Spekulatius

Yes, the distribution angle makes a lot of sense, since DISCA and SNI are both fairly small compared to other media companies and the cable operators in the US.

That part is a joke, DVA is clearly a service organization, since when should they do consult on treatment options? That is what the doctors are for. Also, obtaining an organ transplant isn’t easy and the waiting list is long. Patients are generally aware of the transplant option, but it they just aren’t enough transplants available and many patients are ill suited for the procedure.

The content inflation is real. Amazon and Netflix now produce a lot of content that competes with the existing players. Scripted content >> non scripted content. For documentaries, I can pull all I want from YouTube for free or Amazone prime or Netflix. That is a big threat to Discovery, which has to compete and it’s is one reason why Discovery and similar channels go into scripted content. That however also begs the question how Discovery channel can differentiate itself. Personally, I found that Fiscovery channel was not missed after cutting the cord and is easily replaced by YouTube or Amazon content. I never liked the scripted shows in Discovery channels to begin with l but I do know that some people do. These scripted shows don’t travel as well internationally though. I wonder how much cost cutting can really be done between SNI and DISCK without loosing something too. Generating content does not really seems to have much economies of scale and that is really where most of the operating cost is.

GGP looks interesting, but the debt load at 8x EBITDA is just too high, SRG is an interesting example in what Whitman calls resource conversion. With a 11-12% cash yield on invested capital for renovations and finding new tenants, they make about 22-24% on equity (assuming 50% equity) or 4x they invested equity, if you assume that Cap rates for their properties are in the 6% range fully stabilized after thr conversion is complete..

Yeah, this treatment method is a breakthrough. For Long time, a lot of experts thought they immunotherapy for cancer may not be feasible because cancer cells are just like other body cells, except they they duplicate out of control, so it is hard to discriminate any therapy to only attack cancer cell. but yet, here we are. I think the big challenge will be to “industrialize” the method and make it more accessible.

Tesla is in a way a company that has a high likelihood of being fraudulent in one way or another . Strong willed and visionary founder /CEO who does not take no for an answer, high management turnover, visionary but apparently very ineffective manufacturing organization, abysmal GAAP financials, mergers with related companies (Solarcity). It’s a fertile soil for fraud to grow.

This begs the question - if you like Bridgewaters unique management style so much, why did you leave after just 3.5 years? In my book that is not a long time to spent with an employer your really like working for.

It seems to me the the difference they you are seeing is simply due to capital raised by issuing stock.

Curious if anyone had access to the JP Morgan report? Saw the highlights on Schwab - looks like the same old rehashed stuff from last year. Added more today - light volume day, buyback blackout, and Oct 31st coming up - maybe DVA gets flushed out here? We will see! JPM: ** JPM analyst Gary Taylor raises concerns about DVA's level of earnings power derived from American Kidney Fund's (AKF) operations, amid ongoing legal battle between payors, dialysis providers and AKF ** Taylor estimates DVA contributes ~$100 mln to AKF annually and receives as much as $500 mln-$700 mln of annual pretax income benefit If I take Taylors estimates and say the worst case would be a 600 mln annual pretax loss (700 - 100 in contributions) I get 1490 mln - 600 mln = 890 mln in pre-tax income. If I apply a 12 times pre-tax earnings multiple on the equity I get to a 10680 mln market cap vs. current market cap at approximately 10300 mln. I don't see a lot of downside for a highly regulated business with attractive long-term economics. What risks am I not seeing? I think a business under siege can trade way lower than that. Why pretax earnings? I have seen plenty of business trade below 12 x postal earnings, when they were under the gun.

Call me skeptical that the radically transparancy really applies to everyone equally and that leads to people giving rational and unemotional ratings to everyone.I think they system is just meant to be gamed with kickbacks or revenge ratings. I am not debating that it works for Bridgewater, but I think it would not work in most places in the wild. Bridgewaters employes are handselected and highly paid and the environment is fairly academic. I am fairly sure that the average company cannot operate in the same way.

This model works only in certain industries like investment banking or hedge funds, where the pay scale is very high. Think about it - why would a software engineer deal with that level of stress and crappy work environment while getting paid maybe 150k/ year? You probably have to double and triple the pay to get people to work there. For 10-20% more, not many would do it and turnover would be sky high. Is it worth to pay eomployees double the salary so you can put them under that level of stress and portably still have huge turnover? I don’t think so for most tech companies.

South/Central American food has limited success outside of the U.S. for whatever reasons. Europeans are all about Turkish food and, to a lesser extent, Asian food. Very few seem to gravitate towards South/Central American quisine. I don't know why - but that is the preference and experience of other chain operators. I think there is a market for fast casual well tasting food pretty much everywhere, but the demand is met in different ways. In the US, it happens to be Tex mex, in Europe, where people are used to eating bread, the Döner is popular and those places pretty much everywhere (few are chains) and they are cheap and generally pretty good. I think it is hard for other ethnic food operators to crack into these markets when there is a well competition. I think Chipotle could do well in bigger cities, but they probably wouldn’t be able to go beyond that.

Corporate culture is only a positive when it permeates trough the entire company, not just a few managers. Most companies will tell you that they have a culture, but it is BS. I think the culture of Walmart is for example is Long gone, at least the reports about female employees of my local Walmart sorting out their differences in a fistfight after work suggest so. Costco certainly has one, as has Starbux or Company like Merck. Generally , employees will have a strong loyalty to employers that treat them well in terms of pay, benefit and perks. DVA has some of this on a management level, but I am not sure that is true on thrnvery ground level of a dialysis center - at least my small sample size suggests that it is not true everywhere. Also anothè food for though, even if the relation AKF is not illegal and may not be that important than some of the bearish articles suggest, there is the simple fact that this somewhat sophisticated kickback schemes exists suggest to me ethics isn’t DVA’s strong suit. That said, I do think the company provides a valuable service at a fairly low cost and they try to get it right for patients; it can’t be compared to VRX at all. I own a few shares, but just those basic observations and the scuttlebut that I am getting prevents me from buying more.

