Spekulatius

What is the moat around subsea fiber assets exactly? I don’t see one except for thr relatively high cost to pu thr fiber in place. Once in place, it is much cheaper to light up additional capacity than to build a new one, so that may be a deterrent. However, if a deep pocketed competitor comes in and has a few hundred million they invest, I am guessing he could just put in all the subsea fiber he wants. It’s not like a last mile moat, where you have to dig up a few hundred thousand front yards to obtain connections.

Yeah, to change the world, you need to be like Bill Gates--old and well-educated. Wait a minute.... Never mind. Imagine what Mark Zuckerberg and Steve Jobs could have achieved, if they hadn’t dropped out of college ???

I have generally done well selling decent insurance companies below tangible book. Currently there isn’t much available, but there have been times, when you could buy decent insurance companies for 0.8x book.

I said this before, but GS even at current prices is still a better deal. Pay up 1.25x book for a first rate investment bank, rather than 1x tangible book for a 2nd grade one. Profitability and even OE are lower for GS too.

I don’t like about Musk that he is telling a lot of obvious BS. Facts and truth need to stand on their own, they don’t depend on who said it and what this person has done. Musk has and is doing some great things- no one can take it away from him. However his ambitions perpetually seem to be far greater than his funding sources, which sooner or later leads to him ending up broke, imo.

Good advice given here. I think in most cases, when the rent yield (assuming you would rent the place you are buyin) is higher than the interest cost (assuming you would finance 100%), I think a purchase is almost a no brainer. if you are married, SD is correct that your wife will make the decision for the most part. if you are single, you may find the unexpected benefit that owning a house will make you more attractive to many women, specially if you accomplish to do so at a relatively young age. 8)

He keeps the SHLD bonfire burning longer than I would have expected, but that unlikely changes the ultimate outcome. From the looks of it, this is the at least partial sale of the SYW program.

All these luxury stocks have been on a steep trajectory for the last year or so. I suspect the installment of a permanent leadership in China without the 5 year purge cycle has something to do with it. A while ago, there was a significant bear market in boozy stocks ( Pernod Richard, LVMH as well to some extend) because the government was cracking down on corruption and apparently those ultra premium cognac etc bottles were the currency. Based on how these stocks are doing and the reports about ultra premium Chinese rice liquor is doing, I am guessing that the winds have changed.

Yes, I have followed LVMH over the years, but never owned the stock. I follow most European global company to some extend. I have owned Nestle for a long time (bought in 2003), but had to sell, because my German brokerage where I held the shares would not do business with German citizens living in the US any more, due to more stringent money laundry laws, I never bought again, since the valuation at that point (and now) seems rich. Another company in ultra luxury is Hermès. They are ridiculously profitable, but the shares are expensive (40x earnings). I think the brand cache of the ultra luxury brands is unassailable, because part of it comes from their French origin. I think there are some Italian leather good / assessory companies that are cheap, albeit with less valuable brands equity.

The fact that this thread even exists is counterproductive (although some advice is worthwhile). It’s like getting help from your nerdy friends to prove that you are not nerdy. I would delete this thread and concentrating on proving they you contributed to raising your kids, that’s it. The fact that you did investments on the side doesn’t matter. Other folks have to go to work 8-10 hours a day and still don’t lose custody of their kids in the case of divorce - there is a high hurdle for this nowadays.

^ Excellent analysis from KJP and I believe his conclusions to be correct.

The BS part is not building the tunnel, it’s the $1 cost for a ticket. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/05/18/1526655545000/This-is-Musk--when-s-the-crash--/

LVMH is the luxury powerhouse. They own the best luxury brands in fashion, Champagne. Irreplaceable, since some of the cashe comes from the French origin. The Chinese love them. It’s prime real estate in luxury. They are meticulous about protecting their brands, When something doesn’t sell, they will destroy it. There is no discount/outlet dumping like with Coach, which is way lower in terms of brand status anyways. LVMH could be bought for mid teen PE’s quite a few times, typically when there are issues in the Chinese market.

This QZ.COM website has really good articles about other companies as well - Domino’s pizza, Adidas, Wallmart. Here is one about Domino’s pizza https://qz.com/se/perfect-company-2/1148899/the-secret-behind-the-uss-most-successful-pizza-chain-is-a-hyper-efficient-dough-factory/

+1000 Anyone interested in starting to learn about state of the art should pick up the proceedings of the North American Tunneling Conference, held bi-annually. Don‘t ever let the truth get in the way of a good story. His audience would have learned more watching YouTube videos on the subject than from Elon‘s talk. He is the master of fake Inventions. People believe hime because he did some really good work in SpaceX and to some extend Tesla and neglecting that he is even better at selling BS. ( Hyperloop, Tesla, Boring company). As ScottHall pointed out, the world lives on good stories and Elon is one of the best mixing truth with fiction.

So, what is Trump‘s vision for thr Postal service - deliver ever shrinking junk mail letter and postcards to households? FedEx and UPS must really like this idea.

