giofranchi

I do not see why this should matter… Biglari is buying all those share with BH’s shareholders’ capital; therefore, those who remain BH’s shareholders after the tender has expired, provided Biglari is successful in repurchasing all the shares he wants to, will have their slice of the pie increased by 25%. Of course, if he were to retire those shares, he would lose voting power… Why should he do that? Gio

I don’t understand… Back in the same situation? Why? With a BVPS that could be 25% higher? ??? Gio

Well, I think something of this quality should trade around at least 20 x Adjusted EPS. Right now it is trading at 26x. They have increased revenues at a CAGR of 20.5% for many years and I think their market is large enough to go on increasing them at a similar annual rate for many more years into the future. Adjusted EPS should follow suit. If they compound Adjusted EPS at 20% and 10 years from now TDG is trading at 20x, my annual return would be 20 x 0.75 = 15% compounded annual. Cheers, Gio

I have just established an 8% position, which I will gradually increase over time, or aggressively increase should the stock price decline. I like the fact TDG is the most successful of the so-called “platform companies” not owned by Ackman yet. Therefore, no direct correlation to my PSH investment. Cheers, Gio

Mmm… I don’t think Biglari’s compensation and the licensing golden parachute might be judged together: Biglari undoubtedly wants to get paid for his work, and wants to have the means to personally buy more and more of BH… Until he has achieved that, I don’t see his compensation coming down significantly. On the other hand, the licensing golden parachute might clearly be thought of as an extravagant poison pill… But Biglari’s actions to cement his control over BH have never worried me much… Will they continue? I don’t think so… But should they continue, are they going to be cause for concern? Right now I would say not much… But I will examine them one by one as they come. As I have always said, deteriorating business results are what will certainly cause me to re-think my thesis. No doubt about that! ;) Gio

+1 And don’t forget shareholders of BH have fully participated in two rights offerings, handing their money to be invested by Biglari the best way he might find. Now, as a shareholder no one should complain he is buying back shares with shareholders money, while entrenching himself more and more in the process. I understand critics might not like it, but as shareholders we all must have known this was coming sooner or later. And we decided to give him lots of money through the rights offering nonetheless. Now certainly is no time for complain. awindenberger, have you finished your series of articles about BH’s annual meeting? I was expecting at least one more article! ;) Cheers, Gio

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3235266-valeant-pharmaceuticals-not-your-average-pharma-stock?auth_param=7i5hb:1an06fs:c579632ea972687b2d5cde20482b5b30&uprof=25 Gio

Ah!... I thought those that are good are also the ones who position themselves to ride favorable industry tailwinds! ;) Gio

Interesting! I'll take a serious look at PSG Group! ;) Cheers, Gio

Very good thread! :) Could you please also specify the name of the companies? Instead of their symbol only? Thank you, Gio

So, why aren't you a shareholder of CSU? Too expensive right now? Thank you, Gio

http://seekingalpha.com/news/2559146-new-indication-for-relistor-cleared-in-europe?uprof=25#email_link Gio

Thank you! :) Gio

May 2015 Performance Report Gio Performance-Report-May-2015-PSH.pdf

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3221146-ibs-now-an-actavis-vs-valeant-game?auth_param=7i5hb:1amgh7m:67befdd8e90a68da90380233c9ee1ce4&uprof=25 Gio

Hi Vinod, Imo those are the things anyone can plainly see and agree on. As I have already told you, I think FFH’s overall strategy might be a little less evident: as asset prices will probably deflate at one time during the next 3-5 years, FFH will be best positioned to purchase productive assets very cheaply. Better positioned than anyone else I know of, actually! That might be the beginning of a transformation into a much more diversified conglomerate of high quality businesses, which will more closely resemble what Berkshire is today. If successful, certainly FFH’s stock price doesn’t reflect such a scenario. And personally I don’t know of many businesses with higher opportunities of compounding capital over the next 5-10 years (if the scenario I have described comes to pass, the best case for FFH), nor with a lower risk of permanent loss of capital (if the scenario I have described never materializes, the worst case for FFH). But, please, let me know which businesses you are investing in! So that I might look at them, and better understand what you mean! If I like them, as I have always said, I might decide to sell some FFH to buy those businesses. ;) Cheers, Gio

Well, Biglari had already been very clear about the need of a special dividend… though he suggested a much larger one!... Especially because CBRL management cannot buy back stocks… unless they risk increasing Biglari’s ownership above the 20% threshold! ;) Cheers, Gio

