Parsad

It's not as big of a problem for the U.S. They aren't beholden to other soverign nations under a unified currency. In the worst case, the U.S. can inflate their way out of this. It will be painful, but it would be fine. Spain, France, Italy cannot do this unless they leave the Eurozone and that is when the shit hits the fan if any of them do. How do you bailout Spain? What about France? Unless the Eurozone works together, they cannot solve the problem. If the cannot solve the problem due to a lack of agreement, which gets harder and harder due to political change, then the solution of last resort comes to the forefront...breakup of the Union! They only have a couple of weapons...a unanimous decision to fix their financial system...or a change to the EU Agreement on needing to have unanimous decisions. Either way, their will be fights to prevent either option, and then you could still have someone just leave the Union. This is completely uncharted waters and what happens is anyone's guess. Cheers!

I think the market is going to go for a nasty tumble, and Prem's deflation bet will eventually pan out. The world is out of bullets and Europe is devastatingly fragile. There is going to be a nasty liquidity issue in Europe and it isn't far away! I used to think that Prem was like a chess player 2-3 moves ahead of the rest of us, and Buffett was a chess player 4-6 moves ahead of everyone else. It's the other way around! Cheers! Sanjeev, Anytime someone used to bring up the fact that Prem was 100% hedged you always countered with "he is hedged b/c he is an insurance company and needs to preserve the equity position". Do you no longer believe that he is hedged solely for that reason? IMO, if Prem thought the market was as cheap as late 2008/early 2009 he would not be hedged like he is. Was his equity position not as at risk back then when he took the hedges off during that time as it is now? I thought Prem was early, and there were plenty of bullets left...now I don't think there are. Thus the fact that the hedges cost them alot of equity gains. If Europe wasn't such a mess, I would not be holding so much cash, as the U.S. has made every effort to move forward. But Europe is a different basket of nutjobs, and they don't want to work together to get themselves out of this. I still think in Prem's case, hedges are far more of a necessity due to their leverage. We have lots of cash, no hedges in the Canadian fund, and a very modest amount of hedges in the U.S. fund solely to protect the gains in BAC. Cheers!

You'd be correct if we were at the peak. We are not near the peak! It will hit 30%. Cheers!

Well, actually I think Robert Kennedy's quote applys: "Twenty percent of people are always against everything" That 20% usually f**ks up the other 80%...be it Democrat or Republican. Cheers!

My comments were in reference to macroeconomic issues...re: Uccmal and Twcowfca's comments on deflation and hedges. Prem is better at that than Buffett. I didn't say he was better than Buffett at anything else. Cheers!

Is that a relatively new line of thinking (information from the Fairfax weekend)? I don't believe BAC is hitting tangible book this year if that unfolds -- so it makes me think you've recently grown more suspicious of the market. No, I always said that BAC will hit tangible book by Christmas, barring any significant economic meltdown...see post April 10th below: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/you-know-what-to-do-but-you-have-to-wait-and-wait/msg74177/#msg74177 No, nothing to do with Fairfax or Prem. We sent out emails to our clients before the meeting saying that we were delaying our quarterly letter, because we want to incorporate all information from our dinner, the Fairfax AGM and our AGM. We also said that we were seriously concerned with what was happening in Europe. I thought Europe had the balls to face their own problems head on and throw everything but the kitchen sink at it. I was wrong, and I think they are taking too long. The longer they go, the greater the problems will be. We stated to the attendees at our dinner that Spain was facing conditions similar to the 1930's Great Depression in the United States. This is a particularly worrisome problem. We are only watching the beginning of the contraction in GDP in Spain...and then we don't know what happens after that. I don't think Europe has the firepower to handle this if they allow it to fester. You have 25% unemployment across the board in Spain, and 50% among young adults. One in 3 restaurants have closed! It's a death spiral until they get bailed out...or worse...leave the Union if they can't get the bailout! I've stated on here numerous times that we are increasing cash over the last three months. That we are close to 50% cash. Yet, I have not sold a single share of BAC or WFC. I think the United States is a safe-haven. Those stocks may get hit if the shit hits the fan, but they are well-capitalized and U.S. corporations are in good shape. But things will get volatile again, and it will be messy. Cheers!

