oldye

Paying more than 1x sales for an old school discount retailer? ::) They use an operator owner model, management gets a 10% stake in the store's revenue in exchange for providing/paying the labor and taking care of overhead. Usually its a husband/wife team that works crazy hours. Corporate provides all the inventory and covers the rent. https://thegrocerystoreguy.com/is-the-grocery-outlet-independent-operator-program-a-good-deal/#:~:text=As%20the%20owner-operator%2C%20you,a%20cut%20on%20every%20side.&text=And%20ultimately%20it's%20their%20name,of%20the%20independent%20owner-operators. They carry most of the same standard brands found in most supermarkets and in addition they also offer close out deals they buy directly from manufacturers or distributors. If you are looking for a deal on some older wine, you might find some great bargains at GO. There is a bit of the treasure hunt atmosphere and if you enjoy shopping you might like their stores. Totally anecdotal but a couple of years ago, we were looking to buy some canned goods to donate to charity and did not find any extra ordinary values. They just opened a new location a few blocks from me in an old Walgreens locations across the street from Albertsons. The Walgreens closed about a year ago because business was slow..Many of their other locations in Socal are old Fresh and Easy locations that also failed because business was slow. Sure they're growing same store sales 7% YOY during a pandemic.. but how much of that was one time hoarding? I don't shop there so I can't really give any insight into how popular they are, but I think the entire grocery business is changing quickly and permanently. You have to remember that they are competing directly with Aldi (similar store atmosphere.. few employees, dim lighting) who last I read is/was opening 2,000 stores in the west, 99 cent store, Dollar Stores, Trader Joes, Safeway, Kroger, Target, Amazon, Costco, Sprouts, Smart and Final, Stater Bros, Wholefoods, Walmart and a bunch of regional and ethnic stores that make up a majority of grocery sales in Socal. My biggest question - Why would anyone bother to go shopping inside a store when they can order anything they want delivered to their door from Walmart or Amazon without paying too much more? The only answer I've heard is that some people just need to get out of the house and they like to touch the fruit/vegies before they buy them. Our online shopping is probably up 700% over the past 12 months, with probably 95% of our grocery spend shifting to online, with no plans to go back. It is just way too convenient, the fruits and vegies from Walmart mostly suck, so we get those delivered from Wholefoods/Amazon. We are about to renew our Walmart membership, it saves me at least an hour per week plus wear and tear on the car. I wouldn't bet much on any retailer that isn't figuring out how the hell they can compete with online delivery memberships. I think Costco fell asleep at the wheel because Amazon and Walmart are about to each their lunch if they don't figure this out fast. Relying on Instacart and upcharging 15% on each item completely defeats the purpose of their business model when I can pay $2 per week + tip and get the same stuff delivered at a similar price. Forgot to order something? Walmart offers free next day shipping on dry goods like cereal. I can't imagine anyone going back to the stores once they get used to this. I thought curbside pick up was addicting..these guys aren't even doing that. Costco is barely just testing that out...

Numbnuts here, not saying this isn't priced in but just going to leave this here https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm It also looks like all the new deposits created in q2 are not sticky after all and healthy consumers are paying their high interest debt back as fast as humanly possible. Average rates on outstanding credit card balances were down 10% last I checked too so double whammy. If there is another stimulus, it will only accelerate the trend in my opinion

Not necessarily bankruptcy, just a slow painful fall from grace. Prior to 2008, a huge % of Americans purchased their Appliances at Sears. I think they had like 40%+ of the market. Wells used to be responsible for more than 20%+ of all US Mortgages, now it's down to less than 10%. Rocket Mortgage is growing at 19% per year.. I think Pobrai summarized it best, sure there are assets at Sears, but there are hundreds of thousands employees between you and those assets. It costs a lot of money to fire bankers and terminate leases. It also costs a lot of money catch up with your competitors technology. Why do you bank with Wells Fargo? Friendly, fast and helpful service? Nope Lots of Atms? You can use any Atm for free with a Schwab account. Lower rate loans? You can find much better rates at credit unions and they don't ask you to keep 250k in liquid accounts if you need a jumbo loan. On top of all that you have to deal with an asset cap. Why won't Chase or Bofa, Rocket Mortgage Lending Tree etc continue to eat their lunch?

