giofranchi

Of course they cannot pay dividends with offshore cash. Am I wrong? But could they buy back their shares? Thank you! Gio

I agree! The title is ridiculous and his conclusions are ridiculous too… But offshore cash (a mountain of offshore cash!) is true… Therefore, let’s just say that I am interested in hearing what people on this board think about the offshore cash issue! Cheers, Gio

By the way, Liberty, what’s your view about offshore cash? Isn’t it a problem? Carl Icahn apparently thinks it is… And has said so in his latest video. Cheers, Gio

This works imo for “good news”… Instead, I want to post as many “bad news” as I can find… If they can be dismissed with a shrug of the shoulders, well I have lost the time of a click! ;) Cheers, Gio

Well, I don't know if it is interesting, but I surely got lucky… I have put the half I sold in FFH, which appreciated almost 5% in just a few days… In the meantime I have gathered enough information to believe I had overreacted, and that the government intervention threat is much less serious than I had thought… That’s why I bought back some yesterday. I still own less shares than before, because I still think government intervention is an unknown, and will probably remain so during the whole presidential campaign. Cheers, Gio

Ahah!!! ;D ;D Usually I post and leave anyone to judge the content of those articles… But I agree with you… This is too much!! Cheers, Gio

Apple’s real cash pile is 99% smaller than you think http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apples-real-cash-pile-is-99-smaller-than-you-think-2015-10-07?dist=beforebell Cheers, Gio

I am not sure I understand… Could you elaborate a bit more? Thank you! Gio

I sold half my investment, spent a few days trying to gather as many information as I could about the history of government intervention in the pharma industry (which I still think is the biggest unknown here), then I bought back some yesterday. Cheers, Gio

Surface Pro 4 Vs Surface Pro 3: What's The Difference? http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonkelly/2015/10/06/microsoft-surface-pro-4-vs-surface-pro-3-whats-the-difference/?utm_campaign=Forbes&utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_channel=Technology&linkId=17757890 Cheers, Gio

Ok, no problem: I meant he should be careful to accuse publicly someone else of lying. Because, if you are later proven wrong, you simply lose all credibility. Period. AZ_Value wrote: “let me say right away as categorically as I possibly can that the $99M [in Sanitas cash generated] claimed by Valeant is a lie”. VRX instead has explained why it is the accurate number. And filed its replied with the SEC. Now, as I have said, you should be more careful with public accusations of that sort, which later turn out to be unfounded. I hope my poor English has not prevented me from explaining my thought clearly enough this time! ;) Cheers, Gio

He hasn't got time for that, he has to run two businesses you know!! And do you think that Twitter spam-feed is going to fill itself?! He should be much much much more careful… Someone who accuses publicly anyone else to have told a lie… Because that’s the exact word he used!... And then is proven blatantly wrong… Should at least keep quiet for, let’s say,… a decade?! ;) When you clearly don’t know how to behave, you simply lose credibility on all fronts. Cheers, Gio Someone is finally putting forth some decent analysis and you want to silence them... Brilliant. Just stfu. Come on! You had promised! Don’t you remember? It was just a few days ago… ;) By the way, why do you keep repeating that I run two businesses? Actually, they are three! You don’t believe that?!... Why would I say so, if it weren’t the truth? I really don’t understand you… Cheers, Gio

It's far from clear to me that Valeant has disproven anything that AZ has said, but even if we assume that they have: Someone who is ultimately wrong, despite having reasonably good reasons for their beliefs, should just keep quiet for a decade? What sort of logic is that? How disturbing. That’s not what I have said. Read more carefully. You get disturbed because you don’t pay attention. Gio

I think my view of the pharma and biotech industry is perfectly in line with his. Of course, I also agree with all he had to say about VRX. A good interview imo. Cheers, Gio

Sincerely, you are right: every single thing you have written has already been discussed many times on this thread… And repeating them over and over again would add nothing to the discussion. If you are interested, I would suggest you to read with much carefulness Liberty’s posts on this thread: they have addressed all your doubts innumerable times! Cheers, Gio

I don’t agree. Period. They have addressed EXACTLY all those points that have bothered me the most. And for that I am very grateful! Of course, most of them I had already answered myself, but to receive a positive confirmation is always useful. Cheers, Gio

He should be much much much more careful… Someone who accuses publicly anyone else to have told a lie… Because that’s the exact word he used!... And then is proven blatantly wrong… Should at least keep quiet for, let’s say,… a decade?! ;) When you clearly don’t know how to behave, you simply lose credibility on all fronts. Cheers, Gio