I think the market is going to go for a nasty tumble, and Prem's deflation bet will eventually pan out. The world is out of bullets and Europe is devastatingly fragile. There is going to be a nasty liquidity issue in Europe and it isn't far away! I used to think that Prem was like a chess player 2-3 moves ahead of the rest of us, and Buffett was a chess player 4-6 moves ahead of everyone else. It's the other way around! Cheers!

Yeah, I would agree with that assessment. There is tremendous overlap in ideologies now. The Liberal party in British Columbia would have been the Conservative party 15-20 years ago. Obama is considered an extreme socialist Democrat, yet his stance on many economic policies, national defense and foreign policy is more conservative. You can't paint any one party or individual with the same brush. People have to actually vote for the individual candidate now! Cheers!

Obama is no more a divider than the other Democrats or Republicans. I was laughing about how Mitt Romney was saying that Obama is politicizing Osama Bin Laden's death. So, it's perfectly fine if he takes the blame for the economy, which was handed to him on a silver platter during the greatest economic upheaval since the Great Depression, and none of the credit for finally killing the most wanted man in American history! This is the politics and nonsense in Washington. No one coming together and everyone dividng everyone else! If anybody thinks only one party is guilty, then they've got their head up their butt and don't want to admit the truth. This is the way it has always been! Cheers!

No doubt! Cheers!

There are plenty of asses on both sides...and I don't just mean because they are stubborn! ;D Cheers!

Herb Greenberg has suddenly turned over a new leaf, and has started to distance himself from Sam Antar and Barry Minkow. Here he writes a piece on how Minkow was paid $300K by Herbalife in a settlement to stop harassing the company. http://www.cnbc.com/id/47266789 Greenberg had lunch with Antar and Minkow back in 2007 and wrote an article on Marketwatch: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-2-crooks-told-me-over-lunch He also vehemently defended Minkow when Minkow was shorting and harassing USANA a long time ago. All of that stopped once Minkow was convicted and sent to jail again. Herb, you oily, slick weasel...keep hanging around the dumpster, and eventually you'll completely turn into a rat! Cheers!

Anyone who has watched RIMM's marketing over the last two years, knows that it's a mess. Here's an article on it. Personally, I think they should focus on business, security and function. Their recent ads seem to be targeting 18-25 year olds, yet their core users are 35+ business people. Cheers! http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/tech-news/whats-behind-rims-dyslexic-marketing-missteps/article2420208/

Hi Folks, Alnesh has been really busy at his firm, so he hasn't had a chance to download the pictures. Buffett_Groupie has taken some very good pictures of both events and has posted a slideshow. So please thank him! http://pix.kg/p/174951447606%3A61525570/scl Unfortunately, the lighting on the stage where our guests sat, wasn't very good, so we'll probably have to flip everything around 180 degrees next year. Alnesh's camera had a good flash, so hopefully his pictures got them clearly. I should have those pictures by the weekend. Cheers!

What Parsad did at the Fairfax Dinner provides more value to a newbie investor than any online conference no matter who is hosting it, and Parsad does this at a cost which simply covers his expenses (from my understanding). To charge $999 for an online conference is nothing more than a money grabbing exercise, and its wrong, for if these phenom managers truly wanted to preach the Graham & Dodd approach they would simply provide the conference free of charge or at their marginal cost of delivery. I love how they have an "early bird special" at "only" $298... lol Why is that? Why do you need to entice people prior to the conference? What would be the catalyst to do so, its not like your renting out a space or anything you are simply delivering a voice and video over the internet? The only reason I can think of is so that they can convince the managers: "hey look we have 1,000 early birds, we can split $50k each if you come speak"... Thanks Moore, but let me clarify: We charge more than the costs for the room, buffet, A/V equipment and any other related costs, but the difference or net profit goes to the Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of Canada...although this year was almost breakeven because I had underestimated what the A/V costs were going to be, especially after we had to order a powerpoint projector and screen, and I was already more than half way sold out at the price I had given to everyone. I do not get a penny, and we don't pay anyone to come and speak or attend. All of our guests from Fairfax come at Prem's behest, and their own desire to answer any questions Fairfax shareholders may have. We will never pay anyone to speak, as that completely contradicts the whole premise and culture we have tried to create at our dinner. No one paid Prem to sit and have lunch with me, or Francis, or Tim, or Mohnish, or anyone else...they did it because that's how they give back, and it's my duty to give back to anyone else...including JoAnn who is no longer with us. I'm pretty much with Moore on the whole conference thing. I'm willing to support them if they are giving the profits to non-profits or schools, but I'm not into the whole idea of it being big business...but that's just me! Cheers!

