Spekulatius

Good points. Is Kimco the cheapest REIT of this kind that you know of or are there other cheap options as well? Depends on how you define cheap .KIM peers are DDR, KRG, BRX. All of them are either cheap or well disguised value traps. I would rate KIM to be the highest quality of the bunch The big issue are deflationary trends on rents over the long run due to online gaining share.

Meh. Quote from Michael Berman: "As chairman, Berman's top priority will be to continue MBA's role in redesigning the government sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "I am honored to serve our industry as MBA's 2011 chairman," Berman said. "MBA will continue to lead the battle to restructure GSEs with private capital and a new, clearly defined, but limited government role in guaranteeing mortgage-backed securities." Context of Michael Berman for those unfamiliar: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/07/business/a-revolving-door-helps-big-banks-quiet-campaign-to-muscle-out-fannie-and-freddie.html Seems to be thwt the conclusion of this argument is too keep everything the way it is , since it seems to work just fine.

I believe MAN (owned by Volkswagen ) builds turbo machines/units as well.

If it were not for Buffett's position, perhaps the share price would be substantially lower, and then some of us would be very interested in it at a certain price. Well, SRG pretty much trades at the price the old man bought it two years ago, so that is a start.

The path to get to. $17/Sqft is tougher than initially thought , but more importantly cap rates appear to be dropping due to retail malaise and higher interest rates. I don’t really have a hard time envisioning cap rates of 8% for B-malls, which is essentially what you are getting when buying KIM right now. Many will question the need to take on development risk like with SRG, when you can buy fully developed properties cheap as well.

It’s a big deal in Germany, but not in Long Island. I have seen it quite a few times, since I moved there. I don’t know if those drivers are Jews or Italians or just the regular natives. 8)

I'd be interested to know why. So far, as far as I can tell, they have, in no particular order: - simplified the portfolio, selling speculative junk as well as Conwed and Knight and putting Chrome into runoff - concentrated on likely cash-flowing winners (Berkadia, Linkem, HomeFed, Garcadia. Maybe Vitesse should be in here but I never trust E&Ps to pay out cash rather than DRILL!) - returned Jefferies to a reasonable level of profitability - generated spectacular ebitda at National Beef (ok this wasn't their doing, it was the cycle, but they made the right decision to keep it - I'll declare final victory if they sell it well) - started converting the NOLs to cash given profits at JEF and NB - restructured HRG/Spectrum to optimise portfolio/sell assets/reduce debt/use NOLs - LUK's stake will potentially be spun to shareholders in 2018 - started LAM and got it to breakeven - clearly something that will be very valuable if it works and fairly low downside if it doesn't - done one major deal on which they've already profited despite operational problems, and they have most of its cash flows in perpetuity yet to come - great deal structure for us (FXCM) - positioned LUK to be able to move fast when they see opportunity That's an absolute transformation in 5 years, and while it may not yet have shown up in the financials I think a lot of things are starting to align. Generating cash and converting the NOLs generates huge optionality for the next deal. I sold shortly after LUk became an de facto investment bank with some company odds and ends. Why own a second grade investment bank when you could own the real thing (GS ) cheaper at that point? I did buy GS from the proceeds and since sold one too. I didn’t look back. I don’t think Jeffries is really worth book, they don’t generate profits close to their cost of capital, which I think would be at least 8% post tax. Heaven forbid what it’s worth if we have a market crash or recession.

I don’t really care about their business model or how much money their drivers make. I Luke them as a customer, they have created a way better way and interface to hire transportation, when I need it.

But what is Uber’s edge running a large fleet of cars exactly?

It is not recommend to hold MLPs in IRA. While it is correct that most MLP don’t generate the dreaded UBITA (unrelated business income) things like hedging games or business reorganization can create UBITA that get even a moderate position over the $1000 threshold. Interactive Brokers forbids even to have MLPs in IRA‘s at all.

Thanks, i am guilty. Thinking about it it is funny that i got lured into this "growth" investment just because Buffet is involved. I should just stick to my quant models, i feel much more comfortable there. One rule in investing is to never coattail. It doesn’t matter who you coattail, but I have personally found that it never works. Now, I use other investor buys as an idea generator, but I would never buy a stock that falls out of my own comfort zone, just because somebody else does. I feel the rule to never ever coattail should be written in stone. I might buy SRG at some point down the road, but I think I will get the same, if not a better rice than Buffet.

FFH is an US Business quoted in CAD for all practical purposes, IMO.

