Aberhound

Watch Celsius Network as they have promised this feature in 2021. I have been using Celsius to fund the kids university with good result. You can open multiple amounts and the trust came from a will so should be valid tax wise. You can easily borrow at low rates so you can better time the tax events or use leverage. Interest rates are far better than outside crypto thanks to the much faster velocity of money allowing the team to earn high returns to pay the high rates. They are profitable and use no leverage so I consider it safer than any institution using leverage as we approach the Minsky moment.

Did any other board members get into CEL tokens this year? In March I realized that the impact of Covid would cause a financial debt crisis then a Monetary system crisis as massive debts would be added and GDP would contract in an already over indebted economy. As Hayek says governments will have a choice of a severe downturn or collapsing the monetary system. So I asked myself, as people increasingly lose confidence where in a fiat system would they feel safe holding their wealth? Eventually confidence in central banks and governments will collapse triggering the crises. Anyone using leverage will suffer. I discovered Celsius Network run by Alex Mashinsky. He has created a company designed to replace banks. They pay 80% of revenues to depositors. Assets have grown over 7 fold this year to from $450M to $3.3B. As the assets have grown they become increasingly profitable as the same number of people can earn more in the business of secured lending of assets. They are the ones lending BTC to many institutions for arbitrage etc.. Celsius uses no leverage so will be a major beneficiary of the collapse in confidence. Most of the value accrues to CEL token holders although shareholders benefit indirectly by holding almost half of the CEL tokens. Anyone invested has made 10 to 40 fold returns this year. Next year likely will be significantly better as you have the 4 year BTC cycle summer period overlaid on a company growing rapidly and starting to rise up the early adopter phase. It will be interesting to see the two cycles overlay in BTC winter. Which will predominate? Celsius Network constantly buys CEL tokens to pay the weekly interest due to depositors. They buy most dips which has prevented whale attack price manipulation. Celsius is in the early adopter phase of the S curve of technological adoption with 93,694 active wallets. Celsius publishes most pertinent data, much of it real time and has been increasing transparency. Their business model is simple and has been fully explained and only slightly varied. Alex explains it as "doing well by doing well for others" which is very close to Adam Smith's "invisible hand". Capitalism would have much broader support if more CEOs emulate Alex Mashinsky. Alex teaches prudent saving in his weekly AMAs. Anyone following his advice will no longer be poor no matter whether they can save $10 or $10,000. 93% of Celsians HODL their CEL due to strong incentives. If you earn in CEL and include compound gains your returns are 30 to 60% APR on crypto deposits during BTC spring and summer. In BTC winter probably switch to stablecoins including stablecoin gold where you can earn 4 to 5% interest on gold deposits. The have paid $161 million in interest on crypto deposits and no one is close. They are already big enough that they already have the first mover advantage locked in where they get the best deals with the least risk. By the end of next year they likely will be the biggest BTC miners in the US. For most people holding assets with Celsius is likely much safer for themselves and their heirs than holding the assets themselves in hardware wallets. For those who believe that "no key means no crypto" ask yourself if the returns are sufficient to offset the risk of someone else holding your key and what will happen if you die? At least with Celsius your executor can retrieve your deposits with a copy of the will, a death certificate and depending on jurisdiction probate, much like bank deposits. The Celsius approach is what will bring millions into cryptocurrencies which is one of Alex's goals. He is one of the best CEOs who I predict will be the fastest to create a trillion dollar increase in value for investors and depositors.

I did not see this option on the owners manual and I remember we used to be able to order the street form of certificates. This would be a great service for Berkshire to offer to better protect us all from derivative and other risks arising from leverage used by brokerages. I want to own shares directly on the company's share register without any middle man. I do not want to own any shares held at brokerages while we await the monetary crisis combined with a financial crisis as central banks transition to central bank digital currencies. Has anyone done this or do many have the same thoughts?

I suggest he comes forward with a convertible preferred share deal for Boeing as he wears the flag. Meanwhile he tells the government that the financing is conditional on letting Boeing use its Ion engines. It is a good time to crush your competitors.