Cheeky would have been if you just provided a link. That was full on butt! ;D Cheers!

Hey, no self-serving pitches! ;D Cheers!

They are net neutral, so we should expect them to move sideways until opportunites present themselves or the insurance market really hardens. Cheers!

Or detecting asset bubbles! He was the Angelo Mozillo of Fed Chairmen. Cheers!

Yes, there were several people at our dinner from outside of North America. There were many people from outside of North America at the Fairfax AGM. Cheers!

Unless Abitibi gets a takeover bid! ;D Cheers!

Well, it was again two extraordinary days in Toronto! Outside of Berkshire's big weekend, I don't think there is any other big multi-day value investing experience like we've now got going every April in Toronto. Our Fairfax Financial Shareholder's Dinner was absolutely terrific again! We had about 144 people attend this year. Dr. Kevin Glasgow, CEO of the Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of Canada spoke early in our dinner. After dinner, Dr. George Athanassakos, the Ben Graham Chair at Ivey spoke. Then Prem wowed us again by bringing a whole host of guests. This year: - Prem Watsa, Chairman & CEO of Fairfax Financial - Francis Chou, Managing Partner at Chou Funds - Sam Mitchell, Managing Director at Hamblin-Watsa - Paul Rivett, VP of Fairfax and Managing Director at Hamblin-Watsa - Peter Furlan, Analyst at Hamblin-Watsa - Ramaswamy Athappan, CEO of First Capital - Richie Boucher, CEO of the Bank of Ireland - Bill McMorrow, CEO of Kennedy-Wilson - Tom Ward, CEO of Sandridge Energy - Bill Gregson, Chairman of The Brick - Marc Bertrand, CEO of MEGABrands - Moses Znaimer, Founder of Zoomermedia Also in the audience were Mohnish Pabrai, Tim McElvaine, Benjamin Gallander and Robert Robotti. Both Hamblin-Watsa managing director, Chandran Ratnaswami, and former Fairfax analyst, Wayne Cadawallder, came during the Q&A. Chandran, as I told you at the AGM, you are more than welcome to come and sit with the panel...we have a seat for you! ;D Prem stayed for about half an hour, and then I had Francis moderate the panel. The Fairfax guests stayed for over an hour and answered plenty of questions from attendees. People have to remember that these CEO's are all incredibly successful in their own right, and to have them come, represent Fairfax and speak at our dinner, says everything you need to know about Prem as a leader! Extraordinary! Several of the guests stayed longer answering questions, and Peter Furlan and Francis Chou stayed much later. Francis was still surrounded by a scrum of about 20 at 11:45pm, after all the tables and room had been emptied. I thought it was about 10:30pm, and when I found out it was near midnight, I had to intervene and get Francis out of there. Again, this should tell you exactly what type of person Francis is, and our guests have always been extremely fortunate to have Francis at every dinner, spending inordinate amounts of time educating all of us! Thank you so much Francis! We raised about $11,040 from the dinner this year. Unfortunately, we broke even on ticket sales, as the audio video equipment was very expensive to rent for the evening. I've got a baseline now for the event, so we'll price it accordingly next year. You have all of these conferences that cost a fortune to attend, with virtually all of the profits going to the organizer! I think the price to value for our dinner is easily ten times better than any of those events, and all of the profits go to a non-profit organization like the "Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of Canada". You'll be paying $150 next year for dinner and the presentation, and $75 for just the presentation. That is cheap for what you get...really cheap! I'd like to thank all of you for your support, and also our volunteers who helped us out! It's what makes our dinner so damn good. Our large donors and silent auction winners really helped us out this year, as the cost of holding the dinner at the Fairmont is far more expensive than holding it at Joe Badali's. But with the size of the dinner