LC

According to that I will live to 83. Better start saving

Agreed, fascinating. Good article and project

Wow, this is terrible news. By all accounts Sergio was a good man and will be missed. Rest in peace.

There's about 135MM drinkers in the US. Based on a 75 year lifespan you have a 4.8% cumulative probability (well, kind of) from dying from alcohol over your lifetime.

I would try finding alumni that work in related shops, try to get a gig thru them, make a good name for urself, then try to make a jump to the fund u are interested in.

you can try to value the largest subsidiaries on a standalone basis.

SD I take a similar strategy but slightly different: What you're talking about is after a dividend CUT. Usually that happens when $h1t hits the F@N. I took positions in PM (philip morris intl) and CMP (compass minerals - salt mines) during higher-than-normal dividend yields. The thinking on my part is as you mentioned previously - reversion to the mean when you're dealing with "good" or "stable" businesses. Can you talk about the differences of these two approaches - i.e. jumping in after a huge cut (where the old ladies may be selling along with the investment funds) vs. jumping in during business slowdowns (where maybe just the investment funds are selling) ? In other words, your approach is enticing but it takes some cojones to hop in during such times of real distress.

I would suggest finding some "dead" time: commuting to work, break between class periods, etc. to do reading. I don't know what reading will work best, but I can tell you what I did (over about a 2 year period, reading about 1hr per day on the subway to work): First I read about 5-6 of the "value investing canon". Buffett Partnership letters, Klarman's Margin of Safety, Graham's Intelligent Investor, Greenblatt's Little Book, Howard Marks memos...pick about 5 or 6. I think once I hit Howard Marks, they all started sounding the same. Then I would find random companies that seemed interesting. Someone's blog, an stock screener, something in the news, or something original from myself. Never check the market cap. I would order the most recent 10K and read it with a Sharpie in hand. Once I was done reading it I would say "what would I personally pay for this company" and stick that number on the cover, along with the date. Then I would compare it to the market cap. Did that about...say 30-50 times and eventually got bored. That's when I realized I am no professional investor, it's just not fun for me. But I think it was a worthwhile endeavor: you really learn to value a company this way. Then you get older, you hear the same news about the same companies, you can take the mental shortcuts because (1) you know the company and (2) you know how to value companies. So you place your bet.

So I had this thought yesterday reading this forum. Since January I haven't done a single bit of stock research (combination of market highs, new house, and general life stuff). And when I post here I feel a bit guilty because I am not contributing much in terms of stock ideas lately. But it made me wonder, if you polled everyone on this board, what is the one stock or asset that has made them each the most money over time? I.e. trading in/out of US banks, or BRK, Fairfax, etc. etc. Of course, there are some situations like Eric where you make a craptastic ton of cash on a single event which will probably never reoccur. But over a lifetime, most I feel will make it trading in/out of stocks they "know". So why not go even further: just study one business/stock - for your entire life? I mean, if you become the de-facto expert, and you trade that stock with a value mindset (margin of safety, general conservatism, etc.) I think you would do pretty damn well. Just food for thought.

Pretty cool, thanks as always Joel for your contributions

I don't have too much experience but I did not get the sense these were long term value guys. More like medium term catalyst/ event driven stuff with more frequent churn.

http://www.telafinance.com/blog/can-you-hold-for-forty-years.html Figured the board may enjoy this short read.

No I don't want to be the top of the top at my craft. Frankly in most cases I have seen, you need to be born with a generational talent to reach that level. It is not a developed skill. I'd wager the majority of those in the 0.1% were born there (or somewhere close) vs. developing skill to get there. But to me none of that matters - you play your cards as well as you can and hope for the best.

Who gives a $#*@? Something about jealousy being the most boring of the sins.

I consulted with auditors for specific issues. They are in a tight spot: limited information, and perverse incentives. Difficult to make change when the cards are stacked against you.

Thanks for regurgitating this one. I remember it was one of the first pitches I saw on this site, soon after I joined this forum. I never really understood the industry or the drama surrounding the stock at the time, but I wish I had!

I've argued for something similar to this. The question I have is, what is a good timeframe to judge a long-term investment manager? 5 years? 10? Let's say it's 5 years. If I were to pay the "perfect" manager - i.e. someone to make all my investment decisions for me, I argue that the compensation should be a performance fee of X% for all gains over the 5 year treasury. No management fee. The treasury is truly risk-free. Allocating to S&P index entails risk (equities could be overpriced, you could buy a basket of bonds or real estate instead, for example, and this is part of the investment manager's job of allocating capital to risky assets). Which is not a huge hurdle. The 5-year is aprox 2.75% these days.

We are in a giant bull market. And the banks have benefitted greatly from this. I don't think the next five years will look similar to the last.

I agree with Shalab. You can tell yourself how you "should" react to a large MTM decline. You don't know how you will feel until you experience it. This is where youth helps. Losing 50% on a 2K investment is a lot different than losing 50% on a 200k position.

Teachers put up with children all day. Cops literally risk their lives every day. I think 100k/year is fine given these facts.

FWIW I feed them this stuff: https://www.tasteofthewildpetfood.com/cat-formulas/rocky-mountain-feline-formula-with-roasted-venison-smoked-salmon/ 42% protein, with 2 cats 1 bag lasts about a month, maybe more. At $30/bag you're looking at 50c/day per cat.

Yep. 2 cats...12+ years on both. Only dry food.

middle management.

Let's also realize the LF models built for CCAR are designed to minimize NCL, in addition to the backwards-looking limitation you describe above.

This is incredible: I have determined after careful anaylsis, that everything for a destroyed carcass at the time and carnage that is left over. "Oh man, the BABY LAMBs are crying for help, and the SLAUGHTER OF THEIR KNIFE!!!!! Everything will be the SAME except for the dates, and I will triple check, and probably still have errors. The ACCR shareholder's MOTTO during the ONSLAUGHT: PAIN! What the hell?? :o