Spekulatius

ENB is concentrating on long haul NG and crude pipes as well as utility ops. Basically, they are getting rid of assets with volatile cash flow or where they are sub scale. I think the proceeds from this sale basically pay for the remainder of line 3 capex. I like the move, and would like it even more, if I knew they got a decent price for their sale. One thing is clear- the short thesis that ENB is leveraged too high , leading to rating downgrades is quickly becoming unhinged.

I agree with this comment. We don't buy prescription meds pretty much and so we haven't been to Walgreens/CVS in ages. There's no point going there unless you need drugs. Well, sometimes they have a bigger selection of non-prescription meds ( anti-fever/anti-histamine ) than grocery supermarket. But that's pretty much it. There are probably people who go to Walgreens/CVS for non-pharma, but I don't know if front store is gonna continue to be a margin-positive business. If AMZN can do next day delivery for Amazon Prime Users for prescription drugs, these guys are toast.

AirBnB - when I travel on business, that not really and option and when I travel with my kid, I need all the anonymity I can get 8). Do people use AirBnB when traveling with kids?

I think it'll be bullish for GM, F, and FCAU, since US auto companies get the worst tariff deals out of the major world economies. Therefore, if there was an agreement to equalize tariffs, they'd benefit the most. I'm not saying it'd be super bullish, but it should make their products more affordable globally, so it would help. I also think auto stocks have been hit because of trade war fears, with that sector specifically being a major battleground (just look at their recent charts all trading down in unison). If those fears are resolved, that'd be a pretty big positive. Looks like there might be some movement on that front at the moment (https://www.ft.com/content/87bf0aa0-7ed2-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475). Then yeah, Marelli would definitely be an additional catalyst. Those are generally my thoughts on current sentiment issues. Time will tell if they're accurate. This is incorrect, The US car industry makes ther money with trucks and there are high tariffs on trucks. Besides that, tariffs or not, the US cars (or trucks) won’t take much market shares in Europe anyways, I expect Ford and especially GM to get a major spanking in China due to the trade war, as the Chinese will retaliate against US companies in ways other than tariffs, and most of the business in China is conducted via GM Chinese ventures and you can guess who comes up ahead if there is a dispute. They have done this ahead with the Japanese and the Koreans. in addition, the tariffs, supply chain disruptions and the steel cost increases will also hurt their bottom line. I think for those reasons , GM is a sell right now.

OK, I'm gonna be idiosyncratic again, but I never stayed at AirBnB and likely won't unless there's no other choice. I use Uber and Lyft all the time, but staying night at someone's house for me is really way more awkward than staying at a hotel. I've done BnBs in Scotland some time ago just because there were no hotels. It was OK, but I'd still choose hotel anytime. And I'd never never send AirBnB my passport/IDs/etc as they require right now. This is totally screwed up. No hotels require it, but somehow AirBnB gets away with it. Good luck/have fun when all this gets hacked from their servers. I guess maybe I'm not the target market for AirBnB. 8) I agree Airbnb is a different market segment than Hotel or even BnB and the one is unlikely to replace the other.

I don’t think this is a good way of looking at it. The MAR brand has value and allows for a better online presence and a somewhat standardized experience that BKNG can’t provide.

The problem is that the auditors are payed by the company they audit. It creates a high hurdle to discover and report fraud by a company that issues your paycheck essentially. The more natural bias is to “work with them”.

I thought in FDX is a reasonable idea. Good company at a reasonable price. I have owned UPS in the past, but sold the position to very trade war and teamster concerns but now I reconsider, I think FDX is a better choice and I believe the ROA for FDX and UPS will converge over time.p, which benefits FDX.

I hear you, but how does the NWS stay intact if the conservatorship ends? Mnuchin has been very vocal about ending the conservatorship on his watch, as has Watt, and the White House (if we're to believe the Mulvaney report). Yes, it is possible that all of them are lying or change their minds. Edit: I didn't word that carefully enough. Watt hasn't said he wants conservatorship ended on his watch, but he has said it can't last forever. It’s simple, the conservatorship won’t end. Mnuchin is just a pawn, he does what he is told, or gets fired, which is something the pres is very good at. The Pres has many other fish to fry. The best chance for investors to get whole is a court decision that forecasters the government hand to do something. Otherwise, it is in the best interest , to keep things exactly how they are. Also what’s $100B, if you are President? Money is fungible, it doesnt matter where it is coming from. If they “find” $100B, it still doesn’t mean they can find it the way they see fit.

