abitofvalue

for all the complaining about it being cheap.. management is voting with their wallets by selling shares. maybe market views it like insiders? https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/l/insider-activity

Yes. Everything is negotiable right now. and being willing to cancel is a powerful motivator. Have found asking when my contract is up in response to no discount does wonders. Esp in cases where there is 'no contract' and a competitor exists. its like calling your cable company and asking for a discount or something.. usually you get it. we managed to do this for a couple of diff things we get billed monthly on.. hr/payroll software and our IT services guy..

Are you saying PMI doesnt touch Fannie and Freddie loans? cause if so, thats just wrong. Fannie/Freddie loans make up 95%+ of their books. Edited. Meant to say FHFA and VA as I believe these authorities provide there own insurance/guarantee. yes that is right. In addition to PMIERs - which is a real almost existential problem.. and 70% discount (similar to hurricanes) may or may not be enough depending on DQ levels, the other issue is just income statement dynamics.. the companies will need to provision for DQs and higher claims.. which will drive up loss ratios. I dont know that the market is prepared for 100%+ loss rates. LT you may be right (prob are) that claims wont cause similar pain as 2007/8 when half the industry went effectively bankrupt... You are still going to be saddled with excess reserves, lower origination volume etc. You have to also include risk of dilutive capital raises... if you like MIs not sure NMIH is best positioned.. arguably ESNT which has scale and clean books is better. If you truly are confident on claims.. MTG/RDN are already at .4-.5 BV offering interesting value.

Are you saying PMI doesnt touch Fannie and Freddie loans? cause if so, thats just wrong. Fannie/Freddie loans make up 95%+ of their books.

so roughly 100x in a matter of weeks. Nuts.. makes up for some of the Valeant losses. he is an intersting one - gets 100x on this, like mult-100x on GGP and then does Target / Valeant / JCP.. .

NMIH probably insures only Fannie / Freddie loans. highly highly doubt they are doing much in the non-agency private space given its a tiny portion of the market anyway.

to be fair - historically they have dealt with downturns by taking price and rapidly gaining share as other lenders pull back. still could see some volatility near-term. IIRC foss had started a business that was competing with CACC and it led to board disagreements.. so he left under a bit of cloud and suddenly. the longer and lengthier loans are a concern and was in response to the market.. but yes it did lower returns on their business.

they stopped buying because of the govt order not because of some risk discipline.. they are continuing to operate in parts of the country that dont have a stay at home order. dont think it should make one feel better about their discipline at all.. if anything the fact that it took a govt stay at home order (meaning there is going to be very very limited activity as it is) for them to stop could be a sign that they are not self-discilplined will be left holding bad inventory if the real estate situation rapidly turns in the future or ever....

in a 'normal' environment, their default rate is like 50%. what's it going to be in this backdrop... who knows. CECL accounting could also matter here. Overall, they should do better than other auto lenders given their better cash-flow model and the ridiculous (imo) rates they charge (+ ruthlessness in repo / wage garnishment + regulatory capture in Mi). but valuation has been an issue for a long time. I think i saw some insider buying though..

Does anyone know who this is - ". For example, the contract for one of our 10 largest clients, representing approximately 3% of our consolidated revenue for the year ended December 31, 2019, is effective through September 2020 and is not expected to renew" I suspect that more will go this way espicially as SYF signals it is increasingly willing to work with smaller retailers. Andretta has the right idea but investing in digital capabilities will take time and will be a competitive disadvantage vs SYF, Citi etc. till the catch-up. The lowering of guidance from mid-teens sustainable growth to single digits is a pretty good indicator that they know they signed some uneconomic deals in the past and cant keep doing that. Imo - the notion that those guys dont do 'small' retailers will prove to be a fiction promoted by Ed & co. Andretta already hinted that ADS will need to compete on speed, flexibility.. All that said yes its cheap. the question is what can it get back to? Its just a mono-line consumer financial company except its subscale, has more subprime, mixed management (lets give Andretta benefit of dount) etc.. so put a 7-10x multiple on GAAP earnings and that's a 'fair value.' but with losses likely heading higher (bye-bye 6% guidance) and receivables growth remaining pressured..

Probably a combination. Tim is an idiot, but he should know he'll be gone sooner rather than later if he fumbles one more time. Capital structure looks fine, Air Miles and Brand Loyalty could probably take out almost all corporate debt if they wanted to - or buy back half the Company at these levels. You think they can get $2.8B for LoyaltyOne? or am i misinterpreting? They are obviously trying to sell it based on their actions and comments.. but if not successful it seems like a major write-down will be necessary.. (non-cash but further lowering equity).. heck if as i suspect they are going to get a crap valuation for it a writedown will be necessary even if they succeed. Isnt the fed cut going to make them guidedown? It did last year and they said they had again NOT contemplated lower rates in guidance. though they were overly conservative this year.. still as CFO all Tim has done is raise guidance once then buyback shares then guidedown, then issue low 2020 guidance and now he will guidedown again.. Ralph seems legit and the stock is cheap but a 100-day listening tour seems incredibly tone deaf given what is going-on. I suspect he will need to clean house.. he already hinted that he has identified gaps that need to be fixes. that Horn not Ralph appears to be managing the Loyaltyone process is baffling!!

Anyone know which contract this one is? " the contract for one of our 10 largest clients, representing approximately 3% of our consolidated revenue for the year ended December 31, 2019, is effective through September 2020 and is not expected to renew." Assume its already in their held-for-sale..

but they would also acquire $$$$$ of consumer loans and see their valuation get re-rated to crappy consumer fin valuations. i agree DFS could be an interesting acquisition but other than a SYF type merger of equals dont see how/why it would be a target.. international networks looks for US presence would find it interesting but i doubt it would get regulatory approval. the big issue is their network is prob their most interesting asset (for a tech company)..but it has almost 100% of earnings from the lending business. no tech company wants to deal with Fed regulation.. better to partner with an issuer and let them deal with that..

They sent out a revised update because of a typo: delinquent receivables were actually 1,012,305 and not 1,102,305. thanks.. what a clown show.

Can someone help me square the math on their October DQ rate... I am getting much higher numbers (6.5%) than their reported DQ rate of 5.9%. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1101215/000110121519000229/exhibit_99-1.htm Assuming there is no reporting or calc error, which cant be ruled out with them, is there some weird active receivable adjustment i am missing.. 6.5 vs 5.9% is a world of a difference.