james22

Big day.

Annual oil extraction CapEx is ~$600 million short. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/20/the-looming-oil-shock/

[Tepper] said that the day Exxon added activist investors to its board was the day to buy oil stocks. He said the addition signaled that drilling "will eventually decrease over time" and supply will follow. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/david-tepper-says-oil-stocks-are-cheapest-equities-every-measure

Yeah, Vanguard has poor timing. They've done this before with VGPMX, selling at the bottom and missing the rally. So much for Bogle's advice to "stay the course." But the Utility component is party what makes VGELX interesting to me. That much more diverse. Vanguard's Energy Index ETF/Fund would probably make for a better Energy bet. But active management might better take advantage of the ESG issue?

ESG investing has had a profound effect on the financial activities of energy companies. By driving down equity prices and raising bond yields, ESG investors have sharply raised the cost of capital for these firms, making it difficult for them to operate. The good news? This is being done by the private sector and is a reflection of market discipline, rather than by some top-down ukase by the federal government, although that may be coming soon. The energy companies that survive will be well-positioned to take advantage of a bull market. Add inflation to that bull market, and energy will be just one of the big beneficiaries. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/antisocial I've been out for some time, but just got back in (VGELX).

But there might be a brief window to buy or sell immediately after the decision.

I'm not one to get into the politics of things. Rather, my job is to examine the world and figure out how to profit off human stupidity. https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2021/06/02/esg-energy-stops-growing/

Opinions on Mon and Thurs next week.

Same here. Initially 10% back in early 2019, half that now. Think of doubling bet again as we seem so close, but my faith in the Rule of Law has been sorely tested of late.

Elusive.

Looks like we might get a SCOTUS ruling 10am ET tomorrow. *fingers crossed*

Berkowitz went into these lawsuits hearing that it was going to be a brutal fight but even he underestimated how bad it would be: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417293-tim-pagliara-stands-tall-gse-shareholder-golden-era Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus, Rule of Law...

Value is where you find it. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/something-of-value.pdf

It wasn't ~45% off its high then.

Added. Now a 6% position. I'll take it 10% with additional confirmation.