Industrievärden looks good to me -~20% discount to NAV and beats the index over the long run.

I don’t think that any hotel chain will be insulated when there is a downturn in travel. MAR is indeed putting up great numbers right now, but they are also accumulating a fair amount of debt and since they are asset light, there aren’t a whole lot of assets to pawn, if they get overleveraged in a downturn. It might hit be correct that it’s hard for a hotel to escape a franchise agreement, but in a real downturn, bankruptcy of hotel operators aren’t unheard of either. It‘s too risky for me and at current prices, there is no margin of safety, IMO.

I do t think there will not be a $35k Model 3 ever - they can’t afford to produce a car that inexpensive.

I rarely watch CNBC ( or TV for that matter), but I think you vastly overestimate the impact the media have on economic decisions. Do you really think that E&P or big oil make their decisions based on what is running at CNBC?

i don’t think that. CNBC qualifies as „anti oil“ media, but I do agree with you that Elon has a way of achieving his goals that defies the initial purpose. It is very telling that he claims, that his makeshift assembly line in tent is lower cost than his „alien dreadnought“ assembly line in the main factory.

I agree with most longs here that the risk that the GSE are dismantled is very low. The reason, imo is that the GSE’s have been providing liquidity to the mortgage market for a long time, the system work and messing it up and hurting the housing market is not worth taking. I believe the risk for investors is that the politicians are incentivized to keep thing exactly how they are right now. The NWS is very profitable for the government, so I would not expect it to give it up without an adverse ruling that absolutely forces them to do so.

There were two asset managers in Australia that went belly up in 2008 - Allco and Babock & Brown. I think what did them in was that their sponsored vehicles got into trouble and they had significant leverage on the holding level (which held stakes in the units as well). This basically caused a margin call when the units value depreciated to the point where the value wasn’t coveraging the debt any more. Allco‘s and B&B business model was almost identical to BAM, but BAM survived, while those entities did not. Studying what did B&B and Allco in nevertheless should be useful to find out what happens when credit market seize and the equity markets go down (which are typically related events).

This tool is very commonly used in dictatorships. Just read Orwell. Those who grew up behind the Iron curtain know this very well.

The risk is implicit- they may have to support their dependent vehicles.

33% - that’s a lot of money to pay in a good year. Probably just better to stick with index funds. or just by BRK.B instead. The old man works for chump change.

Owning ENB has been a bit trying recently, but I never lost sleep owning it and it is one of my largest positions for me.

Yes, but it wasn’t illegal by German laws at this time, which the doofus hedge funds shorting VW didn’t realize, because they didn’t do their home work apparently. However, TSLA is an entirely different situation, the company is loosing a lot of money, which means that they will have to issue more equity and float isn’t exactly narrow either.

I think BHGE is some sold, because the profitability very likely will be subpar over the cycle. They kind of made the mistake to spin it hem off the with a pristine balance sheet, which of course meant that the GE core was stuck with the debt. The health care business does generate strong FCF, so selling that one left me scratching my head. I think this is just an elaborate shuffle to cut the dividend in a not so obvious way - or in other other words more financial engineering. I think doing some convertible deal or a direct secondary would have been a more straightforward approach, but of course doing so would have been a huge embarrassment.

Don’t think that KO and KFC are great investment at current prices, and if I owned them, I would sell them and pay my taxes. Coporate taxes are lower now, which should reduce the hurdle. I think he can find investment which will compound much better. AXP for me is a questionmark. I personally like the profit, but I agree that it lost is cache with the younger generation. They need to overhaul their marketing.

Well, the stock is now almost 10% lower than after the secondary. Looks like the banks are stuck with bad paper. At some point, this ought to become interesting. I wonder what Einhorn is thinking- just another blunder. He really doesn’t seem to be good with insurance, just look at GLRE.

Which competitors are you referring too? Also, their growth in receivables this year will be significant when the officially onboard the Paypal book, which I believe will be 3Q. Competitors per Q1 presentation are COF, DFS, AXP