giofranchi

+1 Gio

ItsAValueTrap, I have not understood you view on DSL... Could you please tell us how you see the strategic positioning of cable vs DSL? Thank you, Gio

oddballstocks, Fiber is not the matter here (I guess we all might agree on the fact fiber is superior to cable), the matter is "the laying down of a fiber infrastructure"... Even if you have a slightly better technology, how do you compete in business with people who don't have such a huge cost? Easy answer: you don't. Another thing would be if the government were to pay for the new infrastructure, of course! And that's the regulatory risk we have talked about. Is it going to happen? I think no one knows. Cheers, Gio

I still don’t understand: those who use Netflix need cable, or they don’t? ??? Gio

Well, of course I cannot say if Malone has figured this out or not… But I wouldn’t call him “old guard”… Look at Sirius XM, would you label that company of the old guard? Or look at the companies held by Liberty Ventures: I would not define them as old guard… If he still believes cable might generate lots of cash for some time, I think it is because he still sees a competitive advantage there, which is basically very low capex. Gio

What I think I have understood is that the barrier to a new technology is not the technology itself, but the huge amount of capex needed to build the infrastructure for that new technology. At least not until the old technology is still cheap and fast enough! After all Liberty Broadband could invest in any kind of broadband, right? If Malone considered wireless broadband the place to be right now, why would he invest in cable? Gio

Ok, from this very useful conversation I have come to consider the regulatory risk much more plausible than the technological risk... What about initiatives like ConnectHome? http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/15/8969809/google-white-house-obama-broadband Whenever I read the word "free", I get nervous! ;) Gio

Thank you all! Very helpful! :) Jay, could you explain what you mean by "cable cos could be so embedded into mobile"... Do cable cos deal with mobile? Please, be patient with my ignorance! ;) Cheers, Gio

Ok, thank you! This is very helpful and now I think I understand it better. :) One last question: why do you say cable cos will have no advantages over telcos, when the time finally comes to build a new infrastructure? After all they are the incumbents, aren’t they? It won’t be like building a new bridge… It will be more like building one where another bridge already exists… Those who own the already existing bridge should somehow be better positioned to build the new bridge than anyone else, shouldn’t they? Gio

Organic growth continues to be almost unbelievable! Cheers, Gio

http://ir.valeant.com/investor-relations/news-releases/news-release-details/2015/Valeant-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-Second-Quarter-2015-Financial-Results/default.aspx Gio

If you change technology, and therefore you have to build up a new infrastructure, that must be done anyway… Am I wrong? I understand it is a different technology, but I don’t understand why cable companies cannot simply adopt a new technology… In other words, if a “tube” is actually going to replace a “cable”, imo the cable companies which laid down that “cable” in the first place are the best positioned players to implement such a change. What am I missing here? Gio

Aren't they fibers made of glass, and put inside a cable? Gio

This might be a very dumb question, but I am not sure I understand the difference between cable and fiber… Isn’t fiber inside a cable? In other words, why couldn’t cable companies just change the material they put inside their cables to transmit data? Gio

Good! Thank you very much! :) Cheers, Gio

I understand of course this is a risk, which could make the cable business less predictable than I think it is right now. We will see. Anything more specific? Is there already a technology that could be faster and cheaper than cable? If not, I guess it takes time to find one, and to build the new infrastructure needed to replace cable. Maybe years, right? And who knows? Probably Malone & Company will be among the first ones to invest in such new infrastructure through one company of theirs… And I will always be able to follow him, shifting my investment from LBRDA to whichever other company they use to invest in a superior technology. ;) Cheers, Gio

Not sure if this is what you are looking for... Gio prospectus-final.pdf

I have just opened a 12% position in LBRDA. My thesis: 1) Malone & Company (Maffei, Rutledge, etc.) are superb operators: this I already knew. 2) I was wrong about the predictability of the cable business: it is not about the content, it is about the infrastructure needed to deliver the content instead. Whoever owns that infrastructure, owns a “toll bridge” kind of business. Which is among the most predictable of businesses! 3) There will be consolidation in the US cable industry. If 1) + 2) + 3) are true, I think this investment will turn out to be a very profitable one. If 1) + 2) are true, but 3) never materializes, I think this investment will turn out to be profitable, though a modestly profitable one. If only 1) is true, I might end up losing some money… Though the strong leadership of Malone & Company should be able to minimize the damage. Cheers, Gio

Activist principles at play: Ackman http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000397760&play=1 Gio

loganc and Liberty, In other words, it is not the content that matters, but the infrastructure used to deliver it to the final consumer. Whoever owns that infrastructure owns a “toll bridge” type of business, highly predictable indeed! Am I right? What about consolidation? Do you see any regulatory issue that could prevent consolidation from happening in the industry? Finally, how do you like LBRDA if compared to the other Malone’s companies? Thank you very much, Gio

I don’t understand it easily enough… As far as content is concerned, it seems to me that the cable industry is an intermediary between the content creators and the final consumers… Couldn’t content creators do without content distributors through the internet? Of course, they would still need a cable… But then the industry would shrink to “cable providers” instead of “content providers”… Big difference! Don’t you agree? With this I cannot argue! And that’s why I am saying I don’t think I understand the dynamics behind the cable industry easily enough… Gio

Well, but I am not looking for something which could “stand the test of time”… I am looking for something led by a great and still motivated entrepreneur, who is reliable and works both for himself and for all other shareholders, and who could go on doing what he does best for the next 10-15 years… UNDISTURBED. That’s all I am interested in. ;) Cheers, Gio

Very good post! :) How do you think the cable industry today compares to the pharma industry (VRX), the aerospace industry (TDG), or the software industry (CSU)? Don’t you think it lacks the predictability those other businesses enjoy instead? Thank you, Gio

If you truly think Watsa has gone “off the rails”, then you should sell your shares. Because obviously nothing else will be beneficial to your financial health. But of course you already know this. ;) Cheers, Gio

I have just bought more NHL this morning. I am slowly building a meaningful position. Still lots of room for averaging down. Cheers, Gio