Good video on the potential of Tesla insurance:

Won't Amazon benefit more from home shopping? You have to work out a system to decontaminate parcels. Costco shoppers currently seems to have a higher infection risk. Both companies will have supply chain problems. I wonder which is more resilient to those problems? I would guess Amazon due to the greater buying power. I think US will solve the problem so both will do well longer term while I suspect Costco will have excess profits short term due to this stocking then a drought due to the contagion risk and supply problems then profits again when the problem is fixed. So likely Costco will have a better buying opportunity say next fall's flu season. Perhaps Costco could sell some new remedies such as Brown's gas machines for breathing, water structuring units which produces highly ionized water, infared saunas UV 270 nm LED light units and infrared saunas. All increase cell voltage so the body heals and resists disease. Sick customers don't buy at Costco so why not keep them healthy? This type of thinking and initiative is why I think US will solve the problem.

Ionized water as coronavirus is a water borne disease and I like to keep my cell voltage high by staying hydrated and energized. Pretty good for cancer prevention I suspect as well. If I get infected I have my anti-virals ready namely chaga tea and rosemary tincture. Rosemary has a compound which is #3 on the list of 32,000 most effective anti-virals. Perhaps you should all be making rosemary and chaga tinctures with your beverates of choice which will be the modern version of nordic snaps. For instance you might add liquorice root, a great coronavirus antiviral, to make it tastier. Perhaps use this swedish recipe with some additions then come up with a recipe which is both effective and tasty: "In neighboring Sweden, snaps can be made from either aquavit or vodka and infused with a variety of herbs, spices and botanicals—fennel, cardamom, anise, caraway and coriander being the most common—or even fruits and berries."

Oh great. Now Jon Rappaport looks at the tests for the so-called coronavirus and finds them problematic. "Reading through CDC literature, I believe the two most prevalent US testing methods are: antibody, and PCR. Antibody tests are notorious for cross-reactions. This means factors in no way relevant to a given virus can make the test read positive. In that case, the patient would be falsely told he "has the coronavirus." But it gets worse. Traditionally, antibody tests reading positive were taken as a good sign for the patient: his immune system had contacted a germ and defeated it. Then, starting in 1984, the science was turned upside down: a positive test was, astoundingly, taken to mean the patient was ill or would soon become ill. The PCR test (which requires excellent technicians who will not make any number of possible mistakes) takes a tissue sample from a patient which might contain a tiny virus particle(s) much too small to be observed---and blows it up many times, so it can be seen. However, the test says nothing reliable about HOW MUCH virus is in the patient's body. Why is that important? Because millions and millions of replicating virus in the body are necessary to even begin talking about actual illness. A positive PCR test, nevertheless, will be taken to mean the patient "has the epidemic disease." ---An even deeper issue: where is the PRIOR PROOF that the PCR is testing for a virus that actually causes disease?"

I suggest everyone listen carefully to the arguments of the founder of Celsius Network. He has lots of interviews and every one I listened to was interesting. He is the guy that launched VOIP and now he wants to do the same for banking. One point that struck me as being a critical insight was his statement that if you want crypto to rise in value, you have to move your money from JP Morgan to our bank. As he explains, at JP Morgan they are making money on your money so you get the risk and they get the profits. Everyone is doing this so the 0.01% get most of the wealth with all its implications for society. But if the masses go with Celsius Network and unbank themselves, then 80% of the profit earned from them holding your money at your risk goes back to the average guy who deposits his nickels. Consequently his nickels will turn into dollars as crypto by restricted supply has to rise in value to match adoption and the wealth of society becomes far more equal. Civil war or socialist revolution or worse are avoided. He is right of course. If you doubt that the money system is the cause of all wars and all ills in society read the short 46 page booklet by Ezra Pound, one of the best writers in the English language, about Roosevelt and the cause of WW2. The cause he ways is what he calls our Usurocracy. You can find it for free download on archive.org. I downloaded it and sent it to my kindle. This founder is a genius. To me it seems that the founder created Celsius Network for this purpose. He seems motivated, selfless and sincere. If this rings true for others then soon it will be a movement. As soon as people get this simple argument there are going to be a lot of people acting like all those Tesla owners that want everyone else to buy Teslas to save the world. Celsius Network may prove to be the "killer app" like "Word" and "Excel" were the killer apps which made the personal computer what it is today.

