Parsad

Definitely not Buffett, but I think he's as good as Weschler and Combs who will be running things. He's also got a hell of lot more runway than them. Hamblin-Watsa is as good if not better than Gaynor, and the leverage there should help. If I had to choose one, it would be Fairfax hands down...but investors will do better than the markets with any of them. Cheers!

Please don't tell me you are as stupid as Jon Stewart and think that balancing the budget equates to extinguishing the debt lol I don't think that's very fair--he did screw it up on the debate, but there is no way he actually thinks that. I think he just had an issue in the heat of the moment. Are you kidding me? Jon Stewart proved to the world just how stupid some of these talking heads are. He could not grasp the difference and was so pro Obama he refused to even listen as O'reilly tried to explain the difference. We live in very very dangerous times. The times are no more dangerous than past crises. Every decade we go through a period of peril and despair, and then the immediate gasp of relief as things bottom and economies eventually turnaround. Every 30 years, the depth of the event looks unmanageable. Every 50 years, it looks like the worst thing that ever happened. I think most people who were around during the time of Pearl Harbor thought it was the worst thing that could have ever happened. Well guess what...70 years later 9/11 came along, and everyone then thought it was the worst thing. Right now, the world is at the depths of a long economic crisis, and eventually we will all come up for air. This too shall pass! Cheers!

You are correct. Berkshire's size will prove to be a detriment. As far as price to book value goes, Berkshire's non-insurance businesses, and perhaps even their insurance business, deserves a significantly higher premium than many others, simply because they are businesses that are on top of their respective food chains. That being said, I think investors will do better long-term with Markel than Berkshire...and they will do even better with Fairfax than Markel! ;D Cheers!

Also the 'supremely insensitive to criticism' thing should be put into context: for instance, do you think Mr. Watsa could be able to invest the way he does, if he weren’t 'supremely insensitive to criticism'? 'Supremely insensitive to criticism' might mean that you have a strong reliance in your work and analysis and that you are able to back it with an iron will. And that is exactly what I look for in the people I decide to partner with. Oh, you've got it completely wrong here...completely! Prem is absolutely adamant in his investment thesis and analysis...the ideas...but he is incredibly sensitive to criticism. He deeply cares for his employees, shareholders, board of directors, associates, colleagues and even those who simply write to him. In fact, it was because shareholders weren't getting adequate information during 2003, that he started reading the posts by shareholders here. He takes alot of notice on things that are of particular interest to shareholders. He is lowest man on the totem pole in terms of compensation at Fairfax...whereas Biglari is by far the highest. The bulk of Prem's compensation comes from dividends he receives just like any other shareholder. He has no bonus plan, no stock options, no loans and has not changed the compensation structure since his salary increased about 8-9 years ago...or was it nearly a decade! No executive has left Fairfax other than for retirement in the last decade. Whereas how many people have fled Biglari Holdings? The way you treat your team, your shareholders and the people around you has no immediate benefit...but it shows over the long-term in standing, reputation and loyalty. Cheers!

I don't really understand the argument, taxes are only levied on profits, so by reducing your workforce/not growing, you are reducing your profits in the first place. Let's say he makes $2 in profits now, and pays $1 in taxes. He could grow it to $2.5, but now that the rate is 55% instead of 50% (random numbers) he chooses to layoff people and shrink, reducing his $2 to $1.75. Now he makes less money because of his choice rather than more money, even with the change in taxes. If his changes did not affect the $2, then why didn't he do that in the first place? Why not grow and reduce the fat? This CEO's way of growing is to take from his employees and line his pocket with it..."If taxes go up, I'm not paying more, so some of you will be going to cut costs!" That's basically his argument. If there were zero taxes, would there be zero unemployment? I've never met someone who turned away $1000 because they may have to pay $450 in tax, instead of $350, but that's this guy's logic. Go figure! Did tax rates stop Gates from building Microsoft, or Buffett from building Berkshire (please don't bring up float and deferred taxes, because Berkshire pays a ton of taxes regardless)? Yes, exactly. He saves his own ass under the "largesse" of Obama, but hey that's none of your damn business! ;D Cheers!

