giofranchi
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Everything posted by giofranchi
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Well, given how the market responded to the government intervention risk, it is not clear at all to me that many investors were perfectly aware of it! Reading all the bear arguments in the VRX thread, and believe me I have done so!, government intervention was at the bottom of the list (if in the list at all!), until it went to n.1 all of a sudden! Of course, I also make many mistakes: I must admit that, if I had thought about the government intervention danger at all, I had dismissed it as a very low probability without giving it further thought. Later further thought is exactly what I have given to this subject, after I was caught off guard… Cheers, Gio
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Great respect for Mr. Ergen... But of course I cannot like this latest move of his! Dish Network files FCC petition to deny Charter-TWC merger http://seekingalpha.com/news/2827876-dish-network-files-fcc-petition-to-deny-charter-twc-merger Cheers, Gio
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Picasso, of course I agree with you: TDG is selling for a high multiple these days, no doubt about that! And, if a more serious market correction is coming, that multiple will surely compress, no doubt about this either! But my idea with a great business that grows fast is always the same: I want to own a meaningful amount, in case no market crash comes our way and its multiple doesn’t compress; at the same time leaving a lot of room to average down, should a market crash come our way instead and consequently should its multiple compress. This way I’ll make money, if the business keeps growing its fcf at 20% yearly and its multiple stays high (basically unchanged). At the same time, I keep the opportunity to purchase a lot more, if a rare opportunity materializes. This is my usual strategy simply because the period of time these great compounding machines trade at a lower multiple tends to be much shorter than the period of time they trade at lofty multiples… You might end up waiting a very long time before having the opportunity of buying them, if you require a low multiple at all costs… Furthermore, even if you get the chance of buying at a low multiple, if you are not willing to hold them at a higher multiple, you’d end up selling them pretty soon, imo leaving lots of money on the table. You might believe it or not, but I have reduced my investment in VRX because I think government intervention introduces a risk I don’t feel able to evaluate with enough conviction, and I don’t like such a risk especially because VRX uses lots of leverage… In other words, I have reduced my investment in VRX because I think government intervention renders it a less predictable business… Later, when I had time to read what I could find about the history of government intervention in the pharma industry, I mustered much more conviction and I bought back a large part of what I had sold! Cheers, Gio
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Interesting list of companies, with Apple at n.16: These Are the 25 Smartest Companies in the World http://www.inc.com/peter-economy/the-25-smartest-companies-in-the-world.html?cid=sf01001 Cheers, Gio
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Here is How Carl Icahn’s Picks Lost Twice As Much As The Market in Q3 http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/here-is-how-carl-icahns-picks-lost-twice-as-much-as-the-market-in-q3-377233/ Cheers, Gio
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Wow! So young!... You have taken the snowball metaphor quite literally!! Good for you! ;) Welcome to the board, and thank you for your first, very thoughtful post! Cheers, Gio
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The new iMac's biggest changes? The keyboard and trackpad http://www.wired.com/2015/10/imac-new-keyboards-trackpads/?mbid=social_twitter Cheers, Gio
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Yes, I do. Cheers, Gio
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Dazel, you know I have never been a naysayer! On the contrary, I have always said I believe FFH’s macro thesis will ultimately be proven right. I had sold some months ago simply because I think it is easier to make money selling smartphones, selling pharmaceutical products, selling software, or selling aerospace components… than making macro forecasts! Won’t you agree? This being said, I have recently bought back a meaningful amount of FFH, because I think it might be a good idea to use it as “ready cash”, especially now that their macro thesis is beginning to be proven right. Cheers, Gio
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How the Carl Icahns of the World Benefit Firms but Not Workers
giofranchi replied to giofranchi's topic in General Discussion
I don’t understand if you are serious or only trying to be sarcastic… but clearly, if after two decades of marriage (or two minutes for that matter!) you still love your wife only because of her looks… she really must have chosen her husband unwisely… misery is guaranteed anyway. Cheers, Gio -
How Tom Wolfe Became … Tom Wolfe http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2015/10/how-tom-wolfe-became-tom-wolfe?utm_content=buffer53489&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer This looks like another very interesting article by Michael Lewis. Enjoy! Cheers, Gio
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Upsetting the Apple car http://www.economist.com/news/business/21644149-established-carmakers-not-tech-firms-will-win-race-build-vehicles?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/cars_and_technology Cheers, Gio
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I think it is quite amazing that Apple's Mac keeps growing (or at least staying flat), while the whole PC industry suffers! http://seekingalpha.com/article/3562226-apple-mac-increases-market-share-amidst-pc-downdraft?app=1&auth_param=7i5hb:1b1fkum:90cefe46ef18c2f6b8a8aa7a339c2ccf&uprof=25 Of course, if you think the article is just spam... don't read it! ;) Cheers, Gio
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FDA Accepts Supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for DALVANCE® (dalbavancin) http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fda-accepts-supplemental-new-drug-application-snda-for-dalvance-dalbavancin-300157164.html Cheers, Gio
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Believe me: I got the message the first time! When Liberty pointed it out! ;) Personally, I agree with the last article I posted the link to, and I find this idea very true: that each year a new model of mobile device comes out Apple’s competitive position is thought to be seriously threatened… Basically the reason why it is 10 years I have been hearing why Apple is going to encounter unsurmountable obstacles, while instead it has always kept growing and has always kept making lots of money for its shareholders. If that view weren’t relevant anymore today, I guess Apple would not be trading at such a low multiple… Cheers, Gio
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Elon Musk about Apple's automobile ambitions Cheers, Gio
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It seems to me Mr. Howley is very focused on how to use TDG’s balance sheet the best way possible… Though lots of leverage is cause for concern most of the time, I think TDG might be the exception. Of course, it is not cheap, but it has still lots of room to grow, and even with a significant contraction in the multiple it is selling for TDG might still turn out to be a good investment. This being said, I’ll now consider an investment in Heico! Thank you, Gio
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Thank you marazul! Let me ask you, if I may: do you also hold an investment in TDG, or have decided to concentrate only in HEI.A? Cheers, Gio
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VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
giofranchi replied to giofranchi's topic in Investment Ideas
Well, if the stock keeps falling, VRX will become a much smaller percentage of those portfolios you mentioned. If those managers like to keep VRX a fixed percentage of their portfolios, they will have to buy more. Right? Cheers, Gio -
VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
giofranchi replied to giofranchi's topic in Investment Ideas
All this simply misses the point I was making: I said AZ_Value should be more careful to accuse publicly anyone of lying. You then answered my post, saying VRX has not proved anything… Imo they have proved they were not lying, and that’s all I was talking about. Cheers, Gio -
https://www.scribd.com/doc/283949360/The-Collected-Wisdom-of-Seth-Klarman#download Cheers, Gio The-Collected-Wisdom-of-Seth-Klarman.pdf
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Why Apple Still Leads In Mobile Devices Over Microsoft And Google http://seekingalpha.com/article/3556426-why-apple-still-leads-in-mobile-devices-over-microsoft-and-google Cheers, Gio
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VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
giofranchi replied to giofranchi's topic in Investment Ideas
Ah! Ok! Now you are saying that they lied some years ago and, instead of keeping quiet and waiting for the storm to pass, they have intentionally brought up the subject again… Lying again!... In a SEC filing!... Remember all those accusations about “power point investing”?... Come on! If they are so fond of lying to shareholders, at least you’d expect them to do it again through a power point presentation, wouldn’t you? But no… Instead, they have chosen to lie again in a document that has legal validity… It doesn’t make any sense to me… But of course you could choose to believe whatever you want! Cheers, Gio -
Sincerely, that is less than I thought… Cheers, Gio