krazeenyc

thepupil and BG2008 -- are you sure you guys are not multi accounting! lol Are you the same person?

very interesting idea for this nyc resident.

all this shit is scary as hell https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-infection-may-cause-lasting-220307511.html

reinfection? relapse? a bit scary.... https://www.yahoo.com/news/recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-161747102.html

California coast not nearly as dense as NYC. According to the NYT, the the majority of New York cases are European in origin. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html Keep and open mind.

Assuming we mostly get out of this mess in < 6 months. Employers will realize -- mass working at home ... DOES NOT WORK. Educators will realize -- virtual education... IS TERRIBLE. Companies will deleverage, and people will be hermits, save, live healthier, etc. for a while..... UNTIL.. they don't. Then people will smoke, drink, travel, and live their lives. And executives in charge will be greedy again and do more stock buybacks to maximize their compensation and bonuses. I think one of the few lasting changes from this tragedy will be that SOME small percentage of people learn better hygiene habits and stick to it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-landlord-mario-salerno.html Landlord waives april rent for all his tenants!

You have a point. But in downtown Toronto specifically, which i was alluding to, it's just not the kind of market where someone with no buffer would own and rent. The market is just too expensive for lots of bad credit amateurs to be involved. The market has moved up strongly last several years so most unit owners would have plenty of equity to borrow against. Most responsible owners already have home equity lines set. There will definitely be downward pressure on rents and market values, but i don't see mass distressed selling or the banks tanking over real estate and liquidating. The premise is not that individual owners of apartments are they themselves turning their units into airbnbs. The premise is 10 different individual owners are renting their units out long term to one airbnb "entrepeneur" ... who is in turn using airbnb as a platform to turn the 10 apartments into a mini-unlicensed "hotel" -- albeit at different physical addresses. Asset light!

Thousands of condos in Toronto were being rented out short term on sites like Airbnb, especially downtown where there is lack of hotels. All those rentals are basically dead now, and I suspect even after the lock downs are lifted tourism will be down for a while. It will be interesting to see how many of those condo owners can survive a downturn and if the high RE prices can be sustained. I suspect many of the airbnb hosts will switch their units to long-term rental. This will bring down rents in the downtown core but why would they not survive? now...those that had a "business" of signing 12-month leases just to turn around and throw it up on airbnb...those guys are gonna get smoked. You are assuming they are well capitalized enough to pay rent on their units for 3-6 months? of rent on all their units without any income from the units... I think the premise is these folks are undercapitalized, but I could definitely be wrong.

plenty of asian people touch their face too.. i think the biggest benefit of society wearing masks is it both helps to keep the wearer more safe (to an extent), but it also helps the wearer spread the virus less. I think the combination of the 2 seems to make a big difference.

The Gates Foundation has been woking on infectious diseases around the world for more than a decade. Just read their annual reports. There are probably very few people with his combination of real world experience and knowledge of infectious diseases. He will be on a cnn tonite at 8 pm with Dr Fauci. Viking's sarcasm went "whoosh" for this crowd... ::) LOL.

This contradicts China data. If disease is highly contagious and impossible to contain, then there should be the same amount of deaths in all provinces rather than being superconcentrated in Wuhan. Not so contagious it is impossible to contain, but watch the video above to see the kind of actions China has taken to contain it. are we going to do that here in the United States (or something even remotely similar?) -- should we? Just because they were able to get it under control with their actions, doesn't mean we will with ours.

Heart Breaking...this is in New York City. https://www.nytimes.com/video/nyregion/100000007052136/coronavirus-elmhurst-hospital-queens.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR17nh2pwePfc9hEWBwvb8PIvPnv4vsLPJkIak29itO2R-PnVqvd1Jx8IRo It seems that a huge part of the reason the death rate is so high in the elderly in Italy is that so many people (young and old) are sick and the health care system is so overwhelmed that they need to prioritize patients.. So people who would otherwise have lived, are dying. Yes, young people are not dying at a high rate, but they ARE getting sick and they are taking up resources and stretching them very thin. Yes, shut it down, so our doctors, nurses, and hospitals have a chance. So people who get sick of something else have a chance.

Yeah, but there are new cases in Japan. Just few. So they have virus inside the island. And with very little testing going on it should be superspread. Unless they somehow are really lucky to get every single person early on. I spent 2 weeks in Japan in the middle of February. I think their numbers are almost certainly artificially low for lack of testing... but it's way different than it was here. While they didn't cut off flights from china, here are some factors i think contribute to there being a slower rate of spread there: 1) Government preparedness Every building in Tokyo and Kyoto that i visited had gallons and gallons of alcohol hand sanitizer. Everywhere I went they warned of the Coronavirus and to take precautions. The warning about the virus were everywhere from on the trains to the metro, to the airport. Schools closed much earlier than here. For employees who could work at home, that started earlier than here. they had screening at the airport, when I returned to JFK we did not. 2) Cultural Differences. it seems that in Taiwan and Japan, the spread of the common flu was already declining -- leading one to think people are already aware of not spreading their germs. People, generally speaking, seem more willing to sacrifice for the whole... and seem to accept recommendations from the government. masks - while they may not keep from getting the virus, if a big % of the population is wearing them, those who are sick are likely to spread it to less people. Also, I think when your friend mentioned people taking off masks and touching their face, etc. i noticed that a lot too... but i think that's due to our paranoia... and being very aware of who's doing what!

If real estate overall is going to 10% cap rate, every single bank and insurance company is going to be broke, FNME and FRE will have trillion Trillion $ holes and everyone with a mortgage currently will be deep underwater. Right... isn't that why these names are getting punished -- because of this possibility -- given the massive unknown here? (I'm a buyer at these levels and higher too) but why is it "impossible" NYC cap rates to reach 10% or even 12%! They've been there before... and can get there again. It's certainly not the base case, but it's not unprecedented.