adesigar

I’m not sure Bill Gates would care about the Nobel Peace Prize. It would be much easier and cheaper for him to start a ‘Gates Prize’. Personally the Nobel prizes, especially the Peace prize are a total joke. I have no idea why anyone cares about them.

I think he was referring to St Joe

I am mostly fine with the new site. I do wish that the design was changed to remove so much empty space. Simple tweaks like decreasing the profile image size and reducing the post header and footer size would really help in my opinion.

My issue is this doesn't adjust for the fact that corporate tax rates were 35% for 7 of the last 10 years and then 21% for 3 years (of which 2020 was one). If I normalize for 21% tax rate CAPE is closer to 31% which is still quite high but interest rates are going to be low till 2023. I am in 20% cash but will sell more if S&P crosses 4500 this year.

??? The article is from 2017 and expects autonomous trucks to be commercially available in 5 years. So by next year? I don't see this happening till we get much closer to Autonomous Driving level 5 and we are currently not even at level 3. Elon Musk keeps making promises on autonomous driving and not delivering on them, its always "3-6 months away". It may take a decade or 2 after that for the transition.

My takeaway from the letter was he feels Berkshire is misunderstood/ignored and because of that it is undervalued so he is doing share buybacks. 1. Stock holdings earning don't come out on Berkshire Income statements. 2. BRK has been unfairly applied a Conglomerate discount. 3. BNSF Value as much as AAPL stock, Insurance value significantly higher. 4. Investors focused on coastal tech/finance and paying crazy valuations while ignoring/avoiding middle America and the boring businesses which BRK holds a lot of. 5. BHE is similar to BNSF from 10 years ago. It will pay out a lot 10 years from now when it done and will be almost impossible to compete against and this value is ignored. He had an indirect reference to GME. Berkshire has the ultimate group of shareholders with ?? :D

Taxes

Hoping for another quarter with a decent amount of share buyback. I would expect comments on the pandemic, state of the economy, overpriced markets so not making any deals, inflation. Credit to whoever convinced Buffett to buy AAPL.

Thanks

He's a billionaire, clearly. “Most of my coins” Implying at least three. If so congrats rk Yes more than three, but much less than a billion dollars worth. I was buying at $200-$500 and not buying more than I did is by far the biggest mistake of my life. At least you did buy some. I saw it when it was around $10 but didn’t buy any because new kid, death in the family etc. It was a crazy time. I almost bought $5k worth at that time but didn’t. I probably wouldn’t have held to $50k per Bitcoin anyways.

That's the exact question I have been asking myself. I moved to 20% cash middle of last year which now seems like a bad move since the market just kept going higher. I keep reading about the Buffett indicator being at record highs (194% or something) but the Fed keeps buying and is at approx. 8T, the 2017 Tax Cuts are not accounted for in the indicator and the GDP is temporarily affected by COVID. Maybe its 1999.

You also have to consider that the US government has said they will be sending out $1400 and possibly giving $3000+ per child in the next year. For a family of 4 that could be 1400x4=5600 + 6000 = $11,600. Fed has said it wont raise rates till 2023. That could keep the market going into next year.

Short interest in GME dropped from 120% to 40% from Jan 15 to Jan 29. Short interest dropped across the board in most stocks.

I hold JOE through FAIRX. I hope Bruce Berkowitz is selling or hedging some JOE in FAIRX.

GME $800 calls expiring on Friday now has 20,000 open interest. Volume is 12,000. The stock is at $100. This is insane. Is someone really expecting it to go to 800 in 2 days?