Well, if the badco + the goodco grows at the same rate of the goodco, then I don’t understand the difference between the badco and the goodco. If I am right you are saying the badco is sort of a runoff… it generates cash, but its value gets to zero quickly… have I understood correctly? The goodco, instead, generates cash and its value keep increasing, it is in other words a compounding machine. And a company which is 100% a compounding machine grows faster than a company that is 80% a compounding machine and 20% assets that generate cash while decreasing in value until they become worthless. Cheers, Gio

I have founded it very useful, just like I have founded VRX’s responses during the Allergan saga very useful. Anything that makes the picture clearer, increases predictability imo. Therefore, I think it is worthwhile. Cheers, Gio

Well, if and when the iPhone gets to be uncool, I certainly would admit I was wrong and sell my investment. But I don’t think a product should be “rare” to be perceived as cool… A product that is necessary, is always carried around, and which has no real competition might be perceived as cool almost by default… The iPhone imo is such a product. Brand awareness, anyway, as I have said, is only part of the thesis: technological improvements that might go on for still a very long time, the so-called Apple’s ecosystem, and a low stock price are the other parts. The whole thesis is what matters imo, because it raises the predictability of at least satisfactory results very much. Cheers, Gio

Well I think of it as a mix of brand awareness and actual usefulness: as I have said, I still think smartphones could be improved in many ways for a very long time… will this end sooner or later? Who knows? Technology has the habit of surprising us over and over again, right? Then, of course, there is the “latest fashion effect”: as I have said, women don’t buy a LV purse because they “need” it, or because it could perform wonders if compared to the one they already have… LV every year comes out with new models, which cost much more than an iPhone… And sells them!... Simply because we feel better owning and carrying around the new gadgets instead of the old. Imo it is the combo of the two that really matters… Add to it the so-called Apple “ecosystem”, all those other things you can enjoy if you own an iPhone, and imo Apple’s growth story might still go on for many years into the future. Finally, today we really have the luxury to take results as they come, because Apple is priced as a company that won’t grow… Therefore, if I am wrong, hopefully I won’t lose much money! Cheers, Gio

I think micro sensors will be implanted… And the new smartphones will be changed in order to receive many Tera bytes of data annually from those sensors. A constant monitoring and recording of our physiological parameters will be achieved in the not so distant future… At least, that’s what we all should hope for! And that’s in healthcare. Then Apple has the whole market of business customers that is huge and until now very little penetrated. How could they write new software and introduce new hardware in order to becoming more appealing to business is anyone guess! The newly introduced keyboard for the iPad, though, might be a first example. I think about smartphones like I think about LV purses: a purse is something women will always use… until a better product comes our way (and I don’t see anything on the horizon yet), a smartphone is something boys, girls, men, women, grandpas and grandmas will always use. You don’t ask “how much does it cost LV to produce a purse?”, and you don’t ask “what does the new LV purse accomplish that my old one can not?”… or do you? So, this is also something to be considered. Cheers, Gio

A bearish view on the new iPhone... Why I'm not upgrading to the iPhone 6s Plus http://fortune.com/2015/09/25/iphone-6s-plus-upgrade/?xid=soc_socialflow_twitter_FORTUNE Of course, I don't agree. Instead, I think there are still lots of improvements that could be achieved and introduced both in hardware and in software. Cheers, Gio

And would you put a 15x multiple on the goodco? ???... Given how fast VRX has grown as a combination of goodco + badco, the goodco must have grown even faster… You must believe VRX's growth rate is falling off a cliff to think a 15x multiple might be a good estimate of FV! I have spent the last few days reading all I could find about government intervention, which I still think is the biggest unknown here… And I have found very little indeed! Now it seems to me that government intervention in the whole pharmaceutical sector is a very low probability… The probability of the government specifically meddling in VRX’s business is even lower. Therefore, I am buying some back today. See Picasso? When I think things are predictable enough, we don’t differ much after all: you like a very attractive price… me too! ;) Cheers, Gio

Exposing The Information That Congress Will Find If It Subpoenas Valeant $VRX http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/3550016 From the article: This is what Pearson had to say about organic growth in Q2 2015 conference call: Therefore, it doesn’t seem he is removing the impacts of generics on organic growth, in fact he is giving organic growth guidance despite the genericization of some products. What about drugs that are discontinued? My idea is that Pearson would talk about them, exactly as he is talking about drugs that are subject to genericization. And during Q2 2015 conference call he hasn’t mentioned any drug that has been discontinued… Therefore, I don’t see how discontinued drugs could have affected organic growth for the first half of 2015. Cheers, Gio