now, this is the reality and only option. We will keep it pretty informal, with two short speakers sandwiching the dinner, and then our guests arriving for the Q&A. I want you all to be able to converse about investing for most of the night. The next day, the Fairfax AGM was also fantastic again! There were over 950 people in attendance this year. A number of booths dotted Roy Thomson Hall's pavillion, including our newly acquired non-insurance businesses...William Ashley, Prime Restaurants and The Sporting Life. All had shareholder discounts or gift cards for shareholders. The atmosphere was very much like Berkshire's and even Ajit Jain was present! Prem's presentation was more expansive this year, as he made a very big point of discussing Fairfax's insurance businesses. He had some terrific slides on investments as well, so those who could not attend should view the slides on Fairfax's website once they are posted. Unfortunately, I could not hear the Q&A, so you'll have to rely on NormR's notes once he posts them. The Templeton Foundation donated 350 copies of "The Templeton Plan" for shareholders, and Fairfax was incredibly generous to announce that while the books were free, any donations to the "Crohn's & Colitis Foundation" would be much appreciated. I was manning the both with Alnesh and Trish Long, director at the CCFC. We raised about $1,680 from the book donations. Thanks so much to Prem, Fairfax, Lauren Templeton and The Templeton Foundation! A few other comments about the other events during those two days: From everything I heard, Dr. Athanassakos's Value Investing Conference was a rousing success! It was completely sold out, and attendants really enjoyed it. The Fairfax Financial Shareholder's Pre-Dinner event organized by NormR was also a great success! About 20 people attended and they had a ton of conversation on investing and investment ideas. Francis Chou, Andy Barnard and Sam Chan visited the pre-dinner and answered some questions, so it was quite the treat from what I hear! The crowds were so big for Fairfax this year, that Roy Thomson Hall's pavillion did not clear until after 2pm! Our MPIC Fund's AGM started a bit later than usual, and we had about 45 people in there. It was great to meet everyone and answer their questions! Alnesh, our directors Andrew Cooke and Glen Rollins, and I all had a great time! All total, we raised about $12,800 for the CCFC, and I'm probably going to throw a little more into there, so I can say we raised $13,000+ this year! ;D I'll post some pictures once Alnesh transfers them over from his camera. My thanks go out to Prem, Francis, Pat Hios, Vinodh Loganadhan and Paul Rivett for everything! We'll see you all next year! Sanjeev

Article on Prem and Fairfax. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-27/watsa-who-models-buffett-sees-housing-bubble-corporate-canada.html?cmpid=yhoo

You're more than welcome Eddie! But really, Fairfax deserves all of the credit, and then all of you for supporting the dinner. It's tiring, but I have a hell of a lot of fun organizing the event. The unsung hero in all of this is Francis Chou. He's the one who quietly came to our first dinner...and then every one after that while convincing others to join. He's the one that thinks about who people might like to meet, like he did for those of you at the pre-dinner event. It's that quiet, humble guy, that only knows how to help others, who gave Prem the idea of float...who befriended a guy running a message board...and just goes about his way, day to day, working as honorably as he can. And I'm glad that many of you are finally catching on to him...as there were about 20 of you still surrounding him at 11:45pm at our dinner! Cheers!

NormR will be providing details for all of you, as he was our resident scribe! I'll be posting something probably on Monday, as I'm still catching up on everything. It was crazy busy at both our dinner and the Fairfax AGM. Huge success at both, and Prem did not let us down...in fact he upped it all another notch! It was great to see all of you and thanks for your support! Cheers!