Grenville

Thanks. There is a link to Moynihan's deposition that they are referring to as well in the article.

Good, short article in Wired about Amazon Web Services and its origins. Also a little about its competitors in Google and Microsoft. The Cult of Amazon: How a Bookseller Invented the Future of Computing http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2012/11/amazon/ Also this week is Amazon's Web Service Conference where you can sign up for the live feeds from the head of AWS, the CTO and Bezos.

Amazon is raising 3bln in debt for the first time in over 10 years. 0.65% Notes due 2015 - 750mln 1.20% Notes due 2017 - 1bln 2.50% Notes due 2022 - 1.25bln http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000119312512480847/d439592dfwp.htm

Nice interview! Thank you for posting. It's hard to beat Charlie Rose when it comes to an interviewer. Interesting things they touched on in the interview: + Amazon web services growing faster than they even expected + Bezos talks about mental models when people think about Twitter and Facebook coexisting compared to one winning. Also if there are more historical interviews with Bezos from 1999 to 2010 with Rose. I haven't watched the others, didn't realize there were more past 2009. http://www.charlierose.com/search/search/12656?text=bezos

The downgrade looks like it is shaking loose more volume on the 2034 5.7% notes. 4mln today near par.

Riverstone is FFH Riverstone isn't FFH. I thought it was the runoff group, but it's another energy investment company: http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1247497/000101143812000336/form_13f-riverholdings.txt http://www.riverstonellc.com

Just answered my own question. From the filing above: "Under the Rights Plan, the rights generally will become exercisable only if a person or group acquires beneficial ownership of 10 percent (or 15 percent in the case of certain institutional investors who report their holdings on Schedule 13G, as described in the Rights Plan) or more of SandRidge's common stock. " Threshold is 15% for the 13G filer.

Sandridge puts in place a poison pill. http://investors.sandridgeenergy.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196066&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1760383&highlight= I wonder how this impacts Fairfax's 10.5% stake reported recently. The right's plan is as of November 29. Does Fairfax's stake trigger the right's?

Finally starting to read the letters from the start of 1978. Thank you for posting the compilation! Does any one have the 10K's pre 1994? Also I found the commentary helpful here regarding the takeover of Talcott National: http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/leucadia-national-corporation-history/

Amazon removed the 7.99/month option on prime, looks like it was a "test". http://www.slashgear.com/amazon-axes-monthly-prime-option-19257510/

With the stock trading at $9.12 and the A warrant at $3.80, I calculate a break-even stock price of about $23. So if the stock trades above $23 in the next six years, the warrants will have better returns than the stock. If the current IV is close to $20, it is not a stretch to think that the IV in six years could be around $30 and that the stock could trade somewhere near IV in the next six years. Nevertheless, I prefer the stock to the warrants. If the stock goes to $23 in the next six years, the annual return will be at least 17%. I will sleep better sticking with a comparatively safe 17%, so I'll forgo the potentially higher return from the warrants. I liked the common too until Moynihan made it clear the majority of LAS cost wind down would occur in 2013. With that, the probability of share price appreciation earlier that 2019 increases, and makes the warrants much more attractive. For this reason, I added warrants about a month ago. I hold these in a US taxable account. Question for tax experts: Doesn't the warrants' anti-dilution feature basically convert dividend income into capital gains? And wouldn't the warrants be incrementally preferable if Washington moves on setting dividend tax rates significantly higher than capital gains tax rates? I'd read the prospectus, it has a section on the tax implications. I would be careful in a taxable account with the warrants because an adjustment for strike or share number might be classified as a taxable event even though you're not exercising them.

Nice article on Bezos in Fortune's article naming him Business Person of the Year Amazon's Jeff Bezos: The ultimate disrupter http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/16/jeff-bezos-amazon/ items from the article: + Meetings where the first 30 minutes are in silence reading a 6 page memo + Cash compensation is low for employees, employees buy their own lunches

I assumed Sam was on the board. I hope Fairfax gets him on the board. He answers plenty of the gas/oil questions at the shareholder dinner if I remember correctly.

10.5%! should make things interesting with TPG/AXON! Some of that 8bln in cash is going to work.

I don't think he owns any of the tranche that BAC made the offer on. Wonder why they chose that tranche... ;) He owns 11.58mln principal in the Fairholme Fund http://www.fairholmefunds.com/sites/default/files/352975_051.pdf

Can he back out of the lock-up on the consent solicitation?

Yeah, I'm sure there are some other wrinkles, but that makes sense. One data point is that Berkowitz has given his consent with the lock up and we know he owns the common.

I don't know MBIA's financials that well, but I don't think they have the cash to call the bonds. They could raise more capital and go that route but in order to call the bonds they need to pay a premium to par to call them early. from the 2004 prospectus:

It prevents a liquidity event on the hold co from bond holders through cross default on mbia corp. National doesn't have the liquidity issue. The article below probably does a better job of explaining it. http://dealbreaker.com/2012/11/you-fight-with-bank-of-america-over-bad-mortgages-bank-of-america-fights-back/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dealbreaker+%28Dealbreaker%29 Link from Plan Common share holders don't want a liquidity event forcing MBIA's hands in the settlement talks with BAC. They want the put back claim receivables paid, because a decent amount of upside comes from that.

Based on my understanding of JEF, it's run much more conservatively than most investment banks. JEF has never had the luxury of low cost deposits so they have had to be mindful of their balance sheet and funding sources. One example of the quality of their funding and model was how they were able to survive a real world stress test when rumors were thrown around last November in the midst of the MF Global bankruptcy. Also JEF has less prop trading as a driver of its revenue. Most of the business is client flow based. Also, the derivative book is simpler and a good deal of it is exchange traded. There are more details in the JEF investment thread as well.

Maybe BAC and MBIA should ask Bruce Berkowitz to mediate. He's got interest on both sides of the aisle. He did the call with Moynihan a while ago and it looks like he's part of the MBIA's lock up on the notes submitted in the consent solicitation so far.

I posted this in the other thread.

Aggressive yes, but remember MBIA was the less sanguine one who raised debt in on sub and then upstreamed the capital to the hold co and led Third Avenue to initiate their lawsuit.

Interesting stuff. It looks like MBIA has gotten a lockup on the consent solicitation for 25.4% of the 1990 Indenture and 3.5% of the notes outstanding under the 2004 Indenture. The 2004 Indenture are the notes BAC is trying to buy up. There is a notional amount of 350mln of them. Also I think the lock up matches what Bruce Berkowitz has at Fairholme. In his annual report for 2011 he has about 11.58mln of the 2034 5.7% (2004 Notes). I guess it will come down to who owns the notes and who owns the common. If you own both you probably have more upside with MBIA and if you just own the notes then you'd rather give up to BAC. I put this together real quick after a quick scan so I would appreciate any other thoughts or corrections. I want this thing between BAC and MBIA settled.

Bank of America Announces Commencement of Cash Tender Offer for MBIA Notes http://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/press-release/corporate-and-financial-news/bank-america-announces-commencement-cash-tender-offer-mbi Getting interesting.