Spekulatius

Higher interest rates are the likely reason for downwards pressure. Relatively speaking, VHTR actually had held up very well, way better than CMCSA, despite CMCSA having less leverage.

Cyprus is Europe’s money laundromat, especially for the Russians. Maybe it has to do with Putin’s re-election?

I bought some today. I think the valuation looks more than fair, which is quite in this market. I have been watching them since about 2010,but never bought shares. They are good operators and now how to make acquisitions work. I think they will make SKY work too. They bought NBC from those morons at GE for cheap and turned it around and it’s doing quite well. I think Comcast is suitable even for jockey investors, but their playbook is different then Malone’s -less leverage, less deal dependent and just focused to generate the max out of the business with what looks to be a long term view. I like it.

Seems to me that CMCSA at 8x EBITDA is a far better bet than LBTYA right now. I am surprised how far CMCSA has fallen, due to increased interest rates and maybe the SKY acquisition. However, CMCSA are excellent operators, while LBTYA seem to fumble around. I know where I will put my money.

Plus the public TV channels are basically free / low cost so the commercial channels need to match them and also distribute free. You buy a satellite dish and receiver and get the TV (> 50 channels) free. There are pay channels like premium soccer or HBO equivalent but the rest is free.

I think that these traditional tobacco companies have a lot more staying power than you think --> they have an addictive product. In addition, most of them have diversified into other business. Yes, they is true - their product is addictive, but now you can replace it with another addictive product that works just as well and is less damaging to your health and more socially acceptable. I compare it to LED lights replacing lightbulbs. For about a hundred years, lighting companies made bulbs and gas discharge lamps (Halogene etc) with very nice profit margins and relatively stable market shares. Then came the LED - a superior product and old market shares count for nothing and the profit margins went to hell. The comparison of LED vs tobacco is problematic in several ways, but I think there are a lot of similarities too. The fact that an upstart in the e-cig business (JUUL) can get almost 50% market shares and beat the marketing machines or Imperial brands and BTI (and maybe MO) tells you already something.

The dividends yield payed lease payment from an entity with significant net cash tells me already thwt it’s cheap. Vineyards are typically not properties with high cap rates.

I don’t know the answer to above questions and I don’t feel like digging. for those that are able and interested, here we s a link to the Germán forums I used to investigate a bit: https://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1215540-1-10/publity-immowert-einer

i have been looking a cheapishly looking tobacco stocks a while ago and bought a starter position and then started to do some more research and thing this business is on the cusp of a significant change from e-cigarettes. It seems that products from industry newcomers like Juul gain significant market share especially with younger folks. This makes sense to me since starters will likely not be bound by existing habits and chose the product that appears to work best. I have little doubt that smoking vaporware is much less harmful than tobacco and it certainly is less annoying to others. My guess is that adoption of e-cigs could rapidly increase and destroy the other tradional tobacco business. the fact that a newcomer like Juul can gain almost 50% market share means that the incumbent tobacco companies don’t have that much of an advantage and market shares will be redistributed, but moreover, it is not likely that the e-cig business will have the same obscene profit margins than the tobacco products. So get the last puff out of tobacco stocks and hope that these companies die faster than their :P

Higher interest rates will surely hurt cable companies in terms of higher interest costs, but utilities are generally a totally different beast. High quality cable systems are growing with attractive opportunities to deploy capital. Utilities are unable or unwilling to make similar types of investments. They are therefore growing minimally and are treated probably correctly like bond equivalents with much of the duration you would expect long-term bonds to have. So you say. I don’t see any evidence of highly attractive opportunities to deploy capital for LBTY, based on the results from the last few years. I think this should be treated as an utility and not a very profitable. I think investors make the mistake to equal Europe with the US cable business, but in fact Europe is way more competitive.

It’s part of the job descption if you are CEO. What did you expect him to say?

Pretty cheap stock, IMO. Sort of reminds me off QUCT, which owns a wealth management business, a huge farm in central coastal CA, real estate and a heap of cash. Like watching grass grow, or in the case of CAOX grapes.

I checked in Germán investment forums what the issue is with PBY.DE. It looks like these morons have violated a covenant in their (convertible?) bonds that allowed them distribute no more than 50% of their earnings and they violated that by distributing more. There is a concern that the company could be forced into liquidation, which in Germany isnpretty much a guaranteed zero for shareholders. Management tries to get a retroactive waiver on this covenant, but I think they don’t have much goodwill and some bond owners may like the idea of a liquidation. I do know these guys don’t have the best reputation when I looked at this stock a while ago and in Germany this goes a long way. I have no idea what is going to happen. Just my 10 min worth of research as a native German. I have no interest in this stock and I am not likely do more research either and likely have missed things.