Also positive today while GLD and 10-year treasury are down. Could it simply be that Bitcoin is simply in an uptrend and not have anything to do with Coronavirus or Iranian tensions? On this note, Bitcoin obviously didn't behave much like the other safe Haven's through 2018 either. I think it's a mistake to think of it as akin to holding gold or treasuries. With those you expect NEGATIVE correlation with equities in a downturn. Rather, I'd expect Bitcoin's correlation with equities AND safe haven assets to be fairly close to zero in both healthy and unhealthy economic environments. BTC and the rest are up for 3 reasons. First it is a safe haven asset now like Treasuries going up during uncertainty. Just look at the track record. Second, it is now possible that coronavirus will end globalization and migration will end even internal migration. Who will use bills if the virus survives on surfaces for 9 days. Who will go into public? Yes the sun will save us this year as it cuts virus survival dramatically. But will we have summer flu considering the outbreaks in tropical places? (Although many Chinese people avoid the sun). EU is already incredibly weak and now this? Sovereign default, bank failures and bail-ins cannot be ruled out. It does not matter if the coronavirus is a real scare. Jon Rappaport makes an interesting argument that it is another false narrative. Who knows? All I see is a madness of crowds. Animal spirits could drive crypto incredibly in this environment. Third, crypto is being accelerated by leverage and the opportunity to earn up to 10% interest yet borrow as low as 3.5%. Consider Tezos, ETH and now Litecoin. On Litecoin you can earn 10% interest. See Cred and Litecoin foundation. You can borrow with crypto security at less than 5% now. See Celsius Network. On Celsius 80% of interest paid back to lenders. Super efficient compared to banks where they pay 1% and charge you 25%. Banks cannot compete with their legacy overhead and debt loads. EU sovereign debt is double doomed now for this reason along with China's economy and migration now being frozen due to the coronavirus. Think how much EU depends on tourism. And what use is the belt and road initiative if you can hardly use it? Bail-ins will impoverish anyone who fails to get into crypto. US will boom due to capital concentration and sanity. This capital concentration in US and Canada is a glorious opportunity to borrow on real estate at low rates then invest in crypto. US and Canadian banks will do fine. So you can borrow Canadian dollars at 3% and buy Tezos, then stake and earn 6% with almost no risk as all you do is stake, for instance, on the Kraken exchange. What happens when Tezos is used to tokenize real estate and you get the liquidity of selling tokens? Mortgage risk and borrowing risk drop significantly as you could sell portions of your property in tokens. If this occurs Tezos tokens will escalate in value with demand as supply is limited and real estate becomes a liquid easily trade-able asset. Come on. Have you ever seen such an asymmetric opportunity? The implication is obvious why would you hold fiat? Dump fiat buy certain crypto, lend at up to 10% buy more. Repeat. Obviously Litecoin price will escalate as more abandon fiat and join in. With BTC you can earn almost 9% on Celsius and then use the interest tokens to pay for a loan which costs 3.5% interest (they keep the risk low by requiring security of double or four times the crypto as security with more security giving a lower rate). Say you buy Litecoin then earn 10%. Litecoin of course will go up dramatically. Finally watch ETH and DEFI. $1B loaned already. To borrow you post ETH as security. So the supply of trade-able ETH is now dropping every day and at an accelerating rate and they plan to reduce the inflation rate to zero. Consider how a whale attack will trigger the automatic sales under the smart contracts which will cause further ETH sales. So ETH price will be on an upward channel with lots of buying opportunities. This bubble is going to be way bigger than the 2017 bubble due to leverage and because it will be double propelled because of the weakening fiat. Fiat will weaken if the collapsing supply chains due to coronavirus caused cost-push inflation. What do you expect central banks to do when they are faced with banks whose interest rate derivatives too often are betting on continued low interest rates? How long before banks have to admit "mark to model" was always a phoney premise? CBs only have one tool. They will print to buy sovereign debt until Hayek's instability hypothesis comes true. Why else are all CBs now working feverishly on crypto? Perhaps when the banks collapse and the governments default they will issue sovereign crypto to restore stability. They have to allow the existing crypto system in the meantime because otherwise the collapse would be too harsh. The discrimination favouring CB crypto to take over the existing crypto infrastructure will take time so in the meantime we have an exceptional opportunity because of this black swan. Just don't forget to move your crypto profits into tangible assets before the "Empire Fights Back".

