DTEJD1997

Hey all: Thank you for numerous, well thought out replies! This is what make COBF such a valuable resource these days.

Hey all: I have not been following this too close, but I do online sales. There are some BIG changes/problems coming to online sales. Packaging costs (boxes, tape, foam peanuts) are going up. Some sub-categories have gone up 4 times in the past year or so. The price increases have been small each time, but if something goes up in cost 2 or 3 or 4 percent each time, it adds up. My suppliers have told me to expect more of the same. Shipping costs, especially at USPS have gone up. This is especially true on smaller, light weight packages. Perhaps the biggest problem of all has been labor. Here in Detroit, the Post Office is breaking down. A lot of postal employees are single mothers/parents. When Covid-19 hit, and skools closed, who is going to look after the children? They are stuck at home. So huge numbers of postal workers are not able to come into work. My local post office sometimes does not even up to the public. Most days, most of the front counter clerks do not show up. So the management has to man the counter. Mail is not being delivered on every route, on every day. Some routes have gone to DELIVERY EVERY OTHER DAY. Perhaps the worst of all, is that the distribution centers (for outbound packages) are completely overwhelmed. Packages will come in and not get sent out for 3-4 days, sometimes the wait time to go out is OVER a week. This is a bottleneck at the distribution center, which results in ultimate delivery times of sometimes 2 weeks. To be fair to the Post Office, I have had tremendous delays, but no package has been lost OR not ultimately delivered. I have now had to move a good percentage of my shipping to Fed-Ex or other providers. Frequently, the cost is higher than USPS. Fed-Ex, so far, has done a fairly good job, but even they have delays. The delays at Fed-Ex are no where near as bad at USPS, but they are there. I think ALL delivery services are going to have labor issues moving forward. The cost of labor will be going up, and the price of delivery is going up. Obviously SFIX gets a better deal than I do....but rates for EVERYBODY will be going up. Couple that with increased cost of packing materials. That is going to be a difficult head wind going forward.

Hey all: Does anybody have any ideas for hedging the price of gold? Obviously, one can buy puts in GLD. Anybody know of anything else (leaving out futures)?

Don't know if I agree with everything in the podcast 100%...but it is still very good and very informative. This type of posting, that adds "intelligence" to the board is more of what is needed. JRM, thank you for taking the time to post it.

I think there are some interesting situations in the gold sector. I've got quite a bit of my capital invested there. KL looks like a nice company, but it is AWESOMELY expensive....P/S, P/B, price to cash flow and so on. My 2nd largest gold position is trading for less than book value, less than 1X cash flow, about 2X FCF, is rapidly rebuilding their balance sheet (cash exceeding debt in 1st quarter 2021?), proving more reserves, getting more operationally efficient (increasing ounces mined), in good tier-1 jurisdictions and so on. They also have some non-operational mines/claims that should provide about 10-15% of market cap in cash in about a year or so when they are sold/options exercised. I would prefer to invest in gold miners that are cheap on current valuation metrics...thus if the price of gold does indeed go up....their valuation metrics should catch up AND you get even more cash flow/earnings. Kind of a "double whammy".

Fitz: It is raining money from the sky with CLWY! They have already paid a dividend of $1/share in the last 12 months. For some investors, that is MORE than what they initially paid for their stock. Of course, over the years, CLWY has paid a few more dividends. With $19mm in cash, they can certainly pay out yet ANOTHER dividend in December. I would think that they could pay ANOTHER $1/share dividend in December. Of course, that is assuming that everything for the company is running reasonably OK, and they don't need $$$$ to open more location(s). The returns on CLWY has simply been stupendously incredible.

Not sure about that...I think that CMCL in the late 90's, early 2000's might have been a true penny stock, with no significant operations? I only know about the more modern history. CMCL bought the Blanket Mine from Kinross in 2006. All sorts of new management was brought in then. Maybe recapitalized? The whole company changed in 2005, both in terms of operations and management. Modern management has largely delivered on what they say. Of course, sometime things were slower than expected, sometimes it was more expensive, sometime a bumpy road I bought in initially shortly after CMCL initiated their dividend (2012). That was about 7 years ago or so for me. The dividend yield was about 10% then. Since then, they have maintained the dividend, and have raised it numerous times. I have traded in & out a few times, but have been holding & adding for the past 4 years or so. 7 years is probably not a complete cycle, but it is certainly not short term. Also, look to the future with CMCL. Zimbabwe has made tremendous strides in their society and economy. Of course, they have a long way to go, but they are generally on the right path. Look at CMCL, they have run the Blanket Mine incredibly well. They are about to increase production significantly with a new central shaft. The government has invited them to bid on government owned properties. It is expected that CMCL will bring these future properties quickly into development. That they have the capital, experience and knowledge to get an asset up & producing cash flow. Set CMCL aside, there are some other mining companies that have done incredibly well over long (decades) of time. For example, is a 20X increase in stock value over 24 years an acceptable return? What if significant dividends were paid all along that time, increasing the 20X return? Well, we will see.

