Wilson-TPC

Would someone be so kind as to share the latest SOTP analysis on this name? Thank you very much in advance!

https://canaccordgenuity.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=03443eb9-3b61-4fbc-9109-016afee64807&mime=pdf&co=Canaccordgenuity&id=CA-InternalResearchDistribution@canaccordgenuity.com&source=mail Take a read.

Convertible holders got shafted. Don't know if the deal will get approved.

Decommissioning liability of 200 million will eat into any transaction. Hence, why there hasn't been a single buyer willing to step up and eat the whole company despite the valuation. Not rubbing salt on the wound, but I don't see a transaction happening. Bankruptcy is the only way to get rid of those liabilities. Buyers will show up then.

Ok. Good luck getting 30k per flowing.

Rumor in Calgary is that only one buyer emerged for the whole company and it was an offshore company. The buyers wanted to shaft the banks, and the banks didn't like it. The buyers likely wanted to pay the banks back slowly, but the bankers want out completely. The banks likely thinks there's a better chance of realizing the value back through receivership. And the problem with TBE is that some of the assets won't sale, so the piece by piece transactions will need to result in a complete payback to the bank.

Sounds like Gear is going to snap up some assets on the cheap here.

Correction: No alder flat plant was sold.

My thoughts on BXE Q1 results. Q1.PDF

His name starts with D and ends with on.

Notice the withheld votes are from a certain shareholder.

Notice that big write off last year? That was related to the Angle acquisition. The bad rep comes from the overly aggressive attitude of growing production. Promotional? I dont think Notorious has talked to enough CEOs in Calgary because I can list a lot more. BXE is a commodity price bet. But then again, what E&P company isn't?

"At December 31, 2015, the Company was in compliance with the financial covenant. Based on the capital budget pricing assumptions, the Company does not expect to exceed the Senior Debt Covenant during 2016. However, if the current commodity price levels persist, the Company would expect to begin negotiating additional covenant relief with its lenders in order to ensure ongoing compliance. If the Company expected to reach or exceed the Senior Debt Covenant, there are a number of steps that may be taken to remain in compliance, including asset divestments, a reduction to capital spending, debt refinancing transactions, and equity issuances." Using the model I have linked, you can figure out at what point 3.5x is breached. Remember AECO 2016 is already at 1.82/gj. And it's nowhere close right now, 2.4x according to my numbers. Second, on the credit line, a cut of maybe 10% is likely on 540 million, so an additional 54 million gone. This is what I currently expect.

Hey Guys, Sorry I've been so MIA, but have been getting hit with calls after calls about the current situation of the shares. I've confirmed with management right now it doesn't look like Orange sold any. Now we won't know exactly what caused this volume spike till next week monday... I know, painful weekend. From what I can tell you and given my sources, I am 1000% sure it's not Baupost selling. I know a firm that sold a decent chunk when BXE was at $1.40 to reduce risk so that's another reason why you didn't see that big follow through on the stock when oil rallied. Unfortunately right now, you are just at the whims of the market. I have attached my model below and what my expectations are for 2016. Please feel free to change price assumptions as you see fit. A little bit more additional color on the earnings: I thought it was fantastic given that my previous thesis that opex/boe would naturally decline due to the higher weighted Spirit River production. They are really cutting costs on all fronts, and have recently applied for an extension on the maturity of the credit line. All in all, things look pretty good. But you wouldn't know that by looking at the stock price, it's quite frustrating but that's just what it is. Propane prices are also expected to get MATERIALLY better. Remember, BXE spent half of the year last year with negative to below cost propane prices. They produce 3,000 boe/d of this stuff. Lastly, on Raymond James. These guys are really bearish natural gas, so it's not a surprise. The only question you can ask, and I've said this before, is can BXE survive? And from this quarterly report, the answer is yes. Model link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/vegn2pkw7r2seey/BXE%20Final%20Model.xlsx?dl=0 Best, Wilson

Anyone look into this? http://seventeenmile.com/2015/12/29/events-williams-companies-investment-review-part-i-december-2015/