No surprise you timed it so well. I think fondly of your kind and hyper-rationale comments back in May 2006 that gave many of us including me the confidence to buy FFH options and make incredible gains. Thank you again. What a contrast to the quality of this board today when I post at the end of October my conviction that the shorts were failing to consider the disruption entailed in the recent series of positive developments and Tesla was likely entering into an exponential phase. Instead of support and discussion what I got in response was "ok Boomer". Perhaps in the future we all can realize that if we support and aid each other we will all be rewarded.

If you know what you’re doing you could always use an old Tesla battery for your house. I believe in one of the videos he mentions how much he paid for a used battery. https://www.youtube.com/user/oldmilwaukee100 A great business might be to take the old Teslas and put the battery and maybe the engine (an engineer might better say if that is possible) into a speedboat. If it was possible that would save a lot of money on gas or diesel as electric engines work efficiently at any speed while boat engines work efficiently only at one speed and therefore are inefficent at most speeds used.

Get some good olive oil and an ozone generator. Bubble the ozone into the olive oil. This seems to prevent the harshness on the lungs some people complain about. The ozone will remove the smell from the air. In Vancouver as you walked about in the past you could often smell ozone coming from garages, but almost never the cannabis grow ops. Houses are expensive in my neighbourhood. After a few weeks the olive oil looks white coloured and translucent. Put it in a jar in the fridge. It will heal almost anything on the skin thanks to the high oxygen. Anyone living in Australia can do the same and remove the smoke from the air. If you smell smoke you need more ozone. If you smell ozone or freshness you have enough. Everyone in the parts of the country with forests which might burn like the whole west coast should do the same. Further, in cities oxygen levels are too low causing illness and cancer over time.

I can't tell if you are serious or not. Is this your actual expectation for Tesla's US pickup truck market share or are you messing around? I see something and I am struggling to grasp the idea as I suspect we have the potential to buy Apple when just as the Iphone 3 came out. I remember thinking about Apple at $14, Google at $80, and Amazon at $4 and failing to press the buy button. I read Bezos' first annual report and thinking this plan was incredibly wise but I had difficulty thinking the implications through. Like then my ideas are not fully formed by I see something worth investigating. Part of my thinking is that demographically we are close to the Millennial's big spending years and I suspect millions will end up with the Tesla roofs and vehicles which vehicles are mostly shared out. I am a Boomer and I don't think like Millennials. I scrimped and saved and carefully chose assets I thought would appreciate most. They did. In contrast Millennials look at the world and they are screwed. Wage rates have not grown for 20 years and assets are all super expensive. You cannot get ahead unless you figure out how to utilize things better. Tesla soon will be offering to millennials hope by changing these two major assets into an asset that save money (the roof) or becomes an income earning appreciating assets (the million mile vehicle). Just wait until Telsa's design genius gets their hands on quantum dot glass and v4 of their roof doubles in efficiency and then v5 transform skyscrapers into energy generating towers. Now the roofs are better than a new roof. In the future will it make sense to tear down and replace buildings to convert them to them to something like the v5 which to me seems to be on their path of technology? I post the thoughts in hopes those shorting whose thinking inverts my thoughts try their best to trash these ideas. If you succeed I will be corrected and save myself a lot of money. This video well explains Tesla's design process advantage. I agree with this video that Tesla is at stage 3 of disruption of the auto industry and soon will enter stage 4: To me the stage 4 disruption is the change to thinking of your vehicle as being an income earning asset due to the usefulness of the vehicle and the potential to share the 97% or so of the vehicle hours that most people do not use. Pick ups in particular are rarely used for the work purposes they are designed for. The author of the video cites this great article on disruption and Tesla clearly is the disruptor by these tests: https://www.vox.com/2014/1/6/11622000/the-four-stages-of-disruption-2 He also cites this great article on Musk's thinking process. Both techniques are useful for any investor. https://www.independent.co.uk/business/elon-musk-uses-this-ancient-critical-thinking-strategy-to-outsmart-everybody-else-a7990601.html We think of Tesla as a car company but isn't it more accurately described as a company that is going to take the biggest sectors ie energy and vehicles and re-imagine how they will be used in society? Technology is changing and improving at incredible rate and my thesis is that this Tesla approach will create a company with moat like we rarely see. Legacy companies almost never can make the transition. The future competitor is likely to be a new entrant and that is incredibly difficult in the car business in particular. The question is are they or will they be in a position that Amazon found themselves in that Amazon was so far ahead no one will ever be able to compete with them effectively.