LOL! Agree. Gold miners are perennial destroyers of capital. Calling gold miners a value play might be the biggest oxymoron I've ever heard. Let's take a look back to the beginning of Covid how did that work out for the investors holding gold as a hedge? They took an even bigger beating than the market. But that's where your wrong D33pV4lue gold is a hedge against inflation. Then can someone show me a chart of equities index to inflation vs Gold indexed to inflation? Investing in gold is a fool's game why don't we just go out and buy some crypto? Not to say there arent times when trading miners isn't a good strategy, but as "long-term investors" it makes no sense. Sorry for the rant I will now mute myself from adding my 2 cents so as not to disturb the people in this thread that are actually interested in gold. BOL Wow: Where to start? Sure, most gold companies and most miners are not very good companies over long periods of time...but then aren't most companies like that? It is really quite simple when you get down to it. You treat gold miners like any other business. You evaluate them for their sales, the cash flow, the free cash flow, the dividends. You look for management that grows things over time, that provides value to shareholders, that treats things like a BUSINESS, not a hobby. There are indeed mining companies that HAVE provided value over months, quarters, years, cycles. There are some unusual things going on right now. There are some gold miners that are clearly NOT properly understood by "the street", and trade at "silly" valuations. For example, my family and I have been piling into a Canadian gold miner that is trading for about 1x cash flow, 2x free cash flow, and will have a NET cash balance in less than a year. They have had problems, but solved 90% of those problems about a year ago. They have a history of paying out dividends before their time of problems. When you are debt free and trading for 1x cash flow....hard for it not to go up in value over time? Or what about CMCL in Zimbabwe? I've owned that for a long time. Got back a huge amount of my initial purchase in dividends. Not playing with "house money" yet, but getting very close. The company is in better position today that it was 1 year ago, 2 years ago and so on. The future looks pretty good. I've made multiples on my initial purchase price, and expect it to continue into the future. Just like any other sector, you've got to be careful with gold miners, VERY careful. So yeah, when people blindly say that a sector is "dogshit"...that leads to inefficiency. That is the way you make market beating returns, and that is what I am looking for.

Hey all: It appears that the drop in CMCL was them being de-listed from the Canadian exchange at the end of trading Friday. Thus, it is likely forced selling by Canadians and their funds. There was a tweet from Mark Learmonth that operations were proceeding as normal, no news as to why the price was dropping. So those that had the fortitude to buy yesterday are reaping the rewards today.

Wanna bet that there are going to be lawsuits over this when the "traders" lose all their money? If the kid wins, so much the better....if the kid loses, sue Robinhood. They should not have allowed a minor to be making trades! A no lose proposition!

OK: SPTN reports earnings today. Please see: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spartannash-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-200500356.html Earnings were strong, coming in at an adjusted rate of $.67/share for the quarter. They massively paid down debt, about $90mm. Generated about $123mm from operating activities. Outlook for 2020 has been raised. This why I thought SPTN was a superior investment choice vs. VLGEA way back when. The stock price has gone up a little bit too.

Today's brief can easily be written remotely. But how does a law firm develop tomorrow's partners, i.e., business generators? I've seen this and been involved with it first hand... Some of the more nimble & "forward thinking" law firms are "in shoring" from Boston, NYC, LA & SF to say Detroit. Specifically, they are moving low-end, low value work to a Detroit location. In Detroit, you've got mail, power, interweb, and most other modern amenities. You've also got VERY cheap office space, and most importantly of all, you've got hordes of desperate attorneys who are willing to work for $20 to $25 an hour reviewing & sorting & doing basic prep work on large cases. You've got plenty of people fresh out of law skool, desperate to bring in some money, but you've also got seasoned attorneys from firms that disbanded after GFC. You've also got attorneys downsized from government, all types. Some of these cases that get farmed out will literally have MILLIONS of documents that need to be sorted & analyzed and have grunt work done. Perfect for the Detroit attorney! Detroit is not the only place, Chicago, Charlotte, Houston, Atlanta are other hot spots. The high end work still gets done in NYC, along with client meetings (most of the time), and the partners and people on partner track. So shrink down NYC 75%, keep the high end there, but move out most everything that can be done elsewhere. This has been going on for the better part of a decade though. I think it will continue to accelerate and why not spread to other sectors of the economy? what you say is accurate, but this takes it one step forward. contract work for doc review and discovery searches are being "offshored" at cheap rates to contract attorneys hired on a deal/case basis, but this new twist would have the important work done by all attorneys be done remotely...until there is a need to meet in person over something...this is happening now due to covid and there is no reason that wont continue imo yes, I forgot to mention that most work is now being done remotely. I'm not sure how long that will last? There are some clients that are NOTORIOUS about security. Of course, it depends on the client and the firm. In the past, remote work was rather rare...now it is rather common. With the remote work, I would imagine you've got all sorts of potential problems, security & confidentiality being near the top of the list....then you've got technical problems....then you've got group dynamics and cohesiveness. When I was working projects, the first few days were critical, as attorneys would discuss different theories, different things that they were seeing, and would try to act in a synchronized fashion. Then you would have the group interfacing with the partner on conference calls. I guess some of this could be done with dispersed work groups, but I would think that quality and efficiency would take a hit to some degree. Pre-covid, there were some attorneys who were REAL germophobes. There would always be Lysol wipes & dis-infectant. Some of the women were really particular about this as we had shared workstations. If those people were antsy about germs before all this happened, I can't imagine what they are like now. I think we will know a lot more in a few months, if this is permanent, or if people start going back to offices. with encryption, I dont see security being an issue. management will have to be more alert though. it cant look at card reader reports anymore for associates etc leaving the office at 11pm... High level encryption is certainly a must for remote legal work...but there are a myriad of OTHER security problems besides just the encryption issue. One of the primary problems is potential waiver of attorney-client privilege if other people see/overhear legal matters being discussed. For example, does the Amazon echo (other devices) waive attorney-client privilege? What about spouse/children/significant other? In a strict office setting, this can be controlled to a great degree. With a remote worker gang, that becomes more problematic.

