LongHaul

What is really fascinating is how much solar and wind have declined in cost in the last 10 years, etc. I find it really amazing actually - and if one projects out 5-15 years - solar and wind will likely be much cheaper than even natural gas. Essentially the solution to the carbon/fossil fuel problem was found by the ingenuity of humans. Betting against extreme innovators is not a good bet. This will obviously take decades but combine cheap electricity with cheap battery storage and electric transport and carbon emissions should really come down substantially. Some info I liked: Pg 8 (vii) Utility Scale Solar Cost https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77324.pdf Ramez Naam https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl0VtxAbt40 Figure 2: Global LCOE benchmarks – PV, wind and batteries https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/wind-power/bnef-says-solar-and-wind-are-now-cheapest-sources-of-new-energy-generation-for-majority-of-planet/#gref

If someone cheats on their spouse then they are like a cracked vase and are good for the Dunghill! (I credit Epictetus)

One can search with google drive which is great

Beerbaron - read the Newsweek article Thrifty3000 posted. After reading this I think the odds that the Covid-19 virus came from the Wuhan Lab are higher than I previously thought. I would rate the article and A++ and the work of Drastic and A++. It is really amazing. What are the odds that Covid-19 comes out of Wuhan? - a city that only has ~1% of China's population and also holds the National Institute of Virology. Much more information will come out in the next few months.

I think it is a great idea or at least could be a good experiment. Incentives matter!

If you self insure you don't pay any insurance but then pay for any losses yourself. The story RKABANG posted is what can happen - but it is a low probability event, especially if you are careful. Insurance companies make money over the long run, even with all their underwriting expenses, fraud, losses, etc. Actually if you had invested the $15k you would probably have significantly more - remember that is your float. The other thing people often don't think about is the credit risk and unwillingness to pay risk. If a big hurricane hits Miami will you insurance company go broke? Sometimes they just don't want to pay either and you have to sue them. It depends on the factors of your personal situation but best not to make the decision based on fear and other emotions.

Buffett may be on the other side of you (indirectly) if these insurers are buying expensive reinsurance from Berkshire. You might want to consider self insuring (or maximizing your deductible). If you are careful, the chance of having a fire or water problem is very low. 1. Even in a total loss the land will have value even if you home burns to the ground. 2. Insurance is generally transferring risk for a price. If the price is too high (and you are at most an average risk) then it is a long term bad deal. You might get back 50 cents on the dollar in the long run. Here are some old notes FYI. Residential Fires (Home Insurance related) http://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/res_bldg_fire_estimates.pdf 374k home fires in 2012 ~32bps if 115m homes. 1/300 per year (33 bps). $19k average loss I would also recommend the below washing machine hose. The typical ones are low quality and more likely to spring a bad leak. Whirlpool 8212487RP 5-Feet Nylon Braid Washer Fill Hose, 2-Pack

Good Point Jurgis.

Thanks Cigarbutt. Good point about the self selection, I am not really sure. I have found that I seem to forget the Dale Carnegie stuff in 1-2 months but I think the KEY to the Feeling Good method is to have a journal, go thru the checklist of cognitive distortions and then put a more rational response to them in writing. Next time anyone feels like crap - TRY IT - and prove to yourself if it helps you or not. Study on Feeling Good Bibliotherapy "All six papers reported a statistically significant improvement in outcome measures for depression. The summary estimate indicates a large improvement over 4 weeks for those given the self-help book " See figure 2. This is an unusually effective book for treating depression. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1463163/#b26 I really enjoyed David Burns talk.

