Parsad

Parsad, check the debt load of the "PIIS". Germany has the same Debt/GDP as the rest of the Euro zone (85%) and in many respects the rest of the Euro zone is in a better position than the US or the UK on the Debt front. Let the Deutsche Mark appreciate to close the current account gap. Also, can we stop this cultural stereotype about German thrift and Spanish waste that is not reflected in the numbers? The German banks were as or more wasteful than their PIIGS counterparts. This is a sudden-stop/BOP/currency crisis not a fiscal one. You're only looking at their soverign debt to GDP. You have to also look at the amount of assets their banking system has relative to GDP, and how much of those loans are going sour relative to GDP. Germany can easily support itself. Spain, Greece, Ireland cannot...Portugal is on the cusp...and Italy and France can still keep their banks alive. If you look at all European soverign nations and their banking assets relative to GDP...I provided a slide a couple of weeks ago on here...you'll see that the remaining nations cannot support the banking system with their GDP if you exclude Germany. It isn't only the soverign debt that is pushing the PIIGS into bailouts...it's them being unable to support their banking systems and it is driving the cost of their debt up. That's why you have negative yields on 2-year German bonds. Cheers!

The Union cannot survive without Germany. The GDP of the remaining solvent nations isn't enough to support the debt load of the PIIGS. So that argument is completely moot. Germany will concede, but not without some assurances that the nations receiving extensive support will put their fiscal house in order...and it will get messy until that point arrives, where both sides finally make some concessions. Cheers!

Of course this has benefitted Germany! No one held a gun to the European soverign nation heads to form the Union. No one asked Ireland, Spain, Portugal or Greece to spend billions in excess of what could be supported by their GDP, or asked their citizens to speculate on real estate beyond their means. The Union as formed was faulty to begin with. I'm not saying that Germany shouldn't do their share now that all hell may break loose...that's automatic. But at the same time, Spain can't blame their failures on Germany. Their failures are completely their own! This is no different than real estate speculators blaming the banks for not reducing their loan values or issuing them mortgages in the first place...where is personal responsibility? There may be some culpability to look the other way, but the blame lies squarely on their own shoulders. Cheers!

I thought this quote from this article was incredulous: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/money-flies-spain-regions-pressured-180052518.html;_ylt=An2ZZTOqCT4evvkL._60xrGiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0bms2YmM3BG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDOWQ2ZmFmN2UtNzM1ZC0zYzk4LWFhM2QtNTlmYmFlYzliMTliBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2I5OWQ1N2EwLWFiNzctMTFlMS1hZTc2LTQ1OTg3MjgyNGQyNw--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3 De Guindos said that the future of the euro would be at stake in the next few weeks in Spain and Italy, adding that the rumors that Spain was negotiating financial assistance with the International Monetary Fund were "complete nonsense." "The battle of the euro is being fought right now in Spain and Italy," he said at an event in Sitges, in the north-eastern region of Catalonia. He also said Germany should help correct imbalances in the euro zone created by a loose monetary policy over the last decade and by the non-respect by Berlin of the stability and growth pact in 2003. "We need to correct decisions which favored Germany... Germany has to assume its part," he said, adding that decisions in this respect would be taken in the next few days. So you can't take care of your own fiscal house, and you think it was just Germany being Germany...it's always about her! ;D Geez, the nerve of this guy. Cheers!

I suspect at some point, you will get a coordinated effort by the ECB to stem this thing, but not without Germany on board and they probably won't get on board until the crap hits the fan and they get their agreements to their terms. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-zone-inflation-drops-15-090744272.html;_ylt=Ajporp9cBCbyNqVAemK4t8OiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0MHVhYTJ1BG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDNzBhMzY3YTEtMTZkMi0zOTI0LTk0MmYtNjZhNGI2MzgwZTc4BHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzFmMGZjY2YwLWFiNTMtMTFlMS04YTdmLWVmZTk1YzBiOTQ5NQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