Of course I can only speak for myself: imo that question is very much business related, and anything that's business related is also related to invetments. Thinking about business related topics might always be useful, even if those topics are a bit far from what you happen to be interested in at the moment. Cheers, Gio

That would be very effective indeed, and it is exactly what we do in Italy. Though, it takes time to create that kind of contacts… And November 2015 is just few months away… We’ll surely do that for the second edition of this MS, but for the first one we are already too late! Thank you! Gio

Both university professors (30%) and professionals (70%). 300 hours of lessons + 500 hours of internship: you are right, this should be added on the leaflet! Thank you! ;) Yes, of course we have thought about that, but unfortunately they are not exactly “cheap”… Cheers, Gio

Vinod was calculating the rate of book value growth. His estimate is 5-12%, with a base case of, call it, 7%. His base case calls for stock market returns of 5% (not unreasonable by any measure). His base case says Fairfax will grow at a greater rate than the market and is therefore "worth" at least book to "the market". What it is worth to frommi or Jurgis or vinod is an entirely different story. What something is worth to the market under reasonable assumptions under today's conditions is different than what something is worth to any one of us with an XX% hurdle. My takeaway from Vinod's thorough analysis is in order to own FFH today, you either must have higher compounding rate expectations (like Gio does, not trying to argue with you Gio, I just know you expect greater things from FFH than 5 or 7%) or pretty low return requirements. I have no strong opinions either way and have never owned FFH. This is exactly what I meant. Thanks for explaining it better than I could. Vinod As far as I am concerned, this goes well beyond my future expectations for FFH’s business results. It has lots to do with the business I am in, which is not buying and selling securities… Instead it is: 1) Generating cash; 2) Finding a business led by an owner/operator with a solid and long track record, a business that I understand and that is not subject to obsolescence; 3) Using the cash I generate to keep buying that business at fair/good prices; 4) Finding new ways to generate cash, should it become too small a fraction of my firm’s equity. Therefore, my perspective is not really “at which CAGR will FFH be able to compound BVPS in the future”, instead it is more like “which other business fits the description in 2) better than FFH, so that I could keep buying it instead of FFH with my cash”. As I have always said, show me a better alternative, and I will be very glad to take it into careful consideration! Because, irrespective of the CAGR I might think FFH could compound in the future, I am confident that, as long as I do sensible things (1, 2, 3, and 4), with the discipline to keep doing them for a long time, satisfactory outcomes should follow… with maybe some pleasant surprises along the way! ;) This being said, as I have already told Vinod, I think that simply saying “well, the indices have returned X for the past 30 years and FFH has returned Y… the indices are going to return X2 for the next 20 years, therefore FFH is going to return Y2” might be greatly misleading. Instead, to judge the future prospects for any business, you should think hard about what that business has been in the past, and about what that business could become in the future. And imo FFH is becoming a much better business than it has ever been. Cheers, Gio

Hi guys, In November 2015 we will inaugurate the first edition of our new Master “Leadership in glocal design”. As you can see on its leaflet in attachment, it adresses specifically engineers and/or architects living outside Italy, who are interested in making a formative experience working for Italian design firms. Germany is renowned for its engineering firms, England for its financial services firms, while Italy (hopefully) can still count on some of the best design firms in the world. And the 2015 Qs World University Ranking by Subjects puts the Politecnico of Milan at number 10 for Design. Not bad! Especially given its small financial resources compared to those of many other large universities worldwide. Now, though, our masters until now have always been offered basically to Italian students, therefore we have never truly made the effort to advertise them abroad… I know that many of you don’t believe in higher education, and judge it to be worse than useless… But the help I am asking for is strictly from a marketing point of view: what’s the best (and the cheapest! ;) ) way to advertise your product in foreign countries? TIA, any help would be greatly appreciated! :) Cheers, Gio Leadership_Glocal_Design.pdf

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/may/27/why-india-is-captured-by-carbon? Gio

Not easy… For what I know, they might even be able to compound at 15% annual… But, as soon as I express that view, people jump at me! ;) And 20 years is a very long time… You might try to assign a probability to each scenario, but don’t really expect it to be anything more than an educated guess! Gio

In such an environment imo the contribution from their equities + equity hedges portfolio will pale in comparison to the contribution from their bonds portfolio and their CPI linked contracts. I might be wrong, though... ;) Gio