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Everything posted by Jurgis
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Is there a reason to create a new thread every single time you post on this? Why not add a post to the old thread you created? That would be much more in the spirit of "Investment Ideas" area. Also, change the title of the thread to ticker + company name instead of presenting it as a thesis.
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http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/qvc-hsn-merge-liberty-john-malone-1202488499/
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Amazon Prime Now 2 hr delivery service has Auto Parts "department". Currently selection in it seems to be crap. Amazon could grow the selection if they pushed for this business. I personally don't find Amazon Prime Now service useful at this point, but YMMV and all that.
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Not true according to this: http://www.boston.climatemps.com/vs/toronto-aero.php Though I have not vetted this data at all, so FWIW.
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We've had these discussions before. People who claim that IB is much better than other brokers are mostly not US based or they are advisors using IB SMA platform, which is something not available from other brokers. It's possible that other brokers outside US are crappy. For US based person IB web interface is crap; customer support - depends - for some people it's OKish for some it's crap; not supporting Turbo Tax Online is complete hogwash. So screw them. 8)
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So apparently it's not available. :-\
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Nothing changed. Same misogynistic attitudes. Not a single gal will admit that she's a gal. There's one or two still posting AFAIK.
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So nowadays 80% runup is called blind selling that keeps price stable. ::) :o Oh well.
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If Toronto/Vancouver RE was not nuts, it might be good time to move there. In 20+ years, it's gonna be temperate climate... maybe. :-\ 8)
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I'd also suggest to grab onlinemed.com if it's still available. If you guys don't get it in a week, I might grab it myself... 8) I'm a nice guy though, so you'all have the opportunity to get it first. 8)
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Thorough analysis of performance of selling decisions
Jurgis replied to Lupo Lupus's topic in General Discussion
The hard part about "sell when the story changes" is that the "story changes" part is usually only obvious after the fact and you may have lost quite a bit by the time it becomes certain. Or you may jump on every "story change" before it's confirmed and get whipsawed. E.g. did story change for AAPL in 2012? In 2015? Now we seem to know that it did not, but I've heard different opinions at the time (look up the thread if you want). Did story change for IBM? (I guess even Buffett now says it did). How about NKE now? How about CVS? I don't expect these questions to be answered here, but IMO the principle is not so easy follow. -
Mortgage and Cash Holdings in Investment Portfolio
Jurgis replied to Lupo Lupus's topic in General Discussion
This has been discussed multiple times in the past and even recently somewhat. (One related thread: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/cash-for-real-estate-vs-mortgage-vs-margin/ ). I don't think there has been a single definitive thread on this. The answer is of course "depends". Depends on your age, on your employment status, salary, the size of the mortgage, the size of the cash (compared to mortgage and salary and investment portfolio), what kind of investor you are, etc. The somewhat "situation independent" answer is what you thought yourself: cash is option, once paid into mortgage it is not easily obtainable again, so don't pay off especially in the cheap mortgage environment we are in. Like Buffett said in 2010 (?) 30 year mortgage is the best investment available. And I'll say that 30 year mortgage is an asset and not a liability. -
It was to offset other short term cap gains, or based on my understanding of US taxes. Well, that is not the case...... like I said you can only offset up to $3000 of capital losses with income/dividends. If I am wrong then I have been doing my taxes wrong all my life. You misunderstand villainx's idea. The idea is as follows: You have $2M short term gains from something - great trading, buying FB 6 months ago and selling now, whatever. You buy crapload of divvie stock (let's say BAC), get $2M of divvies and pay 15% tax on that divvie. Divvie is not used to offset anything. You also get $2M of short term losses because you sell the stock at a loss ex-dividend (you bought stock for $24, divvie was $.08 and stock dropped exactly $.08, so you sold it for $23.92). These $2M of short term losses cover your $2M of short term gains and you don't have to pay taxes on the gains you had. You pay taxes on divvie though. Yes, this is how US taxes work and villainx's idea could work ... if not for the caveats discussed upthread. Edit: and yes, apparently you need to hold stock for 60 days for divvie to be qualified: http://www.dividendstocksonline.com/2011/11/dividend-taxes-qualified-vs-non-qualified-dividends/ So... good idea but no go. 8)
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I predict that if this thread goes to 50 pages, the return will be bad. 8)
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I guess it could work, but 1. You have to find large divvies that are qualified and not return of capital. 2. Divvies have to be large and/or on very stable stocks so that you don't lose more on random walk of the stock in the couple days you hold it than you gain in tax benefits (which is just your short term tax rate minus qualified divvie tax rate). Assuming X% divvie payout, you are gaining X% * 1/4 (convert payout to quarterly) * (0.39 (best case) - 0.15) = X% * 0.06. If payout is 1%, your gain is just 0.06%. If payout is 10% (very unlikely to be qualified divvie IMO), your gain is still only 0.6%. You could be losing more on random walk and commissions/bid-ask-spread/etc. 3. Yeah, you'd need to have short term gains to offset. There might be some people who do it, but probably not worth it for most of the people.