Probably a good idea, and I think it may catch on with other hotel chains. Cheers! http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/31/travel/best-western-hotel-cleaning/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Forbes thinks Einhorn was making fun of Buffett. I'm no fan of Einhorn's, but I didn't think he was doing quite that. It seemed like he was applying the same analogy for cash to gold, and saying that they were similar, except gold holds its value far better. If he was taking a shot at Buffett, it would be a pretty stupid thing to do. Cheers! http://www.forbes.com/sites/ycharts/2012/05/31/einhorn-trashes-buffett-cash-but-loves-gold/?partner=yahootix

I suspect yes, but to a lesser degree. Remember, Coke is as much a distribution company, as it is a beverage company. So as long as they don't rely solely on sugary drinks to generate all their revenue, over time they will be fine if they can find replacements...be it with artificial sweeteners, water, coffee, etc. Whereas, you can't do much to change the addictive nature around tobacco and the ensuing health issues from the toxins. Cheers!

Not a whole lot. I think it's more to do with the movement in Jefferies price and then commodity prices. Right now, it seems it is moving almost directly with Jefferies. Cheers!

No! ;D We'll put it to work in a jiffy when the opportunity is right. We have been buying a couple of things, but we still have alot of cash...and we aren't suffering from the low yields, believe me! Cheers!

You knew this was coming. In our politically and environmentally over-zealous culture, you knew that soft drink companies were going to be targeted for obesity. I don't think this is an isolated incident, and you'll see more cities, municipalities, and especially school districts doing this. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nyc-proposes-ban-sale-oversize-173930533.html

+1 I expect BRK and BNSF to issue debt any day now... I mean good grief, Buffett could issue $10 Billion at hardly any cost, and turn around buy a huge slug of AIG at 1/2 IV. Long leap pos AIG Yes, I couldn't agree more! Why waste your time shorting treasuries which could remain stagnant for years, and the natural decay of any leveraged ETF will waste away your investment? You are much better off waiting and investing in companies that will take advantage of such low rates...especially those that aren't leveraged and can take on considerable debt to buy out businesses selling for cheap. These are very interesting times, but times that both recent experience and history tells us are nothing new. Cheers!

JPM is spinning out the "special investments" division. Not the source of the losses, but Dimon is taking an axe to past practices on the investment side. I think that's a good first step. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/47625053

Excellent comment! I couldn't agree more. Cheers!

;) LOL This thread is a riot. Hey, this site isn't just about making money, but how to spend it and live your life too! We seem to have one of these threads every year. I remember last year's was on groceries and people's buying habits! I believe that was the thread where Ericopoly said his wife had just choked the chicken...literally! She had broken the neck of a hen bare-handed, and that was that night's dinner! ;D Cheers!

The news gets worse and worse about what was happening at JPM under Iskil's trading. Just brutal! Shareholders should be rightly pissed about this. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-30/jpmorgan-cio-swaps-pricing-said-to-differ-from-investment-bank.html

I don't think he was taking a poke at Buffett. Just using the same analogy Buffett used for gold, he applied it to cash as well. Not terribly original, but I don't think it was a slight at Buffett. Cheers!

At the same time, RIMM acquired 17% of Nortel's patents in that sale, and those patents did sell at an average price of $750K per patent, so I think that would be the bottom. Why is that the bottom? Ok, let's not get rhetorical here. We could assume then that people might not even pay $1 a patent...would that seem reasonable to you? At the same time, we could also assume that someone might pay far more than Microsoft's $1.25M per patent price? Would that seem accurate or reasonable? All I did was use the average from the last two sales. Whether that is the price that RIMM would get we don't know, but seems a much more plausible and accurate estimate than pulling numbers out of thin air, or choosing to assume that their patents are worth far less than Nortel's or AOL's. Cheers!

Some comments by Moynihan on Europe. I like hearing the CEO say he worries about specific risks every day, and not just feed everyone a line about how strong the balance sheet is or how great their company is. In my book, you make mistakes when you stop worrying and get complacent! Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-30/bofa-sees-euro-breakup-drag-on-global-ecnonomy-as-threat.html

Which markets are you referring to? European or U.S.? I think money is flowing to the U.S., including U.S. equities and debt, so they are doing a bit better than their European and Asian counterparts. Cheers! US market. Just interesting it's holding up the way it has given the macro backdrop is arguably worse than it was last year during the big decline. There will be some correction here, but I think the world is coming to realize that the U.S. is in far better shape than virtually anywhere else...both economically and structurally. They have problems, but they have the capacity and the framework to deal with them. Europe on the other hand will only deal with their problems once the shit hits the fan...it may get messy! Cheers!

