash which I'll hold onto if we see another big dip, and if needed I will go on some margin to bring that up to 20% if the bargains re-appear.

Unsurprisingly, the guy paid by insurance companies and writing for an insurance journal claims that business insurance does not cover this event. No conflict of interest here, I suppose?

LC, Huh? You know, I am getting old. I was referring to this post: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/login-over-http/msg386500/#msg386500 But mis-remembered Sanjeev's message. I'll show myself out :D

Have you read this? If so I am curious for your thoughts. It looks intriguing but I fear it could be a bunch of "if your employees don't have the freedom to tell the CEO to screw off, it illustrates failing moral courage and the company will go belly up!"

Meanwhile the politics section is likely ignored (and Sanjeev hinted it would be removed). I poured a little beer out for the soon-to-be departed subforum ;D

I was specifically referring to options on "dead men walking" so to speak (companies which have declared covenant breaches, things like that). Regardless I'll throw out some counterpoints: -They've got 400M of cash, not a lot of debt - can probably get thru 2020 lease and interest obligations -They may be eligible for lease forgiveness or modification due to COVID as other tenants are doing. -These are not anchor stores or locations. Property owner's may have difficulty kicking out BURL and finding a replacement tenant. May be easier to extend terms. -I agree the demographic may be hit harder by the pandemic and therefore slower to return to stores -On the other hand, this company has a long history and has shown to be quite resilient. I don't think it's a BK risk. Additionally, have you looked at Ross? I would think the similar thesis applies there although they appear slightly less levered.

Is this your first time buying puts on dead companies? I've done so in the past, hilariously usually breaking even. I've had companies technically in BK with 100s of millions in equity value, buying 6 month puts and having them breakeven. It can be infuriating.

Ah good point - I similarly had the total opposite experience for amazon fresh delivery. It is so full of people there are simply no delivery time slots available.

Just an anecdote, I ordered about $20 of stuff from Amazon yesterday and received it today. And not high volume items either (a dust collection bag and silicon wood glue applicator). I was expecting weeks, maybe a month delay but nope, one day turnaround - even faster than the normal 2-3 day delivery time. I was totally shocked.