That‘s a pretty awesome club. I would rather be member of this club in the 1920 Art Deco style with a storied history, rather than a new and maybe more practical but generic Equinox club. I think they will keeping because it is their legacy. If they develop the building, it will probably become a new place somewhere. Anything wrong with this either, because I think these sort of things have a real and enduring brand value.

The earnings transcripts are still available and don’t disappear behind the paywall. That is the main thing that attracted me to the website in the place.

Yes, SeekingAlpha jumped the shark. I don’t think that many people will pay up, the content for the most part is not worth it. I think hiding the older articles behind a paywall will do nothing but reduce page views.

I think the cable stocks will not like the increasing interest rates eventually. Considering how utilities have and continue to sell of, I am surprised how well cable stocks have held up.

It’s a low margin business , so the valuation is fairly low despite the 20B in revenue. A couple billion are small fries for BRK nowadays.

I‘d say that about 1% of share dilution for stock awards /year is fairly typical, give or take. I think GS was higher when I looked at them (because I owned the stock).

C is trading now at 1.2x book value (~$60/share) so the revaluation story has played out -future gains need to come from higher ROA.

It shouldn’t be based on race and gender but all companies should be open to all races and gender. I do think it makes a questionable impression if all top managers are white middle aged men. Contrary example - I visited some companies in my field in Silicon Valley a while ago and virtually all Engineers were Chinese. They would speak Mandarin to each other. I went to the cafeteria and the items for lunch was Chinese food, virtually all of it. The menu was mainly written in Mandarin with English scribbles next to it. How would you feel working at that place as a white minority engineer? That is how it must feel if you are of a minority and work at a white make dominated work place. I like to see people from different backgrounds in a workplace, and I am a white middle aged majority guy (except my upbringing in Europe perhaps). My wife is of Chinese descent (so I really don’t mind Chinese food) and our family definitely gets some second looks, when you travel through some heartland areas, they you don’t get where families like us are a commonplace occurance.

I owned this a while ago, but then sold out. I really like what they do on the funding side (online only bank, business model sort of like Geico in insurance), but the way they put the money to work shivers my timbers. For car loans, the credit unions absolutely have ruined the market. I could get 1.75% 5 year car loans a while ago and that is 2.5% now. I have no idea how Ally gets 6% overall on their portfolio. I personally think they even near prime (<660 score) is pretty scary and that is where ALLY seems to meddle. The credit union loans are easy to get at the car dealership, even if you are not mameber yet, if you just ask. I don’t know about commercial floor plan loans to dealers where ALLY is pretty strong. I wish they would diversify more away from car loans, as I think this business is more risky than the current numbers suggest.

Jewelers goes towards branded names and I don’t know where SIG is positioned within this trend. They weren’t around when I was shopping for an engagement ring many moons ago and I don’t do it that often. There were specialty shops in each larger city that had a reputation for quality and decent prices and where prices could be negotiated to some extend. I went the BlueNile way and was very pleased how it turned out. The Trend towards brands will hurt retailers like SIG unless they develop their own brands.

The EBITDA/EV ratio is going to come down (and has already come down) when all these assets that they have been building start to flow product and cash. It is pretty much a given that their debt ratios will improve. Most of their fees are index to inflation as well. There will be some lag, but I think they are well covered when inflation (and interest rates) rise. Same with utilities. I also think they will fold back EEP into ENB with an exchange in units for stock. EEP after the last tax ruling from the FERC cannot play their role as a funding vehicle any more and folding it back in a C-Corp would be directly acreditive. This would also serve the simplification narrative.

John, than you for the color - my comment was related to how things are (within a very limited time window) while your perspective is what they have done already and should be able to do in the future. I agree that SCHOUW has gone a far wayanf the stock, while not extremely cheap, is not expensive either. I do wonder if the Biomar is a good business though. The fish feed sound like a commodity business they feeds into another commodity business (farming salmon). Biomar is 50% of SCHOUW’s EBITDA so that question is relevant.My experience with other companies they worked in similar sectors (animal feed nutrient) was not that positive (EVK.DE - they have since dumped this business).