This is a known risk that everyone has talked about for a while now. That's why DELL is shifting from EUC to ES&S, of course. Ok, let me break it down then: Txlaw,, this is the link you posted on the other Dell thread: http://www.pcworld.com/article/2010574/michael-dell-on-surface-tablet-the-impact-will-be-limited.html Thanks for trying to pull a gotcha by referencing something in another thread that's taken out of context. I appreciate that. ;) In response to shalab's post, I was referring to the more general risk that MSFT starts to be "more like Apple" and bundle hardware and software together for all of its products, thereby cutting out OEMs altogether. Note, however, that in a subsequent post, I specifically stated that I suspect MSFT will be more friend than foe to a DELL. Surface by itself is not a thread to a DELL or HPQ or IBM because it is intended to spur adoption of the Windows ecosystem, which at the moment still relies on OEMs. Surface is the high end Win 8 device intended for consumers who actually want to also get stuff done (iPad doesn't cut it). Surface may or may not be included as part of business packages -- it may be that businesses buy both lower end Win 8 tablets and Surface devices depending on the applications. But when it comes to BYOD for non-smart phones (yes, ValueInv, it's true), we might start to see consumers latching onto Surface, which could help protect MSFT's share of business computing from the Apple onslaught. That's not a bad thing for OEMs. Btw, that Dell interview isn't really focused on Surface. In fact, Surface is mentioned once in the interview. I have no control over the title of the article. The more interesting and useful takeaway from the article that I was intending for people to get was Dell's focus on transformation and adaptation. Folks, take a look at the actual post I made and the sections of the interview I highlighted if you don't believe me: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/for-you-believers-in-dell/msg87166/#msg87166 Also, if anyone is interested on a good discussion that VAL and I had about MSFT Surface, see http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/msft-rim-and-the-enterprise-%28and-intel%29/ . We talk about INTC, ARM, thin clients, Android, and more. Ok, let me break it down for you: Michael Dell: PCW: Microsoft is getting into the computer hardware business via its Surface tablets. Is this good or bad for OEMs in general, and what's your take on the impact of Microsoft's hardware aspirations on Dell specifically? Dell: I think the impact will be limited, given the number of units they expect to ship. Microsoft developed the product largely as a reference architecture—to set a baseline for Windows 8 user experience. We’re aligning a significant portion of our product development with Windows 8, and we think it offers some great, new capabilities. Anything Microsoft does to support faster Windows 8 adoption is fine by Dell. However, our focus is less on their plans and more on designing and delivering compelling Dell products and solutions. Steve Ballmer This is a significant shift, both in what we do and how we see ourselves — as a devices and services company So do I need to point out the disconnect? You do realize that Windows relationship with it's PC developers is symbiotic...unlike Apple where they retain full control of their OS and develop their own PC's. It's why there is a twenty-fold difference in the number of Windows PC's and Apple Macs sold. If Microsoft tries to cut out the likes of Dell, HP, IBM, etc, what do you think that will do to that ratio? Apple's sales of Macs will continue to increase, simply because more consumers will want uniformity across their various platforms (phone, tablet, pc and television). But Microsoft will only help Apple grow faster if they undermine their relationships with PC manufacturers...and thus my comment of an idiot running Microsoft for the last seven years! Cheers!

Although, you've got to love this quote: "It was a stupid error, but it wasn't going to sink our ship," he said. "Only when I come to Washington do people act like making a mistake should never happen. Of course it happens." Cheers!

What a hypocritical jerk and blowhard! Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceo-workers-youll-likely-fired-131640914.html

Barron's - "Investors Underestimate Enterprise Prospects, Says UBS" http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/10/10/dell-investors-underestimate-enterprise-prospects-says-ubs/?mod=yahoobarrons

Bit off-topic but... why is Ballmer looking at Apple? MSFT isn't Apple in terms of being visionary, innovative, ... Does anyone really have faith that Ballmer will have great success in selling hardware? He refers to xbox but that is a total dud profitwise. The turkey spends all of his time talking about how Microsoft is better than Apple, and then suddenly admits that they were so far behind...is this guy really the one you want leading the company forward? Yes he's bought alot of shares, increased cash flows, income, revenues, etc. But was that Ballmer or was that just Microsoft's enormous moat...and yes, an idiot has been running the company for the last 7 years. Cheers!

New prototype walk-up, drive-thru stores. I've always been fascinated by Starbucks and Shultz...it's one of the few businesses that boggle the mind...led by a relentless, passionate CEO that continually evolves the brand. I remember years back, Buffett discussing at an AGM on how coffee on a per capita basis had been decreasing for the last 40 years, yet Starbucks was somehow growing 15-20% a year. Just another great American business story! Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/an-experimental-new-starbucks-store--tiny--portable--and-hyper-local.html

To sum up, everything being equal, if WFC was being sold at the same valuation levels as say BAC, I'd be all over it. I think it's a great bank. I think they have a polished image that in some respects is well deserved and in other respects is part of a good PR machine. I think that some of their good fortune is due to excellent management and some is due to being lucky to miss out on certain things. I think that there are a number of people who believe that WFC is a superior bank investment because it has the Buffett imprimatur. As I said, good bank, not good valuation. There are tons of banks that perhaps aren't of the same quality but selling for fractions of WFC. Banks that will be increasing by multiples, not percentages. What's the best that happens with WFC? It grows along with the economy and perhaps gets a little multiple expansion. Nothing wrong with that, I just think there's better out there. I agree with that, and I think you could say the same thing about US Bank too. Excellent banks, but their valuations are at a premium to their peers...deservedly so at this point in time. It also doesn't mean that they won't maintain relatively high valuations for some time relative to their peers. They avoided alot of the mess and are expanding when their peers are shrinking. We own both BAC and WFC...the only banks we've ever owned...and we own a hell of a lot more BAC. Cheers!