Diesel Engines? That’s Elon’s BS. World leader is Herrenknecht. They have demonstrated 550m progress in a month through extremely hard rock in Norway. Doesn’t not like guys that have been doing nothing innovator for a 100 years to me. I am not claiming that Elon cannot do anything new, but it’s not like there is none out there innovating:

Seems dangerous! I live in Mexico and we are about to elect a new president and part of congress. The candidate that’s leading (by a lot!) is clearly socialist and against market systems. This doesn’t mean that if he wins he is going to nationalize private companies or move against industry, nor that congress will approve such decisions, but he may control an important part of congress and indeed make some moves against free markets. The peso is reflecting some of these fears and if I were to bet (I’m not), I would bet against the peso! I base my investment decisions on facts, not on news or emotions. But hey, that makes a market. Maybe i am wrong. Currency speculation is precisely that, speculation. And facts tend to be deceiving when dealing in an speculating environment, but seems you are comfortable and convinced of what you are doing. I was just trying to point you in the direction of some “facts” you consider news or emotions, so be my guest! I agree with above. A bad government in a developing country (I consider Mexico 2nd world) can do a lot of damage to the currency via debasement, just look at Argentina or Brazil a while ago, So this trade is assymetrical in a negative way, IMO.

I think Eric should look for documents that prove that he was involved with the kids, get statements from the people who been running the activities, friends, That ought to be easier than showing some post from and obscure Internet forum, which are almost more likely to play into the hands of your wife’s lawyer. Good luck!

TFSL is a real interesting case. Their outstanding shares are only 19% of total, so all the per Share numbers would need to be multiplied by 5. And they still seem quite a bit overcapitalized. At this point, buying back shares seems counterproductive. What the really should do is increase their dividend by 3x, which they could easily do and still increase their equity, that would get the shareprice going. I kind of like it - they are sort of stuck in the muck, because if they ever do a 2nd step, this. Would essentially become a cash box and if they don’t do anything, they would get taken out. Management is probably paralysed so they muddle along as they have. FWIW and unrelated to the merits of TFSL as an investment, I was a customer with them once - I had a home equity line which I never tapped, initiated in 2004. Then during the financial crisis, they started to clamp down on me, asked for all sorts of documentation of threatened to close it down. I supplied the info and they kept it open, but then when I refinanced in 2009, without taking out equity, they would not extend and closed the still untapped equity line down.

Sounds about right. Or buy MLP. Hawaiian Real Estate is red hot in some areas ::) I think that buying a nice waterfront home (high & dry if possible) anywhere in NW Florida is a much better investment. I would definitely agree. Buy the actual real estate. I've looked at JOE for a long time. I actually thought to myself about 6 months ago,"hey JOE is starting to look interesting". That said, it's basically just a larger CTO, with lower quality assets, in a less desirable area, with the same problems, and a decade plus of catching up to do. It's at best just a good trade vehicle here. I don't think you have much downside and you have Berkowitz implementing an aggressive buyback at your back. So trade the fluctuations, which is what I think any competent owner of this(outside of Bruce) is doing. The Kerrisdale thesis is basically just an updated version of Einhorn's short, and the SA article is basically just a wordy reiteration of the hopes and dreams that have gotten Fairholme stuck in quicksand.

I am not aware of another 2 step insurance demutualizations, but there are anlotnof thrift demutualizations, so I don’t think there are many direct comps. I vastly prefer insurance over banking currently, but if you compare with thrift conversions, it probably trades about inline. The high CEO compensation is a concern, since it could incentivize him to keep the current structure, where interference from shareholders is less likely. I think some of the rise in his compensation may be a one off from going public. The CEO is 52 years old and strikes me as entrepreneurial, they have a stock portfolio of about 50M (half of it unrelialized gains) which is unusual, but possible due to overcapitalisationl soz it’s a mini Berkshire in a way :). That is why I think they will not linger around in their current state too long. As for when the 2nd step occurs, it usually takes a couple of years. Management typically tries to make use of some of the extra capital raised in the first step and show higher profits,initiate a dividend and buy back stock to get thebshare price up. I would expect a dividend first, hopefully with a waiver from the mutual shares, as is customary. FWIW, they have another 10M buyback authorized, but have not started the buyback yet.

One way or the other, a crime has been committed with this transaction.? This is sort of how the Oligarch in Russia made their fortune buying then state owned assets for almost nothing. I think this should be immediately investigated and given enough evidence I think a couple of folks will go to jail and possibly this fraudulent transaction could be reversed.

The answer is most cases is simple - these companies are not compounded.If they were, they would be much larger than they are. So you need to strive to buy and sell them at the right time. I do have some asset rich stocks that have gone nowhere for a couple of years, even though their intrinsic value has increased. It happens. I don’t think that these stocks should be a huge part of portfolio, but a few of those are probably OK.the nice thing about thr, is that the share price has virtually no correlation to the general stock market, so if thr market turns down, you can probably use them as a source of funds to purchase stocks with more immediate potential. every once in a while, you will get a revaluation in some of these stocks, but the timing is often hard to predict.

I came along this Little GEM a sleepy 2 step mutual insurance conversion, with the 2nd step still outstanding. NI holding is a small North Dakota insurance company that is in the process of demutualization using a 2 step process. The first step was completed with the IPO in 2017 at $10 and the second step will be comolet dein the future. Shares are trading at $16.4 and current book value is $11.3/ share, but so far only 45% of the shares have been issued, the remainder will get sold at the second step. The way I see it, the adjusted book is going to be in between $20.5 assuming 2nd step completes at $16 or. $25 ($11.3/0.45 counting only the outstanding shares). This insurer actually has a pretty good underwriting performance with a profit from underwriting in 11/12 years. So at current prices, you get a property insurance company with pretty good underwriting that is totally overcapitalized that will rerate at some point in the future. Pretty good deal to put some funds into and just wait for the almost inevitable good thing to happen. FWIW, I have never seen a 2 step demutualization with insurers before, but itis very common with thrift conversions. The process appears to follow exactly the same playbook as far as I can tell.