plato1976

By which metric do you think it is cheap?

Does anyone know if this mentioned "MicroStrategy’s 0.75% convertible bond" trades publicly? Where can I check this information Thanks!

I feel MSFT around or below potentially 2021's 25x PE and a long steady growth road ahead, which is decoupled from the geopolitical tension and almost immune from the anti-trust trouble, is particularly attractive in this low interest env. It's not even that expensive next year compared with sp500 average, but I feel it's way better than most other companies in sp500

Isn't TikTok a great threat if it will continue to be operational in the U.S. and most other regions?

not sure how many have thought about hedging the profits It's fair to say the market is at least fairly valued. Let's say the long term rate will be permanently stuck below 1% for 10y and if we add 3% risk premium we get 25pe as reasonable for the market. Good bluechips with strong moat can have some premium and this put a cap at 30pe for bluechip with a little bit growth prospect (sth like Apple). Apple is already above 30 now. And this applies to most other new era bluechips It's also fair to say that without the liquidity the market would have been gone that high. Both liquidity and long term rate are close to the extreme they can get (they can certainly go more crazy - rate can go to 0 or slightly negative, but I see that as the last leg). I am reluctant to sell my positions for two reasons: 1) most have good moat and in the long run they will still compound 2) most importantly, I don't want to incur the tax So this leaves me with the only option. To begin to hedge. But I cannot find a good hedge here. Most leap puts are very expensive now (just check tesla puts...) I don't want to short anything in a straight way. I am actually thinking, if the main reason of this bull market is liquidity, is there a cheap way to hedge against the eventual liquidity ramping off? (I don't want to bet against the long term rate, imo the long term rate may just be stuck at a low level for a long time)

why the insurance business is very well positioned? low interest rate in general impairs the insurance business in overall

agree, so maybe citibank is a better investment at similar valuation this appears to be where it addresses the risk to the banks from CLOs (bold emphasis added): Defenders of CLOs say they aren’t, in fact, a gamble—on the contrary, they are as sure a thing as you can hope for. That’s because the banks mostly own the least risky, top layer of CLOs. Since the mid-1990s, the highest annual default rate on leveraged loans was about 10 percent, during the previous financial crisis. If 10 percent of a CLO’s loans default, the bottom layers will suffer, but if you own the top layer, you might not even notice. Three times as many loans could default and you’d still be protected, because the lower layers would bear the loss. The securities are structured such that investors with a high tolerance for risk, like hedge funds and private-equity firms, buy the bottom layers hoping to win the lottery. The big banks settle for smaller returns and the security of the top layer. The article calls into question statements from Mnuchin-Powell that the risk from CLOs is outside the banking system. That view is largely consistent with the article's statement that the banks own the top layer of CLOs. The blog post linked below is an excellent response to Partnoy's article. It's a shame that The Atlantic published this. It is exceptionally hyperbolic and not even in the ball park of accurate in terms of systemic risk. https://nathantankus.substack.com/p/is-there-really-a-looming-bank-collapse This appears to be the rebuttal's main point: Losses from this crisis may lead to “serious deficiencies in capital”, but if they do it will not be because of fancy structured products but the failure of good old-fashioned loans because of a good old-fashioned depression. In fact, it’s likely that collateralized loan obligations made up of the top portion of a portfolio of loans will do the best of any of the Bank’s corporate loans. Yes, but I think you have to contextualize. He is saying that if there is a depression bank capital could be in trouble. No problems a recession. 7.5% decline in GDP for full year 2020 would be awful, but is not a depression...banks have a lot of capital. Going to WFC. Wells is problematic because it has no ability to grow or even keep revenue flat in the current environment given the asset cap, has high expenses due to the regulatory burden it has, and then will be losing customers and eventually talent as no one is going to want to bank with a firm that (due to the asset cap) keeps telling clients all of the things they can't do for them. WFC will survive, but it's not in an enviable position and I'd run from the common.

what will espn be worth if it's separated from disney?

but why it's less severe at PM b/c it's more low end ?

as long as they can continue to raise the price to compensate the volumn drop the stock has value at this level but I don't know how to convince myself that they can continue to do it I bought MO in mid-2017 & was attracted to the asset light business, high ROE's & captive (sort of) customer base. I had owned UST before they were acquired by Altria (I wish MO would have never bought them). I expected MO to continue returning cash through dividends & buybacks & envisioned someone eventually buying the remains of this melting ice cube. Then along came Howard Willard :-X (Retired after a bout with COVID, my unwashed butt crack). I probably should have picked up some PM but have sworn off tobacco as a place to put any new cash. I hope to break even on this position in another decade ??? and I know, opportunity cost, but I just can't bring myself to lock in the loss. The main reason I bought Altria is that I'm an idiot.

what's berkshire insurance's exposure to the pandemic? I think geico is immune to it, but re-insurance can take a hit? but how?

I can see more and more residential and companies are shifting to install solar panels to supply electricity for themselves. Many of them gain "energy independence" Won't this impact traditional utility business ? Not sure if there is a quantification of this impact

The heated up discussion about WFC and the increased number of ppl buying WFC here scared sh*t out of me

my user experience with merrill edge mobile app is beyond terrible It's sooooooooooooooooo slow I think boa bank app is ok Well said. I guess I don’t understand the competitive advantage. If you have your average Joe the app for all the major banks, I doubt they would really have any significant preference. Sure there will be some who care about all the functionality etc. But hell, even my shitty little local credit union has an app which lets me mobile deposits check, check my balances, transfer funds, blah blah blah. Sure, it’s not pretty, but who cares. As long as my balance shows up accurately I really couldn’t care less about the app. WFC is a massive bank, I find it hard to believe they couldn’t pay some major firm to build out a tech suit in a year. But all you here is how far they are behind. Far behind in what? Is there some teleportation peripheral device that will spawn stacks of cash in my house that JPM is offering that WFC?

this does look like a value trap to me at this point (together with most other big banks)