GrizzlyRock

If any folks have looked at TFS Corp in Australia please DM me.

If starting fresh, I would do the following: - Go back t the IPO presentations and model out each of the first 10 streams so you understand contract mechanics - Spend time with the materials and CFO to understand downside protection on a stream by stream basis. - Also work to understand why Input's flexible financing is so powerful for a farmer - Assess mgmt quality - THEN try to model the biz holistically going forward Hope this helps

Buying opportunity of the year. Wish I could say more publicaly

While not my comment, the answer to why "if they can't increase EBITDA given their leverage it could end up badly" is: Significant Financial Leverage * Problematic Operating Leverage = Troublesome Total Leverage

My read of the CapEx vs debt question is as follows: - Net funded debt is likely to tick down incrementally due to the growth CapEx. - However, Total Net Leverage ought to be ticking down more as the growth CapEx begins to prove out in the EBITDA in late 2015 and into 2016 - the growth CapEx figure of "$45 to $55 million" as stated in the press release is likely overstated as it pertains to cash out the door in 2015. Why? As discussed more on the CC than in the PR, a lot of the growth is coming from JVs (i.e. pain mgmt biz) in oncology and intervention. As the minority partners (read: local Dr) would prefer not to infuse cash into the JV, its likely that AIQ funds much of the growth CapEx with capital leases...

Pure speculation on my part. Oaktree needs an exit by sale. For the bankers to sell the biz at a reasonable multiple (read: anywhere near RadNet), they need to be able to speak to business growth. Given the dynamics of imaging and oncology, the pain mgmt biz could reasonably be assumed to be the "growth" part of the story...

2 thoughts on the Pain Center acquisition: 1) Pretty weird no 8k filed regarding the acquisition. Just another quirk which speaks to the valuation gap btw price & FV. 2) Would be interesting to know (not that we will ex ante) if this was the "hockey stick growth chart for the CIM" for the Oaktree sale or if they think a pain intervention roll-up nationally makes sense... My guess is the former.

Thanks for your constructive comments Packer

Fair point. I'm digging at why Alliance didn't trade for the aforementioned multiples in the private market? To me the differential between the RadNet valuation and Alliance is striking yet perhaps RadNet is just overvalued? PS: I'm really looking for dis-confirming evidence on potentials problems with the idea Alliance's FCF models screams WAY cheap...

Packer - thanks for your comments. Might you provide a link to the specific presentation?

This is interesting. Care to expand on this? The "syndicate" of Oaktree, MTS and GE own 52% of the stock and control the board, capital allocation, and eventual sale (if any). Thus the probability IMHO is this goes fully to a strategic or PE buyer as that is the only way Oaktree can monetize. With that in mind, sell side doesn't care as biz won't be public indefinitely and (more important) won't be churning a ton of inv. banking fees (other than the potential sale) Plus the last two big competitors went BK and the fact this biz hasn't yet sold to PE tells us a lot...

Hello again fellow Corner of BRKs! As mostly a "lurker" on the board, please allow me to a few thoughts and ask a question as we've done a fair bit of work on Alliance recently: - Yes, AIQ is poised to grow next year with images volume overwhelming expected decrease in revenue per image. WRT the SRS / LINAC biz, volumes are strong mostly from new contract wins (MUSC, California, etc). reimbursement changes are a modest negative yet the Company claims their specific code price changes are benign. - Strong FCF, strong mgmt, clearly statistically inexpensive (assuming AIQ isn't a value trap) - Mostly ignored by institutional investors due to the control groups led by Oaktree (explains discount in valuation metrics to RadNet) - My main question on Alliance is their reason for existence. Most hospitals and radiologists we spoke with indicate imaging and oncology as profit centers. With lease financing abundant, why are hospitals outsourcing to Alliance? What is the incentive? Note: we haven't yet spoken with AIQ customers. Has anyone done so?

http://cdn1.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Zillow-Trulia-final.pdf

Regarding this morning's letter my question is: what is Lawsky getting at with respect to Ocwen? Is it the fact that Erby was involved in the decision making process? Is he trying to complain to Ocwen's board that Erby is favoring other companies? Where is Lawsky going with this line of questioning other than to impugn Erby?

Anyone do work here? remains highly intriguing