cameronfen

At some point shorts are going to make money and market seems to be reversing, but I question the risk management abilities of a fund trying to short a meme stock and publishing it for all to see. I haven’t seen those reports, so maybe short interest is low, but I feel like you are just asking for trouble.

Interesting, but I see that their slowest half year of revenue growth over the past 3 years was 25.1%, H2 2019. So how did you get 10-15%? You have to back out teerepublic acquisition is my guess.

IIRC their growth was slowing to around 10-15% and it seemed to me like they acquired teepublic at a decently high multiple which I though was a move to hide their declining growth/generate growth inorganically, which was when I sold (bad decision obviously). Then COVID happened and growth accelerated again. This is all based on memory when I last owned it so ymmv.

I think (but could be wrong) Shinoken is transitioning from larger project condos to smaller project apartment buildings on it’s balance sheet especially looking over the long term. Much of their debt is construction loans backed by the inventory building in progress. As the rate they turn inventory increases (as they work more and more with smaller construction projects) they need less debt. That’s at least management’s explanation for this I think.

There is not much value in full dna or exome health panel for general population. In-fact, one could argue its negative value. I will do a thought experiment here. Let's make reasonable assumption that a fraction of US adult population falls under "worried well" category - people who subscribe to certain diet plans (weight watchers - WW) or buy multi-vitamins / protein shakes (GNC) to improve their health or feel better. There is a market for that. Here is the catch though. For a given person trying out these things these are almost always positive benefits (in best case) or no benefit (in worst case) situation. Now think about people going and getting entire exome/ dna sequenced. What kind of information will they get? They will almost always get information that is reflecting of mutations in their dna/genes. So what is the significance of this information? In overwhelming cases the answer is we don't know. In a very small subset of cases it has highly negative feeling, even though the clinical consequences may be nothing (e.g: say there is a mutation in the gene BRCA implicated in breast cancer - the science suggests that most of the mutations in that gene are harmless and only some are meaningful and even then they increase your risk from say 0.1% to 1% or something like that). There is almost no situation I know of where such information is positive (e.g: it is impossible to say - you will live for 120 years or you will be resistant to Alzheimer for a set of mutations) So now we have a product that does not give out feel good information in any case, mostly gives out information that even doctors/scientists don't know what the significance is and in worst case makes people unnecessarily worried or does harm. Imagine someone acting on a false positive BRCA information and getting mastectomy. That is not a consumer product. It is a diagnostic test that is carefully administered in the presence of other information such as family history of a disease or clinical symptoms. That is why FDA closely monitors such products and in the past a cease / desist letter to 23andMe long time back (https://law.stanford.edu/2013/11/25/lawandbiosciences-2013-11-25-the-fda-drops-an-anvil-on-23andme-now-what/) Fair enough, but shouldn’t that be an argument for educating people in something like genetic literacy. I get why it should be restricted at this point, but it would be somewhat beneficial (depending on costs) to know my entire exome sequence so when new research comes out I don’t have to get another part of my dna sequenced if I’m worried about that. Moving further in the realm of what the FDA is worried about but also something educated people could benefit from, you can send people (or maybe just their doctors) updates when certain sequences come up in research. Could that result in people doing something stupid? Yeah. But would it be helpful for people that know what they are doing? Hugely.

There was a VC that lamented missing out on PDD because he thought BABA/taobao would eat it's lunch. He realized that tier-1/tier-2 cities have much different habits than tier-3/tier-4 cities where PDD thrives. Perhaps a starting point for your DD if you can find who said that and the rest of his thinking. It’s worth noting that my aunts/uncles/cousins are mainly in Shanghai and Hong Kong, and apparently it’s all the rage in those places too.

I would never short this Sometimes the best moats are the simplest The fact that zoom just works is plenty a moat compared to their brain dead competitors They have excellent product market fit and this could go way higher I have used Zoom and other products both at work and for fun for remote meetings and what exactly is the difference? They all work. They say there is less of a latency problem on zoom especially compared to BlueJeans and Teams. I’ve noticed it but maybe it was because I was primed to.

^ the data is 2020 Q2.

^yea that seems interesting. I don’t want to give the impression that I investigated this company thoroughly. I was intrigued so I looked up the market share information and reported that back as I felt like that was adding something to the conversation. Not an expert, but I do imagine much of emerging market Internet services are under earning in terms of ads etc since you still are in the consolidation and establishing market share stage of growth. I think the consequence is they will be under earning for a long time (as they should) as they are trying to increase share. These are just my thoughts, could be wrong of course.

My understanding is that the non paying accounts also have little ad rev too. Though I should add that I have a small speculative position here too. Sure but that’s immaterial. I don’t even think it’s necessarily a bad investment, I just think better to buy market leaders if your looking for compounders at higher valuations. I didn’t look at the valuation, but could be decent value.

The correct thing for me to do is to apologize for accusing you of pumping the stock, which I am doing here. I apologize for implying you were doing anything untoward. However, the original point that you took so much offense too, I’ve corroborated multiple times and I don’t understand why you would send me a PM telling me not to continuing participating on a public thread and posting faulty information, especially because you couldn’t contradict my evidence.

There’s also plenty of evidence has Netflix prime and Disney hotstar are the dominant players in India: https://qz.com/india/1897888/netflix-amazon-beat-disney-hotstar-amid-india-covid-19-lockdown/amp/ (And look their data is exactly the same as statista from a different source (albeit probably ultimately the same source). Are they both wrong?). Now it looks like Eros has a decent number of non-paying accounts (129m) but they have only about 30m paying subscribers. Potentially also with a lower price as they target tier 2,3 cities, I fail to see why those numbers don’t imply there share is somewhere around 4% or lower considering the size of the Indian market.

I mean I don’t want to get into an argument maybe it’s a legit pitch, but there’s no need to go into my pm’s to shut down opinions you don’t want to hear. Btw, statista is legit enough that many businesses pay for access to their data.

Honestly I think he’s pumping the stock as he sent me a personal message asking me to not comment anymore because my research was “faulty”. (Which is fine if true but he’s welcome to provide reasons here).

According to the statista I linked to you, Eros has less than a 4% market share as they are not shown. Even if all the dominant foreign firms are kicked out of the market there are 4 or 5 local OTT shown that have more market share and likely significantly more as I Eros MS not shown. Regardless of the size of their library, if they don’t have customers what good does that do. They could have the long tail of really mediocre content.