jmp8822

Does anyone have any way to reconcile the accounts receivable balance? That whole saga has been interesting. The upcoming pressure to show a profit this quarter is substantial, due to possible S&P 500 inclusion. The possible fraud will be much harder to hide this quarter if TSLA prints substantially lower deliveries with better margins. I'm intrigued.

Where does everyone think this is headed? 10 or 20-percent higher with unemployment in the teens? Shiller PE at all time high with unemployment over 10 percent? It is hard to comprehend what is happening, but of course the saying goes: don't fight the Fed.

Market cannot drop! Everybody buy, buy, BUY! LOL

There is nothing new you have really said here than that not been said in 350+ pages on this topic on the board. Zero. Value it using traditional methods you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. Also, calling Tesla a metal bender gives us an idea how much of understanding or value you give to true cutting edge engineering. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. I guess your assumption would be that if we don't view it through a similar lens as yours, we might be the suckers here. Having the privilege to own a vehicle that has only improved over the years of ownership and has really required no servicing, I can attest that this is no metal bender. When it comes to engineering of a vehicle (tech design hardware/software/embedded systems and the vehicle engineering in itself), there is no comparison. None. You drive one and then sit in pimped Cadillac/Benz and that becomes a joke. I suggest you search for third party sources and hear about Tesla engineering from folks whose clients have been every auto OEM in the world. Maybe that can help you understand a bit more. You don't have to invest. You clearly seem to have a conviction this is know-nothing fad company led by a moron, this might be the best time to short it, heck Elon will lend a hand too in the next few days for short thesis!! 1. Value it using traditional methods Ok, bring it. Value it with your modern method. 2. you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. My point is not that the cars are ugly. I personally like the model 3 look. But I also like the I-Pace in some colors a lot. 3. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. WS analysts are pumping this to get the fees on the billions of capital raises. Perhaps another one coming with all the recent ridiculous upgrades during a pandemic. It goes up but that doesn't mean anything. The numbers are heavily manipulated. In 99' a lot of trash went up 1000%'s. Later a lot of it went bust. 4. Maybe you are influenced by endowment bias. To say there is no comparison on those metrics is a huge overstatement. The Porsche is pretty cool. But whatever the car is great argument is completely irrelevant. Assume I believe you and its the greatest thing since sliced bread. If you keep selling the greatest thing since sliced priced below its true cost; you are still going bust. 5. I'm shorting the hell out of it of course. The opportunity of a lifetime. You start the argument calling it a metal bender and now you say the part that proves its not a metal bender is just a great argument but not worthwhile for the discussion now pertaining to the value of the company. I don't need to convince you on what metrics you should use to evaluate this investment because your premise is that this is a giant accounting fraud and Elon is on it and pretty soon this will bust. That is no sensible way to start but I am not going to convince you to think otherwise. In fact, don't even assume in one of your cases -"what if there is no accounting fraud?" I would encourage you to make it heavy conviction short bet if you haven't already. You are rehashing a bunch of points from 100s of decks available from the shorts of the kind of Spiegel etc. and there is no convincing to be done here that you may be off. The fact that you don't know when a fraud will end, doesn't mean it's not a fraud. "The fact that you don't know when a fraud will end, doesn't mean it's not a fraud." What do you think it is a fraud????? Why does Tesla have over a billion dollars of receivables that refuse to go down? They have given reasons in the past, including 'the quarter ended on a weekend'. This quarter, when they were not making deliveries anywhere near the amount at the end of the quarter, compared to past quarters, the receivables barely budged. Why? Why does Tesla perennially have less interest income from cash on the balance sheet than treasury rates? Why are they window dressing cash every quarter, to the tune of billions of dollars? Why does Tesla always report deliveries, instead of units sold? Why would anyone ever invest their money with a CEO who committed securities fraud by tweeting out the biggest fake buyout in history?

There is nothing new you have really said here than that not been said in 350+ pages on this topic on the board. Zero. Value it using traditional methods you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. Also, calling Tesla a metal bender gives us an idea how much of understanding or value you give to true cutting edge engineering. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. I guess your assumption would be that if we don't view it through a similar lens as yours, we might be the suckers here. Having the privilege to own a vehicle that has only improved over the years of ownership and has really required no servicing, I can attest that this is no metal bender. When it comes to engineering of a vehicle (tech design hardware/software/embedded systems and the vehicle engineering in itself), there is no comparison. None. You drive one and then sit in pimped Cadillac/Benz and that becomes a joke. I suggest you search for third party sources and hear about Tesla engineering from folks whose clients have been every auto OEM in the world. Maybe that can help you understand a bit more. You don't have to invest. You clearly seem to have a conviction this is know-nothing fad company led by a moron, this might be the best time to short it, heck Elon will lend a hand too in the next few days for short thesis!! 1. Value it using traditional methods Ok, bring it. Value it with your modern method. 2. you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. My point is not that the cars are ugly. I personally like the model 3 look. But I also like the I-Pace in some colors a lot. 3. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. WS analysts are pumping this to get the fees on the billions of capital raises. Perhaps another one coming with all the recent ridiculous upgrades during a pandemic. It goes up but that doesn't mean anything. The numbers are heavily manipulated. In 99' a lot of trash went up 1000%'s. Later a lot of it went bust. 4. Maybe you are influenced by endowment bias. To say there is no comparison on those metrics is a huge overstatement. The Porsche is pretty cool. But whatever the car is great argument is completely irrelevant. Assume I believe you and its the greatest thing since sliced bread. If you keep selling the greatest thing since sliced priced below its true cost; you are still going bust. 5. I'm shorting the hell out of it of course. The opportunity of a lifetime. You start the argument calling it a metal bender and now you say the part that proves its not a metal bender is just a great argument but not worthwhile for the discussion now pertaining to the value of the company. I don't need to convince you on what metrics you should use to evaluate this investment because your premise is that this is a giant accounting fraud and Elon is on it and pretty soon this will bust. That is no sensible way to start but I am not going to convince you to think otherwise. In fact, don't even assume in one of your cases -"what if there is no accounting fraud?" I would encourage you to make it heavy conviction short bet if you haven't already. You are rehashing a bunch of points from 100s of decks available from the shorts of the kind of Spiegel etc. and there is no convincing to be done here that you may be off. The fact that you don't know when a fraud will end, doesn't mean it's not a fraud.