I'm basing it on the price per patent deal that Apple, Sony, Microsoft & RIMM paid for Nortel's patents ($750K each) and the price per patent that Microsoft paid for AOL's patents ($1.25M each). Yes, they may not be quite as valuable, but we have no idea until someone makes an offer. At the same time, RIMM acquired 17% of Nortel's patents in that sale, and those patents did sell at an average price of $750K per patent, so I think that would be the bottom. So doing the math...RIMM has 4,455 patents multiplied by $1M (the average of both deals)...gives us $4.455B. Thus the reason I said at $5 per share, you would have a significant margin of safety on the total enterprise's value. Cheers!

Which markets are you referring to? European or U.S.? I think money is flowing to the U.S., including U.S. equities and debt, so they are doing a bit better than their European and Asian counterparts. Cheers!

Your post is misleading and inflammatory, although probably unintentionally. Dewey was never the largest law firm, at least not in recent history. They were ONE OF THE largest law firms in the country, but have had their issues for many years. This isn't indicative of anything other than a poorly run business. They gave guaranteed contracts at too high amounts to too many people. Cash flow isn't what it was during the boom years. The business was run the same way many other things are (governments, companies, etc.) That is, there was an assumption that peak earning years would last forever and reality was quite different. But this has nothing to do with a second wave of anything. You imply that it's something new for lawyers to be laid off? Not in the least. There were huge waves of layoffs in the late 1980s/early 90s, again after the tech meltdown and once again after 2008. Law firms have become just like any other business. There is always an implication that it's unusual for law firms to lay people off, but that's just an image law firms like to portray. They ALL lay people off now and have for at least 10-20 years. It's just the better ones will do it under the rubric of performance based exits or old fashioned pressure and bad working environment. I can't stress enough that this has nothing to do with anything other than a poorly run business. It isn't representative of anything other than that. Dewey isn't the first law firm to file, although it's pretty unusual. Most law firms in deep trouble end up jettisoning a bunch of people and getting "rescued" by some other firm who really just wants a few rainmakers, but will take on some extra baggage. Yeah, I would agree with that. Dewey was poorly run, and like many firms just grew too big during the heyday. Cheers!

Ragu, you should really check the sources involved. Roddy Boyd is pushing the assertions...Sam Antar is tweeting about it (http://es.twitter.com/SamAntar/status/204359301026955264)...and tell me who is funding Boyd's blog? We saw this a couple of times before when Eavis went on his own and when Fabrice Taylor bought "Frank" magazine to turn it into an investigative magazine on Bay Street. Both tanked and went back to writing for papers, because they haven't got a clue what they are talking about, and rely on other people as sources without doing any due diligence themselves. Really, ask yourself why Boyd is writing a blog and exactly who is funding it since he's probably got less than two nickels to rub together. And why would a 2003/2004 issue be suddenly popping up on Boyd's radar screen...oh because the guys funding him are set to go to trial in September! Cheers!

Can someone enlighten me the difference between "78m global subscriber base" and "59m BBM user base"? If a subscriber is not a BBM user, what are they subscribing to? Not everyone uses BBM. So they have a total of 78m subscribers. Of that, 59m utilize BBM...meaning there is 59m users that have an inherent or intangible value...you could exploit that customer base through advertising texts, offers, service fees, etc. Thinking in those terms, that's about 4-5 times the total number of cell phone users in Canada, so you have to figure that network is worth at least $5-8B in value...another $5B minimum for the patents...another $2B for the actual corporate office, including real estate, cash & receivables, equipment, staffing, technology, etc. So a very basic sum of the parts analysis says RIMM is worth $12B-$15B. It's trading at half that, so there is some value there. Now if you assume that erosion in the core business negates the $2B value of the corporate office, since the business is dying in North America, it is still relatively cheap, and the margin only widens as it falls to $5 a share. It goes to $5, and I guarantee it will get acquired. Cheers!