giofranchi

Gio

No, no! I still hold a basket of short positions, but that is no more than 8% my firm’s capital. FFH is around 30%, I hold no Gold, and cash is around 20%. As I have said, I possess other means to make money than the stock market, and my firm’s equity is up 20% YTD. If I may ask: how old are you? Gio

Good piece by Mr. David Hay. For those who don’t like CAPE, please look at Figure 17 on page 5: the stock market is probably going nowhere for the next 10 years… And I don’t see why anyone should disregard this information as useless in his/her investing decisions. Of course, if you are as good as Packer or Eric, you might very well overlook what everybody else (the market in general) is doing… The law of gravity to you clearly doesn’t apply! (And I say this with a mixture of envy and great respect!) Everyone else, first of all, must know his/her self: I guess chances are you are subject to the law of gravity. Just like I know I am!! ;) Gio EVA+11.22.2013+NA+.pdf

WOW! That was a fabulous article!! Packer, congratulations for you outstanding track record! ;) Cheers, Gio

Yes! Just a few hours ago I have read the post by the Brooklyn Investor and I have thought about your suggestion to look at POST! Good idea and thank you! ;) Gio

+1 I agree 100% Gio

Well, he might have a point, but I guess it is not much relevant, after all… Mr. Hussman, who I think is a very reliable “observer of stock market past”, identifies a syndrome called “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, yields rising”, and he has shown many times that in the past, whenever that syndrome has occurred, steep market losses have followed. And by overvalued he says CAPE must be above 18… Therefore, if it is 25 or 20 makes little difference… Right? I am not saying the future is bound to repeat the past… What I am saying is that, particularly in a deleveraging, I don’t like an “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, yields rising” syndrome… It simply speaks of overconfidence to me… This being said, even Mr. Hugh Hendry has said the bullish trend might go on for the next 3-4 years… So, what do I know? Actually, what I know is that I am not “a man with a hammer”, I mean I don’t have to rely only on equity investing to build wealth. I have other means to make money. Therefore, if the bullish trend truly goes on for the next 4 years, I will grow my firm’s equity at a satisfactory rate, even while proceeding carefully with the stock market. :) Gio

World GDP vs. World Stock Market Gio

I tend to agree… yet, 41 to 46… who really knows?! ??? What I believe is that I will make money in both cases! ;D ;D ;D Gio

Ok, thank you! Do you have a graph by AAII that goes back to the early ‘90s? Does it tell a very different story from the one by The Investor Intelligence? If so, can you post it, please? Gio

Thank you, tombgrt! I have just purchased the book! :) Gio

Well, despite volatility, the fact remains that % of bears has never been so low since the beginning of the picture I posted: 1990. We are not talking about fluctuations in confidence… People have never been this confident in the last 23 years! Even during the internet bubble % of bears was higher than it is today… So, I don’t see how the consensus could be “we are in a bubble” and at the same time people could be so much confident… Except, of course, that consensus is not “we are in a bubble”! ;) Gio

Yes! But what you say is also true for the “bubble talk” bmichaud referred to, isn’t it? In other words, the “bubble talk” and the % of bears both are arguments about sentiment, aren’t they? Therefore, my question: why do they seem to point in such different directions? Gio

bmichaud, how does the reasoning about “bubble talk” fit with the picture in attachment? It seems to me there is not much buying power still left unused… Gio

"A New Kind Of Trigger Point" by Mr. Charles Gave Gio Daily+11.21.13.pdf

Gio

LOL!! I have never even tried to listen at 2x speed… That’s why it takes me so long to finish an audiobook!! ;D ;D ;D Gio

You really have backup plans?! To tell the truth, I have never thought about them… I tend to think: “If I fail, who else could be successful?!” ;D ;D ;D No, seriously, I proceed one choice at a time, and simply try to make each choice the best one possible. Then, I almost never worry about the outcome. Probably, I am just a reckless fool!! ;D Gio

Well, probably my view has always been the one of the entrepreneur… Actually, I have never worked for another firm… Therefore, I also understand onyx1 point of view… It’s the same one I would suggest to my employees and collaborators! ;D Gio

What I don’t agree is taking this decision lightly. Some posts seem to suggest: you are still very young, so grab the opportunity… You never know… Something good might happen… If not, you’d be always in time to make a change… I don’t agree. This is a strategic decision. It matters. And I have never taken a strategic decision lightly. If you want to grab the opportunity, very well then, do it! But you must think about it thoroughly. Take your time. And make sure you are at the end very confident with your choice and all the consequences it might entail. I believe this is your first duty. Cheers! Gio

I find the process of writing about investment ideas extremely useful to clarify my thoughts. When I write, ideas seem to come to mind that previously weren’t there… of course they were, but probably weren’t very well articulated yet and remained a little blurry. One of the reasons I like the board so much is that it gives you the chance to write about your investments and, of course, to get very competent feedback too! But, as you have said, that's just me! :) Gio

Hey Kraven! Be patient! You know I am in love… and it is obvious I have my head in the clouds… How could it be different?! You shouldn’t have given me such terrific advices, if you wanted a “rational Gio”!! Your fault!! ;D ;D ;D ;D Gio I do my best. Now that you are a couple, she needs to see that you are sensitive and caring. Tell her frequently that her best friend is really attractive and dresses quite stylishly. Make sure that when they are together and you come upon them that you hug the friend first and hold it a few seconds too long. When you release, say "that feels good and you smell really nice". This will show your girlfriend that you're not afraid to give compliments and are good with her friends. does that work ? wouldn't that led to arguments ? GK, You are still very young… As you grow older, you will realize you don’t have to ask!! Just do what Kraven suggests!! And you will forever be grateful!! ;D ;D ;D Gio

I was afraid I would have screwed something going forward… But now that I know how to be sensitive and caring, I am sure I cannot miss!! Like The Beach Boys say: “Everything is going to turn out all right”. ;D ;D ;D Cheers! Gio

WOW! For a moment I had thought you were his boss!! ;D ;D ;D Gio

Hey Kraven! Be patient! You know I am in love… and it is obvious I have my head in the clouds… How could it be different?! You shouldn’t have given me such terrific advices, if you wanted a “rational Gio”!! Your fault!! ;D ;D ;D ;D Gio