gjangal

I am a big fan of the business duopoly ( who is not?) and own both MA and V. There has been quite a bit of run up in these names for the last few years. They may bounce at these levels for a couple more years before growth/ capital return makes them look cheap again

I don’t think they are rational, but some of them are worth the lofty multiples, but it’s not easy to know which ones. High tides lifts all boats kind of situation

From the S-1, growth appears to be stalling, number of customer adds are slowing. Market is reacting to this. They probably have pricing and increasing usage levers to pull, but that goes only so far. Looks like an avoid to me

In my view, it’s a just a proxy for maintenance capex. This can be used to figure out incremental capital invested in the business and what kind of return are they getting for this incremental invested capital. It’s not very useful nowadays if a lot of the investments are funneled through the income statement rather than capital expenditure

Lots of integrations already pre built. Might have changed now in AD single sign on. Admin functionality, audit trail and metric tracking are better in Okta. In a nutshell more feature rich than AD single sign on and also first mover advantage

Or just buy a slow and steady low risk widows and orphans stock like Amazon. :) Vinod Good one, got a chuckle out of it. In the SAAS era, AMZN is truly a widows and orphans stock :).

If you want to take FOMO out of your system, How about putting in some play money. Nothing like it to solve FOMO

Top pick in the space with little to no competition. But valuations looks really stretched , even for SAAS companies

PAYX I am still going through the numbers, they still have low double digit growth, good roic and looks like they are using their balance sheet well, cons are obviously they are skewed towards small and medium sized businesses which are going to take a hit. Maybe stock already reflects that. I do a general check of numbers and take a judgement call as to whether the business can maintain competitive position, market opportunity. .Growth/fall in revenue usually reflects that. Asset light business models are very attractive . I also willingly will pay up to 40 pe for good growing businesses in this rate env

Looking to buy ANET, PAYX, BKNG. Haven’t sold anything yet, but I feel this is going to prolong for a while, so buying slowly and in small quantities .Especially valuations may not return to where they were as markets have to price in second wave and 3rd wave scenarios in the absence of a vaccine. Good time for people with substantial cash as they can accumulate slowly SQ and TTD look risky to me as small businesses and ad budgets return slowly. Better to buy stronger players. Thinking about that

And I should add very low investment need for future growth if the duopoly persists

No analysis to add , but a 75% drop on my purchase price in 3 weeks ( which I thought was low) makes me want to puke when I see this name

Where are you getting the forward earnings #? Is that consensus earnings? Your estimate of future earnings? Analyst estimates for 2021 before this corona virus situation. In my view next year earnings may be impaired but earning power is not. Betting this will be the first ones to recover when things go back to normal. I see this and MA as a royalty on GDP and Inflation. Terminal growth is nominal GDP + any pricing power they may want to exert

Buying V at a forward pe of 20. For all those who have been waiting for V , this looks like a good chance. Once the case curve flattens, economic activity should return to normal slowly. Given where rates are , this seems like an good price for a good company

The government should come out and send checks to everyone ( at least low wage / gig workers / need based ) . After all that’s what they are doing for the rich people who own assets in terms of QE and lowering interest rates. Small businesses and honest hard working people who serve the community and are not able to do so now because of an act of god shouldn’t suffer