LC

I think a lot of people are having the same problem. One potential solution, estimate the level at which you'd start buying hand-over-fist, on margin. Is it SP500 at 2000? 1800? Then you can create a curve from here to that terminal point and invest a portion of your dry powder along that curve.

I'm sure that's never been the case. ;) :P Haha no, still nobody on the ignore list yet...although I will admit I do gloss over a certain poster's posts ;D

I truly hope you are right and the regulatory bodies are wrong. No one is rooting for tragedy. Me too. It will allow our lives to return to normal as things re open as well as the market so we all hopefully will make some money. Fuck yes, brother.

Testing is not just hindsight. Right now there are thousands, ten thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions (https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus) Of people in the US with a variety of symptoms. Perhaps people who had coronavirus and are recovering. Testing confirms whether they have coronavirus or not, whether they are recovering, how long those periods last, and a bunch of other information that a viral professional is probably more aware of than I am. Essentially, it builds a more robust dataset of infected individuals. Right now we just have the worst-case groups being tested so your sample set it biased.

Fear is useful in that it helps you tread carefully. Too much and it is paralyzing. A healthy mix I think with both COVID and the markets is probably a good idea right now.

Additionally if the healthcare system does crack as you allude is a possibility, widespread self-care will be important. The question may become, how to manage your own/your family's symptoms as best you can. This requires time for professionals to discover, and time to communicate the message.

Similar Rk. I have some assets which would provide substantial cash; but I'd be paying out-the-ass to liquidate. For me to tap that I need much more confidence in where the world will be in 6 months. For now, I have about 15% cash and additional drips from the ole 9-5.

But this is one of the most important thing we can do - to buy as much time for both research into treatment, and to ease the burden on the healthcare system.

Gretzky didn't play hockey with a blindfold on. You need to know where the puck is to know where it is going. Testing is preferable to not testing. It really is that simple.

Cmon. The guy defunded CDC and a few years later CDC is behind the curve on testing. To say he has nothing to do with it, is going too far in one direction.

V and Brk.

I hear you. For a few of the names I mentioned 50% lower is not that far back in time. I have “nibbled” on HD, V, and FB. The others need to be significantly cheaper for me to really load up. If I don’t get fills, I will sit it out. I have been fully invested since 1997 so it’s not as if I am missing out. Just riding the elevator back down and back up again (perhaps). Well, maybe I was totally off on this one ;D ;D ;D I put another nibble in for V this morning.

I read somewhere (maybe this thread) that CDC finally is distributing 1MM test kits. This will help much more to gain a clear picture how the virus is spreading and severity.

Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor. However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing.

Chinese economic production is estimated to have slowed 25% due to the virus, which appears to be waning in China. So there's that. Though the economy is still operating at about 25% below its usual levels, activity should be fully restored by the end of April, Francoise Huang, senior economist at Euler Hermes, predicted in a note to clients. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/as-new-cases-of-coronavirus-subside-in-china-wuhan-told-to-go-back-to-work-idUSKBN20Y03W SP500 is down about 23% off the recent high, for context.

When too euphoric or too depressed, I find it helpful to seek out news from the other end of the spectrum, as a moderating factor: https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/china-shuts-all-16-temporary-coronavirus-hospitals-in-wuhan/ In a dramatic sign that the coronavirus crisis is improving in China, the last two of 16 temporary hospitals in the epicenter city of Wuhan have been shut down, according to a report. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/as-new-cases-of-coronavirus-subside-in-china-wuhan-told-to-go-back-to-work-idUSKBN20Y03W Some vital industries in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicenter of the coronavirus epidemic, were told they can resume work on Wednesday, a day after President Xi Jinping visited there for the first time since the outbreak began. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasquith/2020/03/11/when-can-we-expect-travel-to-return-to-normal-apple-reopens-90-of-china-stores-and-wuhan-closes-the-last-temporary-coronavirus-hospital/#47c18e705bc5 Today Apple has reopened 38 of their 42 stores on the mainland that were previously all shuttered. Wuhan which was the centre of the outbreak, and entirely quarantined to prevent the spread of the outbreak has just closed the last of their temporary Coronavirus hospitals. Note: there are still new cases and deaths in China ; but, well, it doesn't seem "as bad" as it was weeks ago. At least from an un-informed mainstream news perspective. It's been about 3 months since the virus was active in China - let's say another 3 months for containment, and another 3 on top of that to "return to normal". So maybe a 6-9 month period. I feel this is optimistic now as I am assuming no divergent events that I am wholly unqualified to speculate on (new viral strains, viral jumps to other species e.g. cattle, birds etc.)

Futures down 4.X% to about 2600. Personally thinking of selling call spreads.

Downwards if I had to bet. Some other news: -March madness 2020 without fans -NBA 2020 season cancelled -Tom Hanks & wife are infected?

Look for monopolies/oligopolies: (Sorry these may not all be "great ideas" i.e. buy them today, but just dumping a bunch) Visa MA as discussed at length MSFT certainly Bloomberg (lol) Adobe has a pretty decent moat Verizon/ATT in the wireless service industry; Comcast if you extend to wired The railroads, UNP as the pure play or Berkshire Berkshire of course you get top shelf insurance operations Disney in the entertainment/storytelling genre Mcdonalds in terms of fast food The Canadian banks are pretty moaty Nike I argue has a moat in various functions (one being talent acquisition) Paychex/ADP are semi-moaty in the payroll processing space. Especially for largeCo's. Amazon/Walmart have quite the moats

Seems more appetizing to hand-sanitize with overproof liquor in that case ;D Tonight is probably a red wine night. Some aglianico if I can find it.

Sold OOM Berkshire calls.

Well said.

Sold some PM puts in the morning and bought them back in the early afternoon.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without Update from S Korea: South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran. The steady decrease in cases has been attributed to a variety of factors, including mass testing, improved public communications and the use of technology. Extensive testing of members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which was linked to more than 60 per cent of the country’s cases, has been completed. South Korea has also come up with creative measures, including about 50 drive-through testing stations across the country, where it takes only 10 minutes to go through the whole procedure. Test results are available within hours. South Korea has been proactive in providing its citizens with information needed to stay safe, including twice daily media briefings and emergency alerts sent by mobile phone to those living or working in districts where new cases have been confirmed. Details about the travel histories of confirmed patients are also available on municipal websites, sometimes with breakdowns of a patient’s residence or employer, which can make them identifiable individually, leading to concerns about privacy.