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Everything posted by Parsad
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I guess it is always a matter of control: if those shares were cancelled, which percentage of BH would Biglari control? I agree direct ownership is different than ownership through a fund... Anyway, through the Lion Fund Biglari controls almost 20% of BH. Solely through direct ownership the percentage would be far less... You might not like it, but I guess this is the reason. As always I might be wrong. ;) Gio You don't think the reason is.... to enrich the fund manager (in this case also the CEO). Well, he's also both directly and indirectly leveraged the shit out of the company. If Biglari Holdings price drops, how will that affect the "Various Partnership" assets on the balance sheet? He's also increased debt from $110M to $215M...combine that with long-term leases of $100M and debt to equity is about 60%...this is no Berkshire Hathaway, Fairfax Financial or Markel. In his haste, he may increase leverage even further...thus the fear of the potential for a one-time implosion. One big bet combined with one massive ego and a complicit board...kaboom! Cheers!
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Unfortunately not open to the public, and with the combination of the Dhandho meeting, every seat becomes valuable for Pabrai Funds partners and Dhandho shareholders. Cheers!
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For those attending the Pabrai Fund's California meeting in September, which hotel are you staying at? Just trying to get an idea where most people are congregating. I'm not a fan of the Marriott Sport hotel near Soka, as it becomes distant from alot of things. Cheers!
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Credit Card Interest Question - Bank of America
Parsad replied to west's topic in General Discussion
Yes, generally most credit cards will charge interest on the new purchases as well...essentially, you are still using their line of credit...whereas if you had paid the entire balance, then you have the 26-day (or whatever) grace period where interest is not charged. Always pay the entire balance if you can...I like banks, but I've always thought their credit card business was pretty scummy in general! I never pay a cent of interest to them and I plan on never paying another cent of interest for the rest of my life! Cheers! -
Ok, let's talk for once about something different than the way Biglari treats his shareholders: what would have you done differently from an operating and a capital allocation point of view? Do you think Biglari has made some serious mistakes during the last 5 years? Gio - His original cost basis in Steak'n Shake did not work out as well as expected...paid too much, too early! - I think leveraging Steak'n Shake was not necessary for the returns he achieved, and is a dangerous game when you bet it all on one stock...while it worked out so far with CBRL, the next one, if it is like his original SNS investment, could go the wrong way and wipe him out. Cheers!
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I don't think either strategy can be viewed as a success by any means. Cheers!
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American's giving up their guns will never happen...they're just nuts...we have to accept it and move on! I like Chris Rock's idea...make the bullets cost $5,000 each...then people make sure they shoot the right guy instead of bystanders or innocent people! And by the way Eric, I'm sure this topic won't degenerate into flame wars! :D Cheers!
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What are your least favorite investing quotes?
Parsad replied to Palantir's topic in General Discussion
Another pet peeve is not a quote, but a word that is now used frequently..."alpha!" The next investment manager that asks me about "alpha" is going to get a kick straight in the nuts! Cheers! -
What are your least favorite investing quotes?
Parsad replied to Palantir's topic in General Discussion
"Buy what you know". Peter Lynch got everyone believing that if you see a store that is busy at the mall, that means it's proabably a good stock. Everyone, including myself, started buy shit like "Rainforest Cafe", etc. Then I actually learned about reading financials and went "oh, now that actually makes sense"! Needless to say, Lynch's book is not on my shelf! Cheers! -
Also, don't forget as mentioned in the Big Short, Greenblatt's desire to withdraw his capital when Burry was making his CDS bet, almost had catastrophic consequences for Burry. Make sure your seed partner is one who is going to be there with you in the long haul! Cheers!
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You're right Paul...I don't know what chart range I was looking at! If he sold a year ago, he'd be fine, but it's plummeted since. Cheers!
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No, but I have to say that Sodastream has done better than I expected, and if Moore held on, then he probably has done incredibly well. The thing with Coke or Pepsi is that they will always have the capacity to buy out the "next big thing" in the beverage market. No one is going to displace them...even if people decide sugar is toxic...they will just sell other beverages. It's the distribution system Coke and Pepsi own that is so powerful and valuable. People assumed that if Sodastream is in your house, then the distribution channel is disrupted, but then how come Starbucks coffee at home has never affected sales at Starbucks cafes? And what good is Sodastream if you are out camping and want a cold beverage? Cheers!
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Whats with the stache? Looks pretty good, doesn't it?! Grown in quite well! Much better than the more pencil-thin mustache Mohnish had when he came to Vancouver for TED a few months ago. Cheers!
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The reason I would never invest with him is the 2 & 20: http://www.restfinance.com/Restaurant-Finance-Across-America/September-2013/Biglaris-Compensation-End-Around/ I don't think he is using 2 & 20...it's 6% hurdle and 25% of the profits above the hurdle. Cheers!
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I look for cheap investments...simple. And while that is what I have done and continue to do, anyone who suggests that valuations make sense or assets on a broad scale aren't fully-priced is deluding themselves. As Sam Mitchell said to us once..."...at some point macro matters!" While investors on a regular basis should ignore macroeconomics, at certain times, ignoring them occurs at one's own peril. How anyone can tell me that there aren't gigantic market distortions around us, primarily due to weak monetary policy and a complete lack of fiscal restraint, and controllable debt bubbles with little in the way of economic growth to support them, is mind-boggling. I think investors are in a period where they should simply try to do the best they can. Some have and may continue to prosper because they took leaps of faith in 2013 and 2014. Some have remained cautious since 2009 and simply never felt they could take the plunge...to their detriment. And then there are those that did the best they could with the clouds around them and continue to simply dig for ideas as the clouds remain dark! Cheers!