How much do you think it will cost to layoff 25%+ of the workforce, close 1000+ branches, modernize the technology and fix the culture at Wells Fargo? Just playing devils advocate, because on paper it looks like a no brainer. If they can cut 10 billion in costs, and keep most of their current business, its selling at about 5x earnings. I have talked to a former employee at Wells Fargo and the problems at the bank are in their dna. It definitely was much more than just poor incentives, the culture at the bank is truly awful. They punish whistle blowers, and promote yes men. Former Wachovia employees are still at Wells Fargo. The new ceo hasn't done anything to improve the culture so far. The recent comments by the ceo about not being able to find enough black talent is also concerning and extremely tone deaf. Can't imagine how low morale is right now at the company. Reading employee boards doesn't help dissuade my concerns.. I never understood why anybody paid to be a Wells Fargo customer, location? Inertia? If you close 25% of the branches, you make it far less convenient for people who are used to paying fees to continue to bank with you. I don't know anyone in my current circle that would be willing to pay a monthly fee to write checks..I think the 5 billion per year they collect from fees will disappear over time. Consumers, who can are obviously deleaveraging and paying off high interest credit cards as quickly as they can. Now you have all these issues to clean up while dealing with shrinking net interest margins and more nimble competition just waiting to eat your lunch. Wfc reminds me of Sears.

I used it for a year and just resubscribed, my apartment building requires insurance and at $5.00 a month its less than half of what Geico quoted for basic coverage. I think the most disruptive thing they have going for them is that its easy to forget to cancel. I wonder how long they'll last. Just saw that they have a 3 billion dollar market cap...Risk on...Jesus..how is a company with no competitive advantages, that's losing 100+ million per year worth $3 let alone 3 billion? Am I missing something?

I couldn't be there this year any good notes available?

How does KOG compare to LTS in growth rate? Kog is also spending 940 million on capex vs 525-575 million for Lightstream. Lightstream is currently projecting an exit rate of 45,000-47,000 vs 39-41k for Kog. If only Lightstream just turned off the dividend and drilled a few more exploratory wells. Lightstream is worth more than 6 billion dollars at $100 oil. Being cashflow positive combined with a cheap valuation, deep drilling inventory makes it a very attractive takeover candidate right now.

Craft Beer is becoming more like wine everyday, people are willing to pay the added cost for more flavor. Almost 20% Growth YOY in $ Sales in the U.S. Craft beer is now 20% of total beer sales in some parts of the country, the rest will soon follow.

Time to go back and reread Intelligent Investor? The stock market in the. short-term is a voting machine...it doesn't have to, and does not revalue a stock based on fundamental changes, hence creating opportunities for value investors to do what we do. ::) During the cds/short days we were buying after huge moves had already happened, I would not consider bbry up 25% to be a huge move, especially since ffh is trading substantially above tangible book.

Like I said, kind of crazy how we all came to the same conclusions... 100k volume shows that Touchstone is in strong hands I guess..at least at these price levels. 100k is nothing for some of the members of this board, let alone everyone that reads it. Ideally Lts/SD gets bought out before Mr. Market has wakes up...

I think it's interesting how so many of us took similar positions, I sold out of my FFH (after 8 years) and went all in on oil and gas. I own the lts common, sd in the money leaps and touchstone exploration. Don't like talking about touchstone on here because it's so illiquid. But I hope to get back into FFH once these companies realize their value.

back of the envelope: Enterprise Value after recent divestiture ~ 3.9 Billion less 239 million in sold assets since q1 - 3.66 Billion Less value of 80,000 acres in the Duvernay - (600-800 million) 2.8-3.0 Billion Proforma Fund flow from ops - 635-660 million implies a current Funds flow multiple somewhere around 4.4x You can definitely argue that 4.4x cashflow is fair for a commodity company and that is your choice. But right now I think there is a good chance we see higher oil prices and Lts will continue to reduce debt and unlock value. Looks like they put another block of land on sale through RBC, submission deadline is June 19th and we should expect to see another 100+ million reduction in debt if a deal is made. The natural gas injection results look promising and I like having the upside of technological advances that will unlock even more value from their land.

Lots of room left, Lightstream's equity is still a 40-50 cent dollar at current prices. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/14/business/energy-environment/oil-industry-in-iraq-faces-setback-to-revival.html “The collapse of Iraq would bring an international oil crisis,” said Dragan Vuckovic, president of Mediterranean International, an oil service company that supplies state oil companies in Iraq. “It would mean crude oil would go up to $150 a barrel. It could spread unrest to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.” :-[

GM will strike back? :o More importantly Berkeley???? My guess, this is Mohnish's new means of accessing the new car pool lane on the 405.

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