Today's brief can easily be written remotely. But how does a law firm develop tomorrow's partners, i.e., business generators? I've seen this and been involved with it first hand... Some of the more nimble & "forward thinking" law firms are "in shoring" from Boston, NYC, LA & SF to say Detroit. Specifically, they are moving low-end, low value work to a Detroit location. In Detroit, you've got mail, power, interweb, and most other modern amenities. You've also got VERY cheap office space, and most importantly of all, you've got hordes of desperate attorneys who are willing to work for $20 to $25 an hour reviewing & sorting & doing basic prep work on large cases. You've got plenty of people fresh out of law skool, desperate to bring in some money, but you've also got seasoned attorneys from firms that disbanded after GFC. You've also got attorneys downsized from government, all types. Some of these cases that get farmed out will literally have MILLIONS of documents that need to be sorted & analyzed and have grunt work done. Perfect for the Detroit attorney! Detroit is not the only place, Chicago, Charlotte, Houston, Atlanta are other hot spots. The high end work still gets done in NYC, along with client meetings (most of the time), and the partners and people on partner track. So shrink down NYC 75%, keep the high end there, but move out most everything that can be done elsewhere. This has been going on for the better part of a decade though. I think it will continue to accelerate and why not spread to other sectors of the economy? what you say is accurate, but this takes it one step forward. contract work for doc review and discovery searches are being "offshored" at cheap rates to contract attorneys hired on a deal/case basis, but this new twist would have the important work done by all attorneys be done remotely...until there is a need to meet in person over something...this is happening now due to covid and there is no reason that wont continue imo yes, I forgot to mention that most work is now being done remotely. I'm not sure how long that will last? There are some clients that are NOTORIOUS about security. Of course, it depends on the client and the firm. In the past, remote work was rather rare...now it is rather common. With the remote work, I would imagine you've got all sorts of potential problems, security & confidentiality being near the top of the list....then you've got technical problems....then you've got group dynamics and cohesiveness. When I was working projects, the first few days were critical, as attorneys would discuss different theories, different things that they were seeing, and would try to act in a synchronized fashion. Then you would have the group interfacing with the partner on conference calls. I guess some of this could be done with dispersed work groups, but I would think that quality and efficiency would take a hit to some degree. Pre-covid, there were some attorneys who were REAL germophobes. There would always be Lysol wipes & dis-infectant. Some of the women were really particular about this as we had shared workstations. If those people were antsy about germs before all this happened, I can't imagine what they are like now. I think we will know a lot more in a few months, if this is permanent, or if people start going back to offices.

I've been watching this stock for quite a while. It is higher on the "watch list" than it was...but I still have not pulled the trigger. They took over Kona Grill, and they seemed to have gotten for a good price and were doing a good job of righting the ship and integrating it. Then the Wuhan virus hit.... I think they are going to pull through...but am not 100% sure. They have a lot of business in NYC and Vegas. Those locations are going to be hit and hit hard. Then you've got the problem of declining interest both here and in general of small cap stocks. Most people are just interested in discussing TSLA and such.

Today's brief can easily be written remotely. But how does a law firm develop tomorrow's partners, i.e., business generators? I've seen this and been involved with it first hand... Some of the more nimble & "forward thinking" law firms are "in shoring" from Boston, NYC, LA & SF to say Detroit. Specifically, they are moving low-end, low value work to a Detroit location. In Detroit, you've got mail, power, interweb, and most other modern amenities. You've also got VERY cheap office space, and most importantly of all, you've got hordes of desperate attorneys who are willing to work for $20 to $25 an hour reviewing & sorting & doing basic prep work on large cases. You've got plenty of people fresh out of law skool, desperate to bring in some money, but you've also got seasoned attorneys from firms that disbanded after GFC. You've also got attorneys downsized from government, all types. Some of these cases that get farmed out will literally have MILLIONS of documents that need to be sorted & analyzed and have grunt work done. Perfect for the Detroit attorney! Detroit is not the only place, Chicago, Charlotte, Houston, Atlanta are other hot spots. The high end work still gets done in NYC, along with client meetings (most of the time), and the partners and people on partner track. So shrink down NYC 75%, keep the high end there, but move out most everything that can be done elsewhere. This has been going on for the better part of a decade though. I think it will continue to accelerate and why not spread to other sectors of the economy?