Feeling Good book by David Burns - 1999 edition (The book to minimize your self inflicted misery) I thought this was a truly outstanding book. Even though the book is primarily to help people with Depression (I wasn’t depressed) I found it super helpful and enlightening. It provides very specific and simple actionable tools to recognize our own thought distortions and the irrationality in them. I was very humbled reading this book because I have repeatedly made all the Cognitive Distortions on the list! But I was immediately able to recognize many of the distortions and correct them which is really, really powerful. It has definitely helped me eliminate some unnecessary misery from my life and I would recommend this book heartily to everyone. Here are my book notes, much of it copied directly from the book. Errors in the notes are my own. The notes are really the tip of the iceberg. I hope this helps you and your loved ones! The first principle of cognitive therapy is that all your moods are created by your thoughts. You feel the way you do right now because of the thoughts you are thinking at this moment. Your thoughts actually create your emotions. “Nearly every depressed person seems convinced beyond all rhyme or reason that he or she is the special one who really is beyond hope. This delusion reflects the kind of mental processing that is at the very core of your illness!” >>The 10 forms of cognitive distortions cause many, if not all of your depressed states. Definitions of Cognitive Distortions: ALL-OR-NOTHING-THINKING: You see things in black and white categories. If your performance falls short of perfect, you see yourself as a total failure. OVERGENERALIZATION: You see a single negative event as a never-ending pattern of defeat. MENTAL FILTER: You pick out a single negative detail and dwell on it exclusively so that your vision of all reality becomes darkened, like the drop of ink that colors the entire beaker of water. DISQUALIFYING THE POSITIVE: You reject positive experiences by insisting they “don’t count” for some reason or other. In this way you can maintain a negative belief that is contradicted by your everyday experiences. JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS: You make a negative interpretation even though there are no definitive facts that convincingly support your conclusion. Mind Reading: You arbitrarily conclude that someone is reacting negatively to you, and you don’t bother to check this out. The Fortune Teller Error: You anticipate that things will turn out badly, and you feel convinced that your prediction is an already-established fact. MAGNIFICATION OR MINIMIZATION: You exaggerate the importance of things (such as your goof-up or someone else’s achievement), or you inappropriately shrink things until they appear tiny. EMOTIONAL REASONING: You assume that your negative emotions reflect the way things really are: “I feel it, therefore it must be true.” SHOULD STATEMENTS: You try to motivate yourself with “shoulds” and “shouldn’ts”, as if you had to be whipped and punished before you could be expected to do anything. The emotional consequence is guilt. When you direct should statements toward others, you feel anger, frustration, and resentment. LABELING AND MISLABELING: This is an extreme form of overgeneralization. Instead of describing your error, you attach a negative label to yourself: “I’m a loser.” When someone else’s behavior rubs you the wrong way, you attach a negative label to him: “He’s a goddamn louse.” Mislabeling involves describing an event with language that is highly colored and emotionally loaded. PERSONALIZATION: You see yourself as the cause of some negative external event which in fact you were not primarily responsible for. >>>Triple Column Method - to destroy bad cognitive distortions and change your perspective. Automatic Thought Cognitive Distortion Rational Response (Self Criticism) (Self Defense) ================================================================= Example: 1. I never do anything Overgeneralization Nonsense! I do a lot of things right right. Note: “It is crucial to write down your automatic thoughts and rational responses; do not try to do the exercises in your head.” >>>>>>>> A mindset that contributes to the fear of defeat is when one evaluates performance exclusively on the outcome. “Let me explain with a personal example. As a psychotherapist I can control only what I say and how I interact with each patient. I cannot control how any particular patient will respond to my efforts during a given therapy session. What I say and how I interact is the process; how each individual reacts is the product. On any given day, several patients will report that they have benefited greatly from that day’s session, while a couple of others will tell me that their session was not particularly helpful. If I evaluated my work exclusively on the outcome or product, I would experience a sense of exhilaration whenever a patient did well, and feel defeated and defective whenever a patient reacted negatively. This would make my emotional life a roller coaster. If I admit to myself that all I can control is the input I provide in the