I have been buying more. Here are my quick notes.
Stock is down ~50% since high in Oct. (but that high was a quick ramp).
Stock is at the same price ($5.34) that DJCO (Munger) purchased last year - who arguably knows a lot about this investment.
Financials currently aren’t great (possibly misunderstood by the market) because of
* subsidy changes on electric vehicles earlier this year.. But that is temporary and going to reverse and is already reversing.
* Skyrail projects not completing in 2018 - waiting on approval from central government.
Creating a moat as the low cost producer.
Optionality
* Skyrail (Monorail) business is new and could be very large
* CATL just had an IPO and BYD is pretty much the same capacity. BYD is now less in market value than CATL and you get all of the other stuff (outside of battery making) for free. BYD said they are opening up the battery business to others… Also just announced they are the biggest battery capacity in the world.
* NEV credit system could bring in a bunch of cash. (selling excess credits)
* World wide expansion continues (India, Europe, USA, Canada, Brazil, etc...). They have spent a ton of money expanding.
* Manufacturing of EVs like cell phones are made… It is opening up its powertrain and car electronics for outside use. DiLink could open this up to other manufacturing that don’t have this skillset. Deal with Changan (10 GWh battery factory) could be the model of the future.
* Wang Chuanfu envisions 1 trillion yuan revenue by 2025 which is ~10 times last years revenue.
* Huge opportunity to recycle / reuse batteries from buses, trucks, etc...
* 52 year old founder that is one of the best entrepreneurs with a long runway in front of him.
- Nice diversity across business lines
* Consumer cars
* Buses, Trucks, Forklifts, etc..
* Energy Storage
* PV
* Electronics business