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LC

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Everything posted by LC

  1. I bought V but similar thoughts I assume.
  2. 5.5MM shares traded hands today as prices went from 219->216, about 1.1B worth of stock, or 20% of the entire amount WB spent in 2019 repurchasing. But apparently there isn't enough volume for WB to make significant market repurchases? ??? ??? ???
  3. Hell, you could function as a hedge fund in the original sense of the term and buy the market with a % of your portfolio; then integrate your top 5/10 superior companies and trade around their relative values. At the very least it would appear to be a moderating factor to smooth out market gyrations, at best it would be a cause for out-performance. The other thing is that Turtle creek does limit their universe to mid-cap companies, so not the full market universe.
  4. Canyon Partners Sends Letter to Berry Global's Board of Directors https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canyon-partners-sends-letter-berry-230000756.html Berry management responded with the usual boilerplate.
  5. Selling short or buying put options on GOOGL as a way to hedge a long GOOG position would probably be considered a constructive sale (i.e. no different than if you just sold GOOG). You should look for tech-focused ETFs that closely track GOOG, something like XLK, VGT, IYW, FTEC...
  6. I have it in the back of my mind because of Andretta but personally I sold out for a quick 10% a while back. I'm not huge on the cards biz at this point of the cycle. Like I said earlier in this thread I think he's a capable CEO but it seems we are pretty late in the consumer credit cycle. These are still my personal thoughts: Structurally the company has challenges of course, but I always found him capable and therefore anything under his control I would be confident he can manage effectively. The big thing outside of his control is consumer credit tolerance.
  7. https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-warns-it-expects-coronavirus-to-spread-in-u-s-11582653829?mod=hp_lead_pos2 Given the 3-4 week incubation period it is probably already here in the US.
  8. I never know when, so I go in drips-and-drabs. In terms of cash-on-hand never more than 10% per week, which in the event of a "prolonged" downturn gives me at least 10-20 weeks to pick up shares; plus more as cash flows during those 10-20 weeks comes in (salary, dividends, etc.)
  9. I hope not, would like to buy more. Added to V today. Might join u guys on this MSGN trade for funsies.
  10. Very interesting - thanks for the context and a good lesson that one needs to be very, very wary of mid-cap credit risk. A factor of Turtle creek's strategy is the relative valuation trades/re-balancing within their portfolio. This strategy only works IFF you own very high-quality businesses with zero/near-zero probability of capital destruction. A difficult ask, to be sure. But, it allows you to potentially trade quite profitably within your portfolio, perhaps even ignoring absolute valuation.
  11. On this point, I would suggest reviewing the performance of Eurozone banks in their era of negative rates. The banks simply cannot make money in such an environment.
  12. The dude never impressed me with his writing or perceived returns. The research he performed did seem thorough, hopefully he will be successful.
  13. Or - he loves all his bank children equally, just some are more of his favorites. IMHO the interpretation with WB has always been the same: ignore what he says, look at what he does.
  14. I think that's exactly what he should be doing. He is already sitting on 100+B of cash to make a deal. Rates are super low to provide the remainder of financing. The reasonable solution is to maintain enough cash to make a big deal (if one ever comes along) and re-allocate any excess cash either internally or back to shareholders.
  15. Pretty wild that Berkshire payed 1.5% of US federal corporate taxes.
  16. Pretty good 30 min presentation about how they think about value investing.
  17. I've heard from somewhere a while back that the system is pretty popular in Israel. But I don't see it working in the current iteration of EVs for a couple of reasons. 1. For it to work, the battery should be generic. If the battery is the most important thing in the EV, then all the manufacturers will fight the model like crazy. 2. In the large range vehicles like Teslas and most of all that's coming to market the battery is large. More importantly it is very heavy. That means it has to sit low on the vehicle, otherwise it's makes the vehicle unstable. So long story short, you can't easily swap it. Battery swapping was a design goal of Model S and X. They positioned the battery so that it could be swapped in minutes. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-shuts-down-battery-swap-program-for-superchargers/ This is another reason Tesla and the auto industry should be sharing (i.e. licensing from Tesla) battery tech. Shared tech means shared battery design, which allows EVs of different makes/models to swap identical batteries. This in turn allows easier buildup of an EV charging network which increases adoption of EVs in general. Increased adoption = everyone wins.
  18. https://mule.substack.com/p/heterogeneous-compute-the-paradigm Interesting article for those interested in semiconductor architecture.
  19. These are developed based on Dr Stuart Mcgill's work, I do them too (in some fashion or another). I also find that leg strength and abdominal strength help in supporting the trunk and keeping the spine stabilized. Stay healthy! ;D
  20. https://www.dlapiper.com/en/us/insights/publications/2020/01/sec-proposes-changes-to-accredited-investor-definition/
  21. Not a value trap IMHO as I don’t think there will be terminal decline however it looks like a 3+ year transition period. But the banks in general don’t look so hot as rates approach zero. The institutional banks may fare better as they are not as dependent on consumer banking. Which it looks like WB agrees with as he sells down BAC and WFC but maintains JPM. USBank appears the outlier and I have some theory on it but it is anecdotal: an old colleague was a Sequoia analyst and relayed his meetings with Buffett and WB’s belief that USBank was the best managed of (larger) US banks. That may be why he did not sell. Just my 2 cents.
  22. Yes, but you have the optionality to refinance over and over again at virtually no cost. I just refinanced mine for 3.375% and minimal cost. My last refinance was last year, same thing. I refinance every half % rate change. It’s so easy now, from start to finish in 8 days Really? Do you mind who you used? I refinanced recently and it took a damn month with some (unbeknown to me) Mickey Mouse shop.
  23. My guess: a combination of explanations of the cash balance (including diatribe about high valuations); performance of the stock portfolio (Apple); and a bunch of the regular feel-good history lessons.
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