therapeutic process, I can pride myself on good consistent work regardless of the outcome of any particular session.” >>>>>TICS or Task Interfering Cognitions (TICS) - often can be eliminated with Task Oriented Cognitions (TOCS).. >>>>>Criticism: If people criticize you they will either be right or wrong. If the comments are wrong, there is really nothing for you to be upset about. Why should you be disturbed if someone else makes the mistake of criticizing you in an unjust manner? That is the other guy’s error - not yours. And if the criticism is accurate there is still no reason to be overwhelmed as we are not expected to be perfect. Just acknowledge the error and take steps to correct it. If a person attacks you with vague insulting labels, ask him to be more specific about exactly what it is about you the person dislikes. If a critic is in error that does not make him stupid, worthless or inferior. I hope you’ll allow for the possibility that you or I will make errors at times. >>>>>Anger. Stop creating your anger. Anger like all cognitions is created by your cognitions. Your feelings about events are still created by your interpretations you place on them. “The consequences of an impulsive outburst will frequently defeat you in the long run. Even if you are being genuinely wronged, it may not be to your advantage to feel angry about it. The pain and suffering you inflict on yourself by feeling outraged may far exceed the impact on the original insult. “ Anger and labeling - cause you to see a person in a totally negative way. Every person is a mix of positive, neutral and negative attributes. >>>>>>Ultimately only your own negative, distorted thoughts can take away your self-respect. There is one and only one person in this world who has the power to threaten your self-esteem - and that is you. >>>>>>“If you are willing to let go of the unrealistic notion that your concepts of truth, justice, and fairness are shared by everyone, much of your resentment and frustration will vanish.” Frustration results from unmet expectations. Examples: If I want something I deserve it - love, happiness, etc. Other people should measure up to my standards I should be able to solve any problem quickly and easily. People should think and act the way I do. If I am nice to someone they should reciprocate. >>>>>>>Defeating Guilt Should statements can cause a lot of misery Instead of saying, “I should be able to make my wife happy” substitute, “It would be nice if I could make my wife happy now because she seems upset.” “You can either decide to accept yourself as an imperfect human being with limited knowledge and realize that you will at times make mistakes, or you can hate yourself for it.” One of the commonest distortions that leads to guilt is personalization - the misguided notion you are responsible for other people’s feelings and actions. >>>>>>Prevention and Personal Growth Utterly self defeating silent assumptions: If someone criticizes me, I feel miserable because this automatically means there is something wrong with me. To be a truly fulfilled human being I must be loved. My worth as a human is proportional to what I have achieved If I don’t perform or feel or act perfectly, I have failed Not good to have a low frustration tolerance. “The key to emotional enlightenment is the knowledge that only your thoughts can affect your moods. “ You do not need that external approval, love or attention in order to survive or to experience maximal levels of happiness. Being alone is neither good or bad, but rather how one thinks regarding that or any other condition of being. Treat yourself like you would a beloved friend and not be vicious and harsh on yourself. >>>>>Perfectionism (Purrfektionizm) Applies to expecting people to be perfect when no one is. Asserting your right to make mistakes will paradoxically make you a better human being. When Dr. Burns had to deal with a really nasty patient. His colleague told him he was “unusually fortunate” because Hank was giving him a golden opportunity to learn to cope with criticism and anger effectively. I skipped the Chemistry of Mood sections. End of Book Summary If anyone wants one on one help to delve more deeply, I heartily recommend Jason Sudol who is trained in Dr. Burn's methods. Coincidentally, he has a wall street background. https://cbtcoachingservices.com/

Super funny.

Ozone on track to heal completely in our lifetime, UN environment agency declares on World Day. https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/09/1046452

I thought the response from Robinhood was completely ludicrous and distracted and from any real issues that were brought up - for instance Payment for Order Flow and how Robinhood is deceptive about charging its customers through PFOF. The response was worth reading carefully as it reminds me of other companies that were essentially lying and turned out to engage in serious financial shenanigans. I think that Press release tells everyone a ton about the of the culture of Robinhood. BTW - I saw on Reddit how someone posted that Fidelity has gained 8-10 million accounts from Robinhood recently. Unconfirmed though.

Thanks Cigarbutt!