whatdadil9

any thoughts on this one? see that ADW Capital recently took a stake here.

What happened to him? I heard he’s having a pretty good 2020 and Bloomberg is reporting ~150 mm doesn’t include pinks, foreigns, options/swaps, cash or shorts FWIW.

Yes. the Company put up solid financial results and a strategic alternatives with the most reputable name in building products banking.. Does this make any sense? Their stone business is 75 pct repair and remodel and is a site,wso, pool comp... and basically covers the EV and then some.. RDS should be comped to IBP / BLD which are taking out new 52 wk highs... Does this make sense to anyone here?

Presenting at LD micro.. .seems promising. There is a webcast... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/idw-media-present-9th-annual-162500122.html Also, another big comic book deal...its valuable... https://variety.com/2019/film/global/steven-paul-buys-atlas-comics-paramount-production-deal-1203216889/ Not sure the angle to sell here.. Down from 50.00 and strategic value of content never been higher..

SAAS gross margin is not 25 percent. Second of all. Onboards were slowed down because they needed to some replatforming to scale up --- happens in SAAS all the time. Company has made it clear growth will re accelerate. Pricing will happen.. Also believe Raising prices on core customers will happen too. Think steady state operating margin assumptions are wrong and this makes more sense to DCF longer term. TAAM, Penetration, steady state margin, dicsount back.

If you subscribed to the rights offering arent you implicitly buying more? I think the fact Howard is CEO and JPM took the mandate are both wildly bullish...JPM time is valuable/money. Why would they take this mandate for a fishing expedition? Content is super valuable and only getting more valuable... See Hulu , Disney +, Amazon, etc.

4m shares traded in two days. Thats 4x the most ever traded in Company's history on super positive news. On 8300 locations installed and 2k ARPU that's 17mm ARR. DQ is 6k units. Its our understanding that ARPU on DQ is like 280 a month and they are giving 5k subsidies to adopt brink. Coca cola is also giving 2,500 a year for 10 years.. Pretty wild. So 3400 per year ARPU x 6k units is 20.4m SaaS right there... I think realistically this thing can be 25k restaurants installed year end 2020 at 3k ARPU.. Upside to payments. Upside to M&A. Stock flat for 9months...80mm of capital and outsider CEO too good to be true...

How do you figure? Stock is down over 50 pct? And has three big shows coming up and JPM was willing to take the mandate to sell.. IM surprised not up...

This seems like an interesting one.....super undervalued... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adw-capital-demands-public-strategic-185500739.html Last couple activist campaigns he's worked on have been pretty successful...

http://idwmediaholdings.com/investor-relations/presentations/ Check out new deck. First update in YEARS. Looks like they are committed to streamlining costs and only doing margin/licensed deals not traditional deficit financed TV. Perhaps most interesting is on slide 14. Said expecting to retain internationally recognized investment bank to explore strategic options... think Howard as CEO signals he might be going for his next StraightPath...

OK. Thats totally fair... but in fairness, dreamworks sold for 30x EBITDA and dont think they had huge library behind them. So 5x is not a huge multiple for the existing shows and the prospects of new ones. I agree with the double counting argument but you have to think about things in absolute terms and precedent transactions also. The 150 or whatever owned pieces of IP are also valuable. What about the franchise value and ability to generate more owned IP also... Perhaps thats captured in mutliple but mulitple should be higher? no?

Also, there are liscencing fees that IDW can earn if one of the studios cancels the shows. ie. they can reliscence internationallly or to someone else and get future revenues.... even with only a few seasons...

to the 1st question: I dont think NFLX owns them forever. Im sure they have some renewal rights but IDW can take them elsewhere I believe at some point. You might not capitalize those shows forever but what about the value of the content portfolio and shows in pipeline and show that can be made from owned IP. this is how it works I think....

Also we are hearing from other entertainment guys that NFLX pays 20 -30 pct margins on budget for super desirable assets.

This is a tough one. Revenues per show are very difficult to forecast b/c all shows are different production values. What we would tell you is that the three show deal with NFLX looks like all relatively big budget... I think the total number of episodes of INCREMENTAL TV (this is ex Wynonna) is 30 1 hr episodes.. All on NFLX. We estimate that the production cost of the shows is roughly 120-150mm (ex Wynonna).. at a 15 pct margin that would be 18-22.5 mm of EBITDA. The Core biz used to do 10mm of EBITDA on its own ex entertainment. I think with the new CEO and CFO (ex Timewarner SVP) Ezra Rosensaft there will be some good restructuring/optimizing plans to improve EBITDA in the publishing/brochures back up to 8-10 mm of EBITDA over time. So ~30 mm of EBITDA runrate some point in 2019 doesnt sound crazy. Bigger opty is that this wholly discounts any other TV shows getting made / picked up for direct to series commitments. Kerry Mcclucage (new CEO and existing board member) ran Paramount TV and did some of the biggest shows on TV ever.. We are told that he is very close with JJ Abrams and mentored many of Hollywood's elite. If this company could deliver 35 - 40mm of EBITDA to an acquirer today that it is very very very cheap. We think thats the PF math for a deal and with all the NFLX shows ascribing no value to any incremental new shows. We think the existing pipeline is very promising and expect new shows coming as well. These independent studios/content libraries are getting valued at enormous valuations and that is without even any track record or things on the air. Go look at Valiant Publishing/Entertainment. No publishing revenues and media and large 9 figure valuations if not 10...