It probably does still exist to a degree. People don't change their stripes. But you are discussing two issues...one of meeting analyst estimates by 1-2 cents a quarter and the other is insider trading. I like neither! But what does that have to do with the remaining cash flow at the company, or the fact that they sell products and have been increasing margins? If the culture still existed, how would we even know? It would make a big difference because the thesis for Dell rests on management's promises and Michael Dell's reputation (certainly not their track record). If you can't trust either, then the thesis collapses. It would make no difference to the thesis at all. Do you invest based on management or valuation? We invest primarily on valuation, and if good management comes with it, then that's icing on the cake. The margin of safety we apply takes into consideration that an idiot may actually be running the company. Cheers! So what is the assumption in the "idiot running the company scenario"? What will the ES&S revenues be three years from now? What will the margins be 3 years from now? You'll have to work that one out on your own. Mohnish once told me that the reason my fund was so small was because I gave away all the answers on here. I haven't learned any better. Cheers!

But he raises good points. I mean, owning over 17% of a company's stock is a pretty good reason to get a board seat.... Yes, I would have to agree. He does douchy things, but he's correct here. They should have corrected the credentials, and he should get a board seat. But the problem is...you give him one seat, and that's it...he's going to eventually whittle away the board and take over the company. It'll be called "Cracker Biglari" shortly thereafter. ;D Cheers!

It probably does still exist to a degree. People don't change their stripes. But you are discussing two issues...one of meeting analyst estimates by 1-2 cents a quarter and the other is insider trading. I like neither! But what does that have to do with the remaining cash flow at the company, or the fact that they sell products and have been increasing margins? If the culture still existed, how would we even know? It would make a big difference because the thesis for Dell rests on management's promises and Michael Dell's reputation (certainly not their track record). If you can't trust either, then the thesis collapses. It would make no difference to the thesis at all. Do you invest based on management or valuation? We invest primarily on valuation, and if good management comes with it, then that's icing on the cake. The margin of safety we apply takes into consideration that an idiot may actually be running the company. Cheers!

Jefferies 10-Q is out. Cheers! http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1084580/000119312512418709/d386929d10q.htm

Satirical writeup by Jonathan Weil. Thanks to Alan for sending it to me! Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-04/how-to-run-your-hedge-fund-from-a-prison-cell.html?cmpid=linkedin

I'm sure more of these are going to pop up against other banks...BAC is probably next. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-09/u-s-files-civil-mortgage-fraud-suit-against-wells-fargo.html

At some point, when you get significant panic selling in the ensuing rush after a large flash crash, you will not be able to cancel all of those trades. Somebody is going to take a hit eventually (derivatives losses), and it won't be pretty. Markets in the short-term work on confidence and fear, and if you have fear for a prolonged period...such as after a flash crash were people become extremely risk averse...you could see widespread selling. Cheers!

I agree with him on both counts. Cheers!

I've been warning about this for some time, but something bad is going to happen one day from the huge amount of volume HFT's are doing...almost guaranteed to create panic selling at some point in time...and then who knows what it will trigger on the derivative side with counterparty liability. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/49333454

I believe from comments that were alluded to in previous conference calls and interviews, BAC has offered significantly less than $1B...I'm guessing probably around 250-300M. I bet they settle around 700-800M. Cheers!

The hedge fund part is cute, but they appear to be chronic liars which will get them dinged when they start looking for FT jobs on Wall Street. Are you sure about that? They may be hired just because they can do that! ;D Incidentally, I think people are being a bit too hard on these three. They are just a couple of college grads who have bought into the hype of running a hedge fund and living the high life...and definitely into their own hype. How is it any different than an aspiring broker, corporate legal beagle, or even someone aiming to be the next Justin Bieber? They will most likely fizzle out and go work for a friend of their father's, but they are probably no worse than many others trying to do the same thing. They aren't corrupt...just stupid! I think all of the negative press and notoriety is probably punishment enough for their egos. Cheers!

Yes actually! ;D I know the usual brands I buy and how many sheets are on the 12-16-24 roll packs, including double rolls and MEGA size. Softness counts in the analysis too and I prefer 2 & 3 ply. I don't separate the layers and re-roll into single rolls like some people...that would be just too crazy! :o Cheers!

+1 on this. I wonder who knew about it. I guess we will never know. This is definitely not something that would have been approved by head office in my opinion. I think it happened and then head office was left to deal with the media and consequences. Instead of blowing a milion dollars, Odyssey should have petitioned state and federal governments through education and information...someone should have taken that initiative...instead of simply throwing money at any specific political party. I would not have been happy with this whether it went to Romney or Obama. Just a waste of shareholder money and I deem it something out of the operating mandate of any corporation. Cheers!