I know where the additional NOI is coming from - roughly $115M annually from the $1.1B Development pipeline, but I think assuming that the base NOI of $155M is stable if far of base. the base NOI is dropping quickly, right now even quicker than development pipeline completions add to it. That is why the NOI is falling right and and I think it might keep falling until the pipeline Ames their way through and the Sears store closing abate or more likely, when they are all closed. Thus, total NOI will be much smaller than the $273M number you cited for Q4 2019, IMO. I didn’t know about the 5.2% Cap rate on their JV properties to SPG, but I think those are A property locations and hand selected by SPG (some are in SPG existing malls), so I don’t think they are representative of SRG portfolio. SRG on average are B mall locations, the $17/sqft rent on completed redevelopment properties tells us that much. I don’t think that SRG is a bad bet, but there does seem to be a cash shortfall. selling JV properties will improve their balance sheet, but selling rented assets will also lower the NOI, so it is not that straightforward of a case. I am watching this and I think we might see prices that are better than what WEB paid for his stock somewhere down the road.

Where do you get above numbers from? The base rents from Sears (the $155 NOI/year, I assume) are not stable, they are falling quicker right now then the rents from redevelopment projects rise, due to accelerated store closures. I would also pretty much assume that Sears by the end of Y2019 won’t exist in it’s current form any more. Also, the 6% CP rate assumption is too low. Kimco, which owns on average B properties like Sears does, trades at an almost 8% CP rate right now.I think 7% cap rate would be more realistic. Still, the redevelopments are value accrediting, but just not that much. I also predict that SRG will have to raise equity this year. I like SRG, but there are a lot of headwinds to the redevelopment story.

Thanks for posting. I bought a few shares in that Japanese RR company 9142.T, which seemed like a straightforward thesis.

Do you really think that the government will let Fannie/Freddie go when the housing market indeed turns south? FWIW, I don’t think it will and I am about to find out first hand because I will need to sell a home and buy another one due to relocation. The fast rise in interest rates certainly will give some first time home buyers reasons to hesitate and some might be priced out the market.

A lot of private companies would be a good fit for BRK like Chick- fill-a or In n Out burgers (nobody needs to explain Burgers to WEB) but it’s mute, since we do not know if the owners are open to sell. Published are companies are always on sale, sort of. I am better on Andean with GE, because there have been a lot of tangents with BRK and WEB in the past, and they do have moaty business lines. i don’t think and outright takeover is likely, but the purchase of business line or an equity of preferred injection of capital could be very beneficial for both.

Not great compared to the SPY, but great compared to Reits, which have gone to hell with rising interest rates and the retail malaise.

Just be aware of pickpockets in tourists sides, they are way better than in the US. They won’t hold a gun on your head, they will just rid you of your wallet without you knowing. Generally speaking, Europe is much safer than the US, especially tourists sites.

I think BRK will do some sort of a deal with GE. There are just on many tangents- their insurance business, their leasing business (where cost of capital is important), pension management, equity injection, partnership in business (locomotives?) or a leading stake. The Buffet halo alone will be very valuable for GE, as it was for BofA.

BH is now producing operating losses. Also, Corporate and other expenses are up around 50% YoY. I guess Mr. Big is having fun. The commoners not so much.

Another railroad in the US is not likely since they would cause antitrust issues. I don’t think that AIG fits what they are looking for. I think they eventually need to purchase foreign companies, maybe from owner operators that want to sell out and put their company under a nice roof.

The biggest risk with BRK is WEB age. I think once WEb passes on the baton, BRK will fundamentally change. Nobody can fill WEB shoes and do the Job the same way he does, or they will do it badly. do BRK will have to change, my guess ist hat headquarter staff will significantly expand. I also think that BRK will have to to beef up their financial controls, the system in placebos probanly ver weak and build on a web of personal relationships and trust that won’t work past WEB departure.

Worth revisiting now, with the new mangement in Place from Transcanada. Company is delevering (debt is at 2.8x EBITDA down from a 4.2x Peak) and they seem to be cutting cost and overhead quickly. I bought a starter position a few day ago, because I like what I see. I think the new mangement should make a tremendous difference, the assets were good all along, IMO.

If Einhorn would buy back stock at .75 that would maybe be good for shareholders of GLRE (assuming the thing is worth more than .75) but it would mean less money into his fund to charge 2 and 20 so it's not gonna happen. I would love for someone to ask the question on a call though. The mental pretzel to justify not doing the buyback is gonna be a lot of fun. Agreed on above and these insurance /hedge fund vehicles seem to resemble more poorly managed high fee closed end funds rather than the BRK Original that they were build after. I would love an activist to put pressure on this.