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Everything posted by LC
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What the problem? Just spark up next to him ;D
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I agree with the previous two posters. They are revamping their internal systems and controls. Poaching folks from other (better) banks to institute industry standard best practices throughout the org. Can be lucrative if you are in the right place at the right time.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2019/12/17/the-forbes-investigation-inside-the-secret-bank-behind-the-fintech-boom/#43a0c7f63c10
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The link Liberty posted directly above is a good primer.
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I like it. Happier that Visa got it vs. MC. https://blog.plaid.com/plaid-and-visa/
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Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)
LC replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
Just finished the first season of Hajime No Ippo, which is a Japanese manga/anime about amateur boxing. Not the deepest stuff ever but if you are into combat sports it's great for the gym. You can find the first season on youtube which makes it convenient to watch. -
Reminds me of NBA players and shooting the ball. In practice some of these guys put away shots with 95+% accuracy, in game conditions this drops significantly. Occurs even for un-defended shots such as free throws. They are constantly devising methods to better transfer practice knowledge to game time situations, i.e. 'meaningful practice'.
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in what investable process are we still in the early innings
LC replied to a topic in General Discussion
That too. Back to the topic: anti-aging :D -
in what investable process are we still in the early innings
LC replied to a topic in General Discussion
LC, I believe you are referencing the cause of IVF. I don't have any back up for that stat. But it was something that an older successful female PE executive told me. She has an autistic child and told me that. I have no reason to not believe her. She mentioned that there is an active network of female PE executives who meet as a support group of a sort to talk about raising autistic children. In my late 30s, my parents' nagging of me and my siblings to get married and have children early doesn't seem so unreasonable. These are the contributing factors of autism, as well as a host of other potential problems: Any women here will know the dangers of pregnancy as they age. I doubt there's an exact age despite my previous post but the point is the older the worse :( -
in what investable process are we still in the early innings
LC replied to a topic in General Discussion
Old sperm (post 35), old eggs (post 30). -
Solvay also makes some materials used for lithium batteries, but not sure how meaningful. Good luck!
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You can use excel but have to manually enter monthly balances and cash inflows/outflow per account, then combine to calculate IRR. It’s a pain so I just do it for the largest accounts.
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I would imagine so, similar to how stocks price ex-dividend. But, I could be completely wrong as I usually avoid spinoffs on the dates of trading. If there's trading specifically for shares without distribution rights usually there is a specific CUSIP and ticker as well, not sure if you have any mention of that.
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I believe it is based on the date. The shares are the same, but before the record date is “regular way” trading and so the market prices will be 100% ie reflecting ownership rights to SpinCo shares. After the record date will be ex-distribution pricing which will be at a discount because it does not include rights to SpinCo shares.
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BorgWarner perhaps? Doesn't seem too expensive, but tied pretty closely to the auto market.
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https://www.gatesnotes.com/About-Bill-Gates/Year-in-Review-2019 Bill Gates "year end letter".
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Cronin's passage trilogy was great.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-decade/from-opioid-deaths-to-student-debt-a-view-of-the-2010s-economy-in-charts-idUSKBN1YZ0AS Interesting look at how the US has changed over the past decade.
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If you are coming from a specialized field then an MBA is useful is you are trying to change careers like TheAiGuy says. This was my story essentially and it paid off for me a boatload times over. PHDs are incredibly useful as well to learn specific knowledge. Almost all of our quants are PHD or MS with heavy experience. It all depends where you are in your life and career, and what you are trying to accomplish. I just typed this and now WAIT WH-------- :D
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23% in the main account...the other IRAs/401Ks etc. are all invested in SP500 index so that will lead the overall number towards the index return. I should probably just dump it all into an index :D
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To truly answer the question, we can likely deduce the average value investor is not an Uber driver but rather a white collar worker who earns a reasonable amount more than the Uber/lyft driver. Therefor, the answer is Lexus and Acura’s. Toyota still hasn’t fixed the automatic acceleration problem, and even in 2019 there were cases when the driver pressed the brake and the car accelerated out of control. Toyota==Russian Rullette. Damn I was not aware. Good advice would be make sure to check the recalls for your VINs and even not the full recalls but also the service bulletins. Also check some car owner forums. My 2013 CRV hasn’t given any problems (knock on wood), bought it 3 years used with 20k miles. So there some anecdotal data if at all helpful. 2013 CRV is fine but don’t buy a new 2019 one. I heard their new engine has serious problems and the engine oil level increases as time passes by. However Honda is known for the poor quality of the transmission. They build their own tranny which uses a weird technology and a lot of Honda Odassy drivers say the tranny won’t last over 80k miles. Not sure if the CRV uses the same tranny. Alright, well you’re fuckin killing me here ;) No problems with the tranny (yet). Biggest problem is the actuator in cold weather. There’s a service bulletin out on it but based on my review the severity does not seem super high. Worst case it’s a 600$ fix. But I’ll look into the transmission- thx for the heads up. What do you drive Btw?
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It's a proven product and as Spek alluded, the industry does not embrace change. For good reason I might add: if you screw up the envelope you could be looking at labor and material repair costs that are exponential orders of magnitudes greater than saving a bit vs Tyvek.
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To truly answer the question, we can likely deduce the average value investor is not an Uber driver but rather a white collar worker who earns a reasonable amount more than the Uber/lyft driver. Therefor, the answer is Lexus and Acura’s. Toyota still hasn’t fixed the automatic acceleration problem, and even in 2019 there were cases when the driver pressed the brake and the car accelerated out of control. Toyota==Russian Rullette. Damn I was not aware. Good advice would be make sure to check the recalls for your VINs and even not the full recalls but also the service bulletins. Also check some car owner forums. My 2013 CRV hasn’t given any problems (knock on wood), bought it 3 years used with 20k miles. So there some anecdotal data if at all helpful.
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You can model things very close to intuition but you need highly non-linear models that requires a lot of data points. For trading on info from 10-Q, I can assure you a huge problem is data issues. I’m not sure what you mean when you say lacking precision versus generalization. Are you talking about the bias variance tradeoff? The bias variance trade off is a more nuanced model requires more data to generalize well, so a 500 million data model should generalize very well unless your model complexity is very high. They are using consumer credit data to estimate 10Q reported sales. There are most definitely 100s of millions of data points for consumer data, market data - we build various types of ML and NN models using this data and they still suffer from overfitting. In some cases (GBM) they actually are your parent's logistic regressions and decision trees...but we still run into the problem of overfitting, particularly with the NNs. We are purposefully using less data (large holdout samples) and other techniques to battle overfitting problem. Where you run into real problems is specific risk stripe data such as ops risk where you only have a handful of incidents over 20 years. Difficult to model using any methodology.
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Toyota or Honda. Look at what the Uber/lyft drivers use.