Great analysis, pardner. I'll eat crow here. Total company gross margin increased in a big way Q/Q -- up something like 440 basis points Q/Q despite declining auto ASPs. Analyst consensus was something like 15.6% and it came in at 18.9%. Gross margin in the energy segment went from 11.6% to 21.9% Q/Q, an improvement so large that it's baffling. Energy segment revenue was UP by over 9% Q/Q, but cost of revenue was DOWN by 3.5%. I'm not the only one wondering how gross margins turned around so quickly. JP Morgan note says they would have asked for the impact of "non-recurring items" to be quantified if given the opportunity to ask a question. Bernstein's "guesstimate" is that "one-time items could've represented a 100+ bps sequential help from Q2 to Q3." No one seems to know with any degree of certainty. I can't remember offhand if I posted here about it last year, but I was expecting Tesla Energy to see significantly improved margins sometime in 2019 because they had not one, but two pricing increases of about 8-10% between Q2 2018 and Q4 2018. Lead times for energy storage systems went out to almost 12 months at one point because of demand and the Model 3 ramp. Gigafactory can handle the volume now, but hadn't ramped up until earlier this year, so last year sounds like it was hell. Looking at the situation today, Tesla stock still "looks" overvalued, but I would never short it. I think the company made it thru its most challenging period last year and now has a lot of positive catalysts, including Chinese production, Model Y, a simplified and more popular solar product, and continue energy storage growth. I would add to the list the unveiling of the new Pickup truck in 1 month. The unveiling means deposits and I suspect the specs will cause the deposits to be double or triple or more than the Model 3 deposits based on the massive sales of pick up trucks in the US and the apparent quality of the new product. Of course we won't know for a month but there is information sufficient to come up with rational estimates. For instance it looks to me like this will solve the cash flow problems during this downturn. It should have the extended range and longer battery life and cheaper production costs from the improved battery design from the recent acquisition and the idea of making it a portable all day power supply for tools at 240V makes it incredibly useful same as the reputed 300,000 lb towing capability. That will haul logs I think. I want one at my lake. These might be the first specs that cause investors to realize what my brother has concluded that in a few years existing vehicles will be seen as depreciating assets while the Tesla with the 500,000 mile battery life will be seen as an appreciating asset due to the incredible usefulness and the new sharing economy. Someone should start a Tesla AirBnB. If you have a newish Ford F-150 or the like short it by selling it, buy Tesla stock and get a cheap truck while you wait and I bet you can buy two or more of these Tesla pickups when they come out in a couple years. By then the depreciation on the Fords and the like will be over $10,000 per year due to short lifespan. Watch for 25% market share in the segment instantly and growing from there. Think of the pricing power Tesla will have when shortages develop. We all need to get out our calculators and figure out what this might be worth and start assigning probabilities. I am also looking a natural gas and the companies that build natural gas generating plants as the electricity demand in the US is going to soar and natural gas is part of the supply. I am also thinking abort shorts in the Winnebego etc. gas or diesel motorhomes which get killed in downturns. I may be too late as I recall reading recently of the downturn in that sector. The new model will be towed caravans as the economics are obvious. It is way cheaper to drive these things electric and the caravan can have solar and battery banks which supplement the Tesla if the manufacturers have the skill and foresight. Think of it. You pull over and spend the night in your caravan and your solar cells will recharge the battery banks. Less range anxiety. This will increase the mobility of the poor and will be a far better option than a manufactured home in a fixed location because you can move to your job and for a handyman your job moves with the truck and your tools. The rural economy should do well over time as more supercharging stations are built and nice towns building the infrastructure will attract these people causing local booms for smart town councils. I wish the posts would focus more about the future as I find these valuation estimates very challenging as it is difficult to imagine the changes in society which soon will be possible.