Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well?
3,000 to 15,000 deaths is an estimate over the course of the entire pandemic. Ontario model estimates that it may last up to 2 years (multiple waves).
Do you have Hubei estimate for the entire pandemic? What is their estimate for the pandemic duration?
I agree with you that Ontario is not managing all that well. However, you don't need to spin the numbers to make your case.
Sorry, not trying to spin #s. I was just looking at slide 13 and it says over course of pandemic, doesn't list any assumptions. No idea about Hubei #s. Officially ~3000 deaths and pandemic basically over. Estimates over 10x those #s, who knows. Keep in mind there's 4x the population of Ontario and higher density.
Also, Ontario currently has more deaths than Quebec but only half the # of cases?
1. Yeah, the slides don't show the expected duration. They discussed it in today's briefing. They expect 18-24 months for the full pandemic.
2. No one believes Chinese stats. You can easily make a case that Ontario is not doing well without invoking bogus Chinese numbers.
3. There is no way that Hubei pandemic is over. They will have multiple waves just like everyone else.
4. Ontario is under-testing compared to Quebec by a factor of ~3x. See this:
He is professor of epidemiology at UofT.