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Article on Hussman and his comments. Cheers! http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/07/28/john-hussman-yes-this-is-a-bubble-and-it-may-be-worse-than-1929/?mod=yahoo_hs
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I'll try and get some Russell Beer brought over next April. There are provincial liquor laws that apply, so we'll have to see if there is a way around them. You can send Russell to Ontario for personal use, but not commercial, so we'll see how we do it. Russell will eventually work its way to Ontario, as well as the U.S., since the Fort Gerry brewery and the Surrey, BC brewery are natural entry points to the West Coast and Mid-West of the U.S. Distribution in Ontario will most likely come from acquiring another brewery with it's own existing brands or acquiring a distressed brewery and making Russell's beers in Ontario. Cheers! I'd love to try it, hopefully something can be worked out. I like Sharper's suggestion about importing it to the US then exporting it back again. In terms of distribution at what point does the brewery need to lease facilities vs shipping product? Is it a distance thing or a production thing? Craft beers don't use preservatives, so the shelf-life is shorter. The closer production facilities are, the longer shelf-life you have for the product. While you want turnover of the product, you also want to be comfortable that you won't incur losses because of spoilage or inferior product because of a short shelf-life. Thus shipping from Vancouver to Ontario is a non-starter, since you would lose a week of shelf-life, unless the product is consumed relatively quickly. Cheers!
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Not a big deal. It's all good! Cheers!
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Minhas is private, but enough information out there to give you some idea on how they operate. Russell actually had quite a bit of advertising earlier in its life, which contributed to the massive losses suffered previously. Presently, the job was to get the company's costs under control and become profitable, and then you can start allocating capital to efficient forms of marketing and looking for new avenues for growth. Cheers!
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Yeah, I don't know who closed it, since I thought only administrators could do it. But I think the person who starts the thread can do it too, so maybe Oddballstocks did it accidentally. Anyway, I've unlocked it and people can post. Cheers!
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Take a look at brother and sister run, Minhas Brewery in Alberta, which has become very well known for their brand with innovative marketing and competitive pricing by running an efficient brewery. Good managers will run good, efficient operations. Ben is a good manager...may be great when he actually gets years under his belt. He had no brewery or beverage experience before taking over and turning the company around. Cheers!
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I'll try and get some Russell Beer brought over next April. There are provincial liquor laws that apply, so we'll have to see if there is a way around them. You can send Russell to Ontario for personal use, but not commercial, so we'll see how we do it. Russell will eventually work its way to Ontario, as well as the U.S., since the Fort Gerry brewery and the Surrey, BC brewery are natural entry points to the West Coast and Mid-West of the U.S. Distribution in Ontario will most likely come from acquiring another brewery with it's own existing brands or acquiring a distressed brewery and making Russell's beers in Ontario. Cheers!
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Bought a new Jeep Cherokee Sport yesterday...very nice car and the Fiat influence is definitely felt, both aesthetically and mechanically. The new Jeep dash is more competitive with Japanese, Korean or European manufacturers, while the piercing xenon, slit-like driving lights are very cool looking from the front...yet they somehow maintained that Jeep grill and look. Runs great and terrific on gas! The dealership said that they go out the front door as fast as they come in! Cheers!
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I don't think people are trying to specifically pick on Gio. What you have is an investment manager who did everything he could in his early days to mimick Buffett...right down to the font and spacing used in the Berkshire annual reports. Every thing he said and did sounded right! Then when he began his foray using a public vehicle to acquire other businesses, once again, the prose, deeds, conduct were identical. Then something started to unravel and the chinks in the armor began to appear. Not a simple collapse in ethics, but massive breaches to install compensation plans, get control at all costs, and burnish a name rather than the reputation! At this point, those sucked into the vortex began arguing that he never said he was Buffett. Gio, along with Ragu, and a handful of others are defenders of the faith. Nothing wrong with that and completely entitled to say what they believe. But then there are a number of others, including myself but I really don't care at this point unlike in the past, who can't swallow the chopped liver the defenders are feeding us. So no one is picking on Gio...they just don't like what he is feeding us! Cheers!
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Respectfully, Pppphhhhhhtttttt! :P I was in the lows of AAPL too, as well as LUK, BAC, WFC, SD and even BRK...lower than my friend Allan Mecham at Arlington Value...who incidentally has an absolutely stellar record and does not use TA either. Yes, TA can provide some idea of short-term momentum and investor sentiment, but for the long-term, patient investor, you simply just buy when you see that the whole world is selling. If you believe that it helps you, so be it and more power to you! But I would suggest that spending a second on technical analysis, is one second better spent on just reading 10-Q's and 10-K's. And the simplest experiment I can suggest on the complete and utter uselessness of TA is as easy as this: Suppose you found a small company, that has little market liquidity, little to no debt, is growing steadily and generates terrific net income. But it has run into a short-term issue of not having enough cash or credit to fulfill a huge order. You have the ability on the spot to give the company the liquidity it needs, and for the most part, can negotiate the terms you want within reason...in effect, this is going to be a huge winner! What advantage or gain can technical analysis provide in this investment? Absolutely zero...no advantage, nor even required other than to waste time...only to lose out and not making the investment, as they found another funding source while you were asking Fibonacci for guidance! ;D For newer investors, don't waste any part of your life on technical analysis! Cheers!