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Everything posted by Jurgis
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DNS - hmm, maybe. The back and forth as seen from a single computer on the same network all the time suggests that there still might be a different DNS server or a cached version somewhere which is being served and conflicts with new one. Anyway, yeah, let's hope that it goes away without further issues.
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Return policy? I bought Xbox and I think one laptop on BestBuy online in last couple years. Prices were cheaper than Amazon. I haven't been in their store for 5 years I think. I do online comparison shop for bigger ticket items or if I suspect I can get a better deal outside Amazon. Re: retail - no plans to invest in the sector. We liked going to TJX and DSW, but haven't been there for a while now. We still buy clothes/shoes in TJX/DSW. Wife shops at URBN brands and Forever 21 (private) once in a while. I might have to go to Burlington Coat Factory next winterish to buy couple winter coats. Last time we went, store looked like Kmart--. :/ I wonder if NKE and/or UA will be great investments here. Barron's says yes. ;) Disclosure: We have a tiny bit of AMZN, a bit of TJX, and a tiny bit of URBN. Not a suggestion that any of these are buys/holds/whatever.
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Fidelity is great apart from what Winjitsu said. There are additional benefits that may or may not matter to you: branch access, pretty knowledgeable phone people (including foreign trades, filling out weirdo corporate event forms, bonds, etc.), support for free solo 401(k), etc. No experience with Schwab. IBKR should die. Well, now that IRS allows you to mail in their printout of 8949 form/worksheet and you don't have to enter it all by hand into TurboTax, I am a bit less pissed off at IBKR. So IBKR should die a little. 8)
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I know that site was down yesterday and last weekend. I am talking about today. Are you saying that site was down today too?
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The site for me keeps switching between current content (with today's posts) and the 2015 content (latest posts from 2015 and nothing newer). This happened multiple times today back and forth. In same browser. Is this happening to others too? I'm afraid that something is still broken and we may lose the site again (and possibly content if not backed up).
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It seems there's a huge Amazon purchase wallet access war going on in credit card land. I have the Chase Amazon Visa giving 5% back. Then Amex is giving new credit card holders 10% back from Amazon purchases for first 6 months. Then Fido Visa just sent me offer of $25 back if I make three Amazon purchases over $25. (Not mentioning Discover and Chase Freedom that periodically now run 5% back from Amazon in their categories). My guess is CC companies are just drooling to be the card used in Amazon purchases... Cause do you even spend money elsewhere? 8)
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Thanks thefatbaboon. I shifted from LBRDA to LVNTA last couple weeks. Now will have to think what to do next. 8)
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Buffett's Berkshire takes stakes in four major airlines
Jurgis replied to KCLarkin's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
I'm thinking whether I should buy some RYAAY. -
Blackrock Ditching Active Human Management
Jurgis replied to Ballinvarosig Investors's topic in General Discussion
So nobody will speak up for Magic Formula or Value Weighted Indexes as example of fully automated outperforming passive? 8) -
Blackrock Ditching Active Human Management
Jurgis replied to Ballinvarosig Investors's topic in General Discussion
ScottHall proves my question was actually easy. 8) -
Blackrock Ditching Active Human Management
Jurgis replied to Ballinvarosig Investors's topic in General Discussion
There is a very hard - though also very interesting - question: Compare: - Passive (market cap based indexes) - Fully automated formula funds. (Spectrum from simple formulas to very complicated algos) - Human-in-loop active funds. What is the best for average investor? Bonus points: Fully automated funds gonna evolve. Yes, they will. Different bonus points: consider asset allocation. Not that this is solvable. -
Blackrock Ditching Active Human Management
Jurgis replied to Ballinvarosig Investors's topic in General Discussion
Schwab711, you realize that algo driven != passive, right? Passive should be defined as market-weighted indexes. Anything else makes the whole definition broken. Smart-beta is not passive. Algo is not passive. Value/ROE/Moat-based automated funds are not passive. The fact that you know supercomplicated algorithm beforehand and your fund just follows it is not passive. "Oh, yeah, I am going to create a fund which will follow buying/selling decisions of Valueact, but it will do this automatically, so it's passive". -
AFAIK, most of these cards are sponsored by the brand manufacturers. They encourage you to choose the Brand name drug over the generic. The CVS card seems different. For one thing, Insulin doesn't have generic competition. But more specifically, as the largest PBM and pharmacy, CVS could use the card more strategically -- negotiating steep discounts and encouraging more cash-pay patients to use CVS pharmacy. But it is possible that this is just a CVS-branded patient assistance card, and CVS is just collecting an admin fee from the manufacturer. In which case, you are right. These discount programs already exist. aaa.com/prescriptions is what I was talking about. ( Site auto detects your location and may not open the same page for Canadians... ) Not arguing with what KCLarkin said. He might be totally right. Just providing additional info. 8)
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FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
Jurgis replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
If the zombie status remains as it is right now, ithr common and preferred are zeros too, it just will take a long time until all hope isn't gone and the stock prices adjust accordingly. And its been discussed multiple times over the "zombie status" cannot persist. I beg to differ. Whatever can exist for 9 years can exist for 90 years. I have never heard a convincing argument why not. I agree that it those entities probably will not remain in the current state, but I think they could, especially since the status quo works really well for the government right now. I think the argument against zombie state persisting is that GSEs run out of capital buffer in 2018 and need capital injection then or something similar. What if govt does the capital injection but continues the same state with a higher ownership of prefs/warrants/whatever? Maybe this is prohibited. Resident experts will tell you. 8) -
I think he means corporate tax cuts which do favor stocks, since the underlying business income suddenly goes up X%. (Not looking at secondary effects).
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So is TSLA going to die when cobalt spikes (already?)? Or will Elon invent unobtainium batteries? Stay tuned for news!
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Hmm, I also have AdBlocker (ABP). But I still get ads inside FB. How did you set it up to kill the ads/promotions there? (We could take it out of this thread). I read FB once two weeks. Like Zuck said, it's not a social network, it is a (curated) newspaper. What I mostly get is not friend life stories, but their links to newspaper/etc. articles. Lots of fun/interesting stuff. Although for some subset of friends their life stories or just tidbit comments are interesting too. So let's say I've warmed up to FB a bit. I don't post there at all though. (OTOH, the fact that I warmed up to FB is a definite death knell for it. 8) )
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I never click on ads. Yet I clicked on one FB ad. So, yeah, likely way more clickthrough than elsewhere... 8) (The ad I clicked was advertising ScottHallofFame of course. 8) )
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VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
Jurgis replied to giofranchi's topic in Investment Ideas
This is (still) a swamp thread but I'll step in for teeny tiny bit (might run away if I get sucked in) 8) There is some truth that rollup Outsiders are/were at the similar risk as Valeant. I don't remember details of Teledyne, but didn't it almost go BK on rollup? Isn't there a risk that some Malone co will go BK? (Didn't Malone had a brush with that already? Even in TCI days?). This was one of my criticisms of the whole "Outsiders" story. I.e. the author picked couple rollups that did not blow up and proclaimed them to be messiahs. How many did blow up? I believe the author thought Valeant was Outsider company too... Maybe better continued in "Outsiders" thread... -
Can I be your agent and sell ScottHall Brand? 8) We gonna make multi-BUHLLIIOOONS! I want ScottHall Brand listed on the NYSE this time next year. It is a high-margin platform compounder that licenses the ScottHall brand name and other acquired names for use on private label clothing. The numbers totally aren't made up. We'll start with bespoke T-shirts and pret-a-porter ad enabled ultimate fighting leisure suits. We can always add makeup to make up the