DanielGMask

I totally agree with this statement.

I also think he is more bearish than usual. I’ll add that he stated that it’s a mistake to see the 125B in cash as 40% of funds, since even though we have 180B invested in public entities, there’s more invested in wholly owned businesses.

‘Trolls World Tour’ Breaks Digital Records and Charts a New Path for Hollywood In three weeks of digital release, ‘Trolls’ sequel has made more money for Universal Pictures than original did during five months in theaters “Universal’s plans to continue experimenting with digital releases drew the ire of the world’s largest exhibitor, AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. In an open letter Tuesday evening in response to Mr. Shell’s comments in The Wall Street Journal, AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron said his chain would refuse to book any of the studio’s movies as long as it pursues such releases.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/trolls-world-tour-breaks-digital-records-and-charts-a-new-path-for-hollywood-11588066202

Seems dangerous! I live in Mexico and we are about to elect a new president and part of congress. The candidate that’s leading (by a lot!) is clearly socialist and against market systems. This doesn’t mean that if he wins he is going to nationalize private companies or move against industry, nor that congress will approve such decisions, but he may control an important part of congress and indeed make some moves against free markets. The peso is reflecting some of these fears and if I were to bet (I’m not), I would bet against the peso! I base my investment decisions on facts, not on news or emotions. But hey, that makes a market. Maybe i am wrong. Currency speculation is precisely that, speculation. And facts tend to be deceiving when dealing in an speculating environment, but seems you are comfortable and convinced of what you are doing. I was just trying to point you in the direction of some “facts” you consider news or emotions, so be my guest! Still think the Mexican peso was undervalued?

Thanks for such a good explanation.

I certainly don't think so! A 9.5% equivalent to yearly interest rate is very high for current market rates. Plus the fact that -as I understand- the Holders have the right to receive dividends as if their preferreds were already converted into common. I'm not familiar with preferred offerings and that is why I asked a few questions, unfortunately nobody answered them.

CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory) just entered into a Subscription Agreement to sell 200,000 shares of Series A Convertible Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share, for an aggregate purchase price of $200 million. The preferreds have the right to receive dividends at a 9.5% annual rate. The Holders are also entitled to participate in dividends declared or paid on the Common Stock on an as-converted basis. And each Holder will have the right, at its option, to convert its Convertible Preferred Stock, in whole or in part, into fully paid and non-assessable shares of Common Stock at a conversion price equal to $22.23 per share. Here is the link to the filing: http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000887596/87d4687b-c18d-4743-b570-64048d3fa2c7.pdf So, I have a few questions since I'm not familiar with preferred offerings. 1. This will be equal to borrowing money at a 9.5% interest rate. Why issuing preferred shares instead of borrowing? 2. This "The Holders are also entitled to participate in dividends declared or paid on the Common Stock on an as-converted basis." means that the Holders have the right to receive their 9.5% interest plus dividends as a common shareholder? 3. How does the conversion works? They are issuing 200,000 preferred shares ($1,000 dollars per preferred) for 200 million dollars. The conversion price is $22.23. Does that means that the result of 200 million divided by $22.23 is the number of common they'll get? 4. If they pay the principal amount for the preferreds the conversion expires or no matter what, the Holders have the right to convert? Thx in advance.

The only question that matters here is "what is your timeframe"? I agree, my time frame is 10+ years on DIS. I had an average cost of $100.77 & had trimmed around 25% last year at $141. 07 & then repurchased at exactly $80 the same number of shares that I'd previously sold & if it goes to $80 again I'll add more. I agree.

I think the free cash flow here is just mythical. Also, you have to think about what happens over the next 6 months, how quickly do studios start to bring back their big movies and risk low attendance. Black Widow, Mulan, when do these return, 2021? Important to look at that downside scenario but there are two sides to the story. Maybe: When this thing is lifted people are going to be screaming to get back out to do things. $12 cinema ticket is about the cheapest thing you can do besides for the $ menu at MCDS. People will go back to the movies. Don’t tell me you don’t want to watch live action Mulan as soon as possible. Going back to comments about studios going direct, we don’t know the full economics of it - theater is 50-60% GM with no overhead and huge global reach, Disney+ seems like there’s no distribution cost and high margin but they’re carrying overhead on app, marketing etc, and it doesn’t have the same global reach yet (not arguing it won’t one day) - even if it has 50m subscribers, there’s probably 4bn people out there that can get to a movie theater in 30 mins, you’re just gonna throw that target market out? Then you’ll argue that people have been laid off don’t have the money. If the stimulus gets out people are going to be richer than ever. $1200 cash check, state unemployment ranges anywhere from $300-$700 per week federal is providing $600 per week - people aren’t gonna wanna go back to work, heck I might lay myself off for that. I know this is tongue in cheek but the reality is no one knows. We can all argue one side or the other. Make it a 5% position and forget about it. keep buying BRK and then go for a walk with your family. I'm not familiar with this company but consider this industry to be at severe risk. This pandemia is going to change our psyche in a lot of ways, I don't see myself visiting a movie theater any time soon and I do enjoy going to the movies and used to go at least twice a month. Getting back to life as usual is going to take some time, maybe more than a year if a vaccine is not widely available anytime soon. An enclosed space where you have to sit for a couple of hours with dozens or hundreds of people is not an ideal space for a world where there's a more than usual lethal virus for which we don't have a vaccine.

I don’t get why people like Lagavulin. I had one bottle. My friend said it tastes like old socks. Lol I do like it and drink it often, though my drink of choice is JW Blue label.

Avg daily volume is 80M+ on the As and 800M on the Bs. Why would you call?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/technology/facebook-andrew-bosworth-memo.html

With gusto!

Current price is about 35 times earnings and cash flow. Net debt is around 3 times net earnings!

Attached! Baupost_2019_Letter.pdf