I think Gregmal hit the nail on the head. The market is not an excuse. Mr Market is here to serve you not to guide you. I do think that it is Ok to underperform a bull market that run basically on multiple expansion, but it is not excusable to lose money in such a market, by going short etc. I would also think that if you are underperforming, that you need to be able to make the case, that you are taking on less risk than investing in a market index.

So it took them 10 month to find out that prior management didn’t account for inventory correctly? Good luck blaming them or trying to claw back anything.

Can you not take that part of the discussion offline please. 8) Feelings don’t matter. My opinion that Thiry has outlived his usefulnes are based on anecotdal observations (or probably heresay) that they core value (Villages = local management, leaders walk-in the talk etc.) don’t permeate to the local level any more (if they ever have done so). His corporate Khumbaja meetings are a joke and quite honestly hard to relate too. I don’t think there is a lot of employee loyalty either. It is true that he saved what would later become DaVita and grew it into an industry leading company, that is hard driving and cost concisous. I think management would have more credibility if they would put it just like that, without all the bravura that Thiry considers important. I think for some long term employees that have been around for a long time, it may be important still, but for new employees,it just does not ring true. Fresenius seems to do just as well without this stuff and they are better positioned, imo, because they have put their muscle behind the equipment and the consumable sides of the business as well, rather than just the service. That said, I don’t consider DVA badly managed, but I am not sure that management has the right LT vision to really continue to grow the company and make it future proof.

I understand what you're saying. But are these training/testing requirements that allow for a high barrier to entry (and high returns), or is it the duopoly created by Fresenius and DaVita using loopholes and exploiting private insurance? I'm still trying to fully understand the moat and what would cause it to be lost. It is a commoditized business in the sense that the treatment and the price they charge is standardized, but that is true for a lot of other medical treatments too. They definitely need to operate with RN’s on the floor at all times and a doctor needs to be on call. as mentioned above, the quality of care is very important, most patients are very sick and their blood pressure and medication (Heparin, EPO etc) needs to be managed. Nurses need to be trained on the machines and the treatment and patients management and the work is quite intense as stated above, which in conjunction with the moderate pay results in considerable turnover. Mistakes on the floor can easily result in death of a patient. This is certainly not a business that every idiot can run. FWIW, I don’t like the CEO and I think he has outlived his usefulnes, but he regards DVA as his baby (somewhat justifiable so).

No offense taken, just stating facts, as I see them. I already posted my opinion regarding political change above. I think VW stock itself could be or become a value play. I know that in the past it has traded for 2 x EBITDA from time to time,

i agree with above, the election has no impact on how VW goes about their business. VW used to be influenced by Nordrhein Westfalen state politicians when they had a higher stake (~25%) but now their stake is much lower and the state had less influence. In any case, I don’t see politician necessarily pushing for monetization or VW assets anyways, regardless of who is in power. The election is a non-even for Audi shareholders.

A lot of people at my work own an SE, presumably due to its compact size. Not everyone uses their phone so surf internet or play games. They want a compact phone and make calls and check their emails. FWIW, the SE can be had for <$150 from several prepaid providers, including for postpaid ATT. That’s a great deal considering that the guts of it are basically a 6S phone. I would consider it , if my eyesight were better.

I can’t speak for others, but I don’t own my (small) position because of WEB. I own this knowing because the stock is cheap and I believe they do have a narrow moat, due to being the low cost competitor and have a hug market share, together with Fresenius. I also own this because I have some ground level exposure through family (which I don’t want to evaluate further) and it does not feel like a fraudulent operation, it feels like a very lean operation. so, I think the statement from the article above, that their connection to AKF is their only competitive advantage is incorrect. Now, I acknowledge the risk from somewhat broken revenue model, where some customers pay 4x what others do, for the same service, but again discrepancies in pricing are allover the healthcare system, albeit at probably a smaller extent. Also, hurting these cost providers of a very essential service does not really help reduce the overall cost in the healthcare system. If Fresenius and DVA get into trouble and need to close down centers, those patients would need to go a a hospital, where costs are many times higher, due to much higher overhead. I would not own a large position in DVA, because I really cannot estimat the risk that something will change in the pricing that could drastically reduce DVA’s profits, but oeverall, it seem that the stocks valuation reflect this risk and makes it a fair bet at current prices.

Comparisons with VRX are misguided - DVA does not sell pills that cost $5 to make and are quasi generic for $500. the margins in this busines are much lower than with Pharma. Dialysis is a tough business where it is important to keep cost low and utilization high while at the same time delivering quality work. I think there is an issue with the business model where a relatively small percentage of their patient generate all the prints, but this is by no means that same story than VRX.

All the buzz is around the X clearly, so I think the X will exceed expectations and the iphone 8/+ will underwhelm. I think the risk for Apple is that the X has some issues that impact sales or they sim0ly can’t handle the very Volume and debottleneck their manufacturing fast enough to meet demand. Overall, it is very good news for Apple, if they can increase the the MSRP of their phone by a few hundred $ without losing sales.

Not that I believe it will happen, but if there is an ounce of justice in the business, this stock should be a zero. Companies have been bankrupted for far less negligence.

I am from Germany and I did weigh in. I have been living in the US for 20 years now, so I guess I could judge the sentiment wrong.