giofranchi

Good letter by John Mauldin. If he is right, Fairfax is going to earn $billions! ;) Gio 141013_TFTF2.pdf

ALS is the only company on the list I had a large position, because it is the only one in your list with what I reckon to be both a good entrepreneur at the helm and a good business (royalties in some very diversified basic necessities of life). But I sold the largest part of my investment in ALS before the sell off. Why? Because I got concerned about what ItsAValueTrap once said: their PG side of the business has never discovered a profitable mine. Therefore, it seems to me that, at least as long as they have debt to pay down, it will be difficult to expand their portfolio of royalties. And I decided to wait and see. I also wanted to shift a lot of capital into Liberty Media because of the planned (and now announced) spin-off. That might have been not such a good idea, given the fact Liberty Media is down more than the general market during the last few days. Gio

He surely has made some mistakes… Anyway, who hasn’t? Despite those mistakes, he enjoys a great track record and has become a billionaire… I wish I knew how to make the same mistakes!! ;D And think what he could accomplish, if he has learnt his lessons and won’t repeat the same mistakes in the future! ;) Gio

What do you mean by "larger risks"? Larger positions? A more concentrated portfolio? An activist investor is practically forced to focus on very few positions. I don't know of any activist who is "widely diversified". Gio

Do you think they did what Ackman is doing? I am sure you don't. Therefore, why a post like that? Trying to be hilarious? ;) Gio

I don’t agree. And I would suggest to read [amazonsearch]Confidence Game[/amazonsearch]. Ackman is a true workaholic and I would never bet against him. Gio

--Warren Buffett praising the CEO of Shaw Industries --Shaw CEO Robert Shaw I know I will get on the train with Bill Ackman. He is a self-made billionaire and has the right track record. Maybe not just now, but sooner or later I surely will. Cheers, Gio

I remember Buffett saying that it is almost impossible to overpay for the truly exceptional CEO… That’s why I buy and almost never sell. I just keep buying when I get the chance to increase my investment with the odds overwhelmingly in my favor. Meanwhile I try to generate and save as much cash as I can. That’s practically all I do. And all I am comfortable doing… Based on BV or NAV I wouldn’t be able to choose when to invest in something like Fairfax, Liberty Media, Biglari Holdings, GreenlightRe, ThirdPointRe, etc., because, given their prospects for future growth, they all seem extremely cheap to me… Gio

I don't. Neither I need to: the beauty of partnering with the best entrepreneur out there! ;) Gio

One thing: if I am right about Liberty Media, it will never get to a $76 billion market capitalization. In this regard Malone differs much from Buffett. His favorite holding period is definitely not “forever”. He goes where he sees the most value. Develops all the potential for growth he sees. Then spins-off. Keeping what I call “the mother-vehicle” (Liberty Media) relatively small. Imo this allows him to always find new bargains, that move the needle significantly for Liberty Media shareholders, with relative ease. I cannot say if Softbank replicates this sort of business model, but a $76 billion market capitalization and a $120 billion NAV make me think it does not. Gio

Yes, you are right. Therefore, I indirectly own a bit of an unbelievable bargain! :) Gio

Then Softbank today is an unbelievable bargain! ;) Gio

Personally, I don’t know enough about Softbank, therefore I cannot say why its discount to NAV is so massive. What I know is that I always think about the business, and never compare something I think I know, like Liberty Media, with something I don’t know, like Softbank, on some kind of financial metrics, like their discounts to NAV. Without thinking hard about the business and understanding it well, the comparison of financial metrics doesn’t make much sense to me. Gio

Liberty Media is not Sirius. Though it might seem it is, because of the very large stake in Sirius and all the talk about a merger. But it surely is not. Liberty Media is an ever evolving entity that focuses on two or three businesses at a time, maximizes their earnings potential, and then moves on and shifts its attention onto something else. Liberty Media is how Malone keeps doing what he does best. It is not a matter of discount. Not at all. Anyone who waits for a larger discounts has not understood what Liberty Media is all about (imo). Three or four more years of increased profitability for Sirius (and Maffei evidently thinks it very likely) is all that matters for Liberty Media shareholders. Because in three or four years everything can change. I already have a very large position, but on Monday I will buy more. If Liberty Media keeps going down, it will most probably be because of some kind of market correction. Of course, I cannot predict that, but if it occurs, I will gladly go on buying. Gio

Thank you for posting! He seems to be very confident in both Sirius and Live Nation future prospects. ;) Gio

Spin-off and Rights Offering announced. :) Gio LMCA_News_2014_10_9_General_Releases.pdf

Exactly! :) Gio

+1! Cheers, Gio

--Prem Watsa Thank you! :) Gio

Congratulations! And my best wishes to all your family! :) Cheers, Gio

That is very ominous indeed. I have also heard that every time there was a crash it came in a year with 12 months. We have 12 months in the year now. Food for thought. It is good to be hilarious… It might be as good to make sure we will do fine both if a market crash comes and if it doesn’t… I am quite confident I will do fine in both scenarios… But I guess I am only an arrogant son of a… (sorry mom… I love you! ;D) Cheers, Gio

One bullish view (from Anatole Kaletsky), one bearish view (from Charles Gave)... though I hope the bull is right, I think the bear makes much more sense... Gio EVA+10.3.2014+NA.pdf

If so, I am positive I will be the last one to know… ;D ;D Though I hope that might not be the case, other members of the board surely are much better informed! Gio

Thank you! ;) Gio

Why is Malone selling? ??? Gio Form4.pdf