I think you underestimate Musk's accomplishments. Starting a car company and rocket company are not easy feats. Now try doing them simultaneously. Oh, and the cars are EVs which haven't really ever been tried at scale. Oh, and the rockets land themselves on a drone ship floating in the ocean... There's been a lot of capital wasted in the auto industry. I don't think Tesla is the worst offender (by far). Look at GM and F which just 12 years later are at existential risk (again) despite selling multiples more volume and having more resources than Tesla. Elon Musk doing something that is difficult has nothing to do with what Tesla the company is worth. Tesla is a mediocre/bad company in a mediocre/bad industry. Pull back the fleece from your eyes and you'll see a car company trading at a ridiculous valuation, which would have gone bankrupt many times over if it wasn't able to raise public equity on many occasions, totaling billions and billions of dollars. I'm pretty sure it's not a mediocre/bad company (though it is in a mediocre/bad industry) and I'm pretty sure I'm not the one with fleece over my eyes (though I do agree with Musk--the stock price is kinda high). But to each his own. If you think it is not a bad/mediocre business, you must think it is a good or great company then? Which other good/great companies do you know of that have had to raise public equity multiple times to avoid going bankrupt/running out of cash?

I think you underestimate Musk's accomplishments. Starting a car company and rocket company are not easy feats. Now try doing them simultaneously. Oh, and the cars are EVs which haven't really ever been tried at scale. Oh, and the rockets land themselves on a drone ship floating in the ocean... There's been a lot of capital wasted in the auto industry. I don't think Tesla is the worst offender (by far). Look at GM and F which just 12 years later are at existential risk (again) despite selling multiples more volume and having more resources than Tesla. Elon Musk doing something that is difficult has nothing to do with what Tesla the company is worth. Tesla is a mediocre/bad company in a mediocre/bad industry. Pull back the fleece from your eyes and you'll see a car company trading at a ridiculous valuation, which would have gone bankrupt many times over if it wasn't able to raise public equity on many occasions, totaling billions and billions of dollars.

He tweets that the stock price is too high when it's at a price level a lot of retail investors bought his stock in a secondary offering less than 3 months ago. Must be the drugs talking. Given all the activity this AM, most likely the account is hacked. What planet are we living on where the current long thesis says, 'it can't be this bad, I'm sure something is up, his account must have been hacked'. So will you sell when you find out his account wasn't hacked? Do you realize this same individual tweeted out the biggest fake buyout in history?

Does anyone think that WTI futures will go negative again - this time on the June contract? Why or why not?

Does anyone want to speculate on how many bankruptcies this will cause in the oil sector? I'm trying to process through the probabilities of a handful of bankruptcies and dozens and dozens of bankruptcies. More specifically, I'm trying to solve how much midstream players will be effected and how many bankruptcies that could lead to in midstream.

I'm not an expert at all, but my understanding when I was reading about it: you do need to move there physically, like LC posted. I was thinking of moving my fund management company and my family there to enjoy the effectively zero tax rate on income and capital gains. If I was single I'd probably do it - family makes it tougher.

If you've noticed I'm not waiting while there's a basket of opportunities. When Park Hotels was @$4, AerCap @$10, AEO @$6, RCL @ $20, etc. My cash went from 40% to 10% in a span of three hours - as a result the lost gains I had from not investing my entire portfolio for the last year and a half was paid back and then some. To cherry pick from your post, I was looking at both PK at $4 and RCL at $20 and am not sure why they aren't zeros if this continues for 12 months. Do you think cruise occupancy is going up anytime soon? Do you think travel will be back anytime soon? I was having trouble discounting the unknown of the virus in relation to travel. In a normal recession, hotels and cruises get hammered, and this could be the worst one they've ever had. Just wondering if you had a thesis on those industries specifically.

Look at the differences between 'clean' and 'dirty' tankers. STNG moves 'clean' product like distillate, gasoline, etc. FRO, DHT, EURN would be known as 'dirty' tankers which move crude and unrefined product. The thesis is basically on storage right now. The long end of the curve is higher than the short end on crude oil futures. This helps put a floor under spot rates for moving crude/storing crude. The question is how long will the contango in the curve last. I have my doubts and am not as bullish as some. If you can capture the one time pop strong enough it will work, but the math isn't totally a slam dunk in my opinion. Basically, in today's market I think you could find other things that might go up more than tankers, even though there probably isn't much downside from here.

He did not say you should go to work if you are sick. Please stop posting your political views in every thread - it is annoying.

I was convinced, after analyzing the financials, before the most recent capital raise, that it was over. The money was gone and they were not going to make payroll. Then at the 11th hour Elon raised his cash and there was no longer immediate collapse on the horizon. The problem with shorting Tesla is there is not a good reason for it to go down if they have cash. Every logical reason for the valuation to go down has already happened. Horrible losses, horrible product issues, criminal acts from the CEO - none have had a long-term effect on the stock. Once the SEC and DOJ have decided to apparently do nothing, why would the stock go down? The people that own it clearly don't care what a stock should be worth.