giofranchi

+100 It might very well be so, although I don’t necessarily believe that, and I am going to explain why. Anyhow, even if it were so, ask yourself the following: “What do I prefer? To be lost at sea, in a dark night, with a completely starless sky, and without compass at all. Or to be lost at sea, in a dark night, with a completely starless sky, but having a compass, although not a very precise one?” Of course, the answer depends very much on what “not a very precise one” means: if it points south, better to be without compass at all! Vice versa, if it gives you a general idea of where the north is located, even if it errs by some degrees, well, then I would certainly prefer to have that compass. By itself it won’t save me, good judgment and sound reasoning on my part will always be required, but it will provide some help. Now, why do I think that history might err by some degrees, but doesn’t point south? The answers lies in the so-called “LINDY EFFECT”, that Mr. Taleb describes in his book “Antifragile”: This basically means the probability a book, that has been around for 2000 years, will still be relevant 2000 years from now is the same of the probability a book, that has been around for 10 years, will still be relevant 10 years from now. If you think of it carefully, biographies are only “gates” to a knowledge that has been around for much much longer. “Keynes 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman” is a gate to “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money”, “The Einstein of Money” is a gate to “Security Analysis”, “Prophet of Innovation: Joseph Schumpeter and Creative Destruction” is a gate to “History of Economic Analysis”, “The Life of Adam Smith” is a gate to “The Wealth of Nations” (ok, “The Wealth of Nations” doesn’t need any gate at all!), “Benjamin Franklin, An American Life” is a gate to “Poor Richard Almanack” and his own autobiography, etc. I can already see a new Warren Buffett biography 100 years from now, that will be the gate to his shareholder letters, and I guess the content of those letters will still be very relevant! So, the biographies might be flawed. I agree, no doubt about that. But, if you dig deeper, if you go where those biographies might ultimately lead, there is much more robust and thus enduring material to be studied and to be used as a guide. giofranchi

Gary Shilling's 2013 Investment Themes giofranchi insight-0113b.pdf

Hi Gio, it's Warren Buffett. I don't know where he said it :( I thought I'd add a quote in my signature to keep me focused :) Ouch! Shame on me! :-[ He is the best! 8) Do you mind my using the same quote? I like it too much, and I guess twacowfca won’t get upset, because I wouldn’t trade his great uncle’s wisdom for anything less than WEB’s. ;D ;D ;D giofranchi

hellsten, pardon my ignorance, but whose quote is the one below? "You do things when the opportunities come along. I've had periods in my life when I've had a bundle of ideas come along, and I've had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I'll do something. If not, I won't do a damn thing." It looks like something the great Henry Singleton might have said… but I guess it is someone else instead! :) Thank you, giofranchi

Q4 2012 Letter to Shareholders, with a discussion about the new investment in Herbalife. giofranchi Third-Point-Q4-2012-Investor-Letter-TPOI.pdf

Hi Hawk4value, what I meant is just that their net income during the first 9 months of 2012 has been $0.99 per common units and they paid out $1.595 per common units (see file in attachment). Reconciliation is very easy and straightforward: from net income you calculate EBITDA, summing depreciation and amortization, then from EBITDA you just subtract cash paid for interest and maintenance capital expenditure. That’s all it takes to get from net income to distributable cash flow. Of course, there are also class B units, which receive distributions as well: during the first 9 months of 2012 each class B unit received a $0.9 distribution. During the first 9 months of 2012, net income was $217 million, distributable cash flow was $354 million, they distributed $319 million, $298 million to common units, and $21 million to class B units. Hope this helps, giofranchi BWP_Q3-12_Earnings_Release_Final1.pdf

Sportgamma, I have “surfed” your website: very interesting, congratulations! I am curious: why did you write “I am skeptical about stories and with using the past to predict the future”? I can understand that stories might just be temporary fads… but the past? Isn’t the study of past history useful? Isn’t the study of past human behavior useful? I am reading the latest by Mr. Marks and he starts like this: I also put great emphasis on the study of history. giofranchi

Yes! I knew that: I remember him saying that Delta Lloyd was the only stock he knew of that could double and still be cheap! ;) I know and I agree with you! My comment was just on the general state of the financial industry in Europe today. Certainly Delta Lloyd might be much more robust than average! Thank you! giofranchi

Sportgamma, generally I don’t like life insurance. And it seems they are quite concentrated on life insurance. Anyway, I always want to know about management: who are they? You know what I am looking for! ;) Thank you, PS I tend to agree with Edward as far as highly levered european financial institutions are concerned. giofranchi

Well, although Mr. Einhorn has clearly still to prove himself as a businessman, I think he recognized the fact that insurance + investment acumen generally is better that retail + investment acumen. Insurance tends to be much less subject to all those changes that only Mr. Bezos saw and nobody else. Insurance basically is exploiting opportunities and risk management, both activities at which I think Mr. Einhorn excels. giofranchi

Interview with Mr. Felix Zulauf: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/FMS-Interview-with-Felix-Zulauf.php giofranchi

Kiron Sarkar's 2013 Forecast. giofranchi 2013_Forecast.pdf

Mine was credited last December 27, 2012... But I guess international settlements differ much from country to country... giofranchi

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/online-learning-en-masse/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29 giofranchi

Entering into 2013. giofranchi entering-into-2013-part1.pdf entering-into-2013-part2.pdf

Herbalife: Quote of the Day http://www.viewfromtheblueridge.com/2013/01/07/herbalife-quote-of-the-day-2/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+viewfromtheblueridge%2FJkgK+%28The+View+from+the+Blue+Ridge%29 giofranchi

Thank you Joel, hope someday we will be partners in OAK! ;) giofranchi

On the contrary giofranchi!! You do not sound deferential -- you sound sincere. And, it was your sincerity, I think, that prompted me to mention you. So, if anyone was being deferential, it was me being so to you. Frankly, while we're on the topic, your writing has been excellent on investing and your approach and thinking about owner-operators fits with much of how I try to invest. So, thanks to you as well! Kiltacular and rjstc, really too kind of you! My financial knowledge clearly cannot even try to match Parsad’s, twacowfca’s, or Ross812’s. Anyway, I hope to bring a little perspective from the point of view of a business owner, who generates (a little) fcf and aims at making the best use of it. :) giofranchi

Joel, thank you very much for posting this! I will read it as soon as possibile! I have already noticed two things: 1) You finally decided not to invest in OAK: no plan to do so in the future either? 2) No cash at all in your portfolio: as long as you can find some bargains, you plan to always stay 100% invested, regardless of the general market price level? Thank you very much and congratulations! giofranchi

Well, I really hate to sound too deferential… But I think there is a reason for it: twacowfca made me know very well LRE, which I do believe will proceed with making a lot of money for my firm in the years ahead. And he did that completely for free! Maybe, I expressed my gratitude too emphatically… But I don’t really care. It seems to me the least thing I could do! ;) giofranchi

writser, you brought up a good point with the Shell example. But that’s just an example. Many situations might be different. Think, for instance, about your cash reserves: let’s say a company has listed shares only denominated in USD. And you are waiting for a good entry point, maybe 50% below the actual price… Ok, 50% is way too much, but it just simplifies the math: with 1 Euro right now you could buy 2 shares, instead with 1 Euro you want to buy 4 shares. Now the market experiences a 50% correction and your stock just follows the market down the same amount. If the exchange rate EURUSD is unchanged, you actually meet your objective of buying 4 shares of the company with 1 Euro. On the other hand, if the USD strengthened against the Euro (like it usually happens during a market correction), let’s say the USD is up 25% against the Euro, with 1 Euro you can now buy just 3 shares of the company. Had you put your cash reserves in USD, instead of keeping them in Euros, after a 50% decline in the stock price, you would be able to buy 4 shares. So, one way you end up owning only 3 shares of the company, the other way you end up owning 4 shares. Currencies do matter. giofranchi

A little bit dated, but still interesting articles, to get a sense of Mr. Ergen's strategy. giofranchi Dish_Network_aims_for_smarter_phones_simpler_bills.pdf Pursuit_of_wireless_spectrum_raises_possibilities_for_Dish_Network.pdf

Well, it surely might! But I don’t know anything about electric cars… and I don’t invest in a company I know nothing about, just because someone I admire has invested… Most of the times for the worse: I didn’t invest in BAC, though everybody else suggested me to do so, because I couldn’t find the time to dig deep enough into BAC! >:( Vice versa, I think I know a thing or two about value investing. ;) And also Fosun International is denominated in HKD. If I had to choose, I would invest in Fosun. But I am not in a hurry to do so. I will study carefully what they do and keep them monitored for a long time. Then, if I really like what I see, and the right opportunity comes, I will finally pull the trigger. giofranchi

Eric Sprott on paper vs physical gold: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-05/sprott-and-biderman-paper-vs-physical-gold giofranchi

Mr. David Hay on the importance of the currency in which investments are denominated. giofranchi 588_eva1.4.13na.pdf