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Car Buying Negotiation Strategy and Observation about Residual Value
Jurgis replied to BG2008's topic in General Discussion
I am really bad at this - especially after reading the stuff abovethread - so take it with a grain of salt. I've only bought used cars. Last one I bought 2011 Camry in around 2014... got pretty much zero drop in price from dealer Internet ad. Part of the reason it was I believe the "draw" car - i.e. a car that dealers post on Internet to attract customers to their dealership and then sell them other crap when buyer can't drop the price on the "draw" car - V6/options/etc. Trouble was I wanted V6 and by the time Camry/Accord/Altima/Maxima (that's the only models that I wanted to look at) were 80-90% majority V4. So either you're really patient to try to find V6 that dealer wants to get rid of or you pay. I paid. At least I avoided the super scummy dealers where the "draw" car does not exist at all. I.e. you find the ad, you call, you go there and it was suddenly "sold". Anyway, people on this thread are pros. Tip of the hat. I'll never be able to do this crap. ;) At least when I buy, I keep them forever. Still driving 2003 Accord with... 70K miles on it. Getting bald a bit though. :( Might get Model 3 - I'm in the queue, but not sure gonna take delivery - depends on how bad are options (Autopilot, Sunroof, etc.) priced. -
Very good rebuttal on Picketty and socialism
Jurgis replied to yadayada's topic in General Discussion
Yeah. Lithuania by now lost about 1/3 of its population due to emigration. You'd think those people would wanna stay in the "free and capitalist" instead of leaving for the "controlling and socialist". Wanna "free and capitalist" country that needs people? Just go there. Have fun. Tell us how it works out for you. 8) -
I thought that the buying was from AMZN takeover/whatever rumor, no? I have to admit I only saw this somewhere fleetingly though.
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netnet, I remember we talked about biotech spinoffs including Idorsia and how they are good places to invest. I looked at it the day it opened, no way to value, stock up 30%+, put in order around the bid/ask, it ran away, I said screw it, won't chase. I see the meta-thesis and it's likely you gonna make a bunch of money on this. But it's tough to buy without any valuation and no upcoming valuation for quite a while. And with a runup out of the gate. Yeah, I bought a tiny bit of KHTRF some time ago and still holding, but really it's tough. Good luck. 8)
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So is he basically putting neurological foundation for Thinking Fast and Slow? Sorry, I haven't heard about him till today.
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I use Bing. And your point is? Jurgis, curious if you are using Bing Rewards? Always thought about switching b/c of it, but never have Yeah. I am. It's not gonna make you rich haha. But then I don't really see quality difference between Bing and Google, so why not. I get $5 Amazon card, but now I'm trying to save for 12-month Microsoft Xbox One Live. It's way cheaper with points than with buying (less than half price), so gonna be a bit of a boost. But really not worth switching to Bing just for rewards. 8) (Hey, I'm not a salesman as you can see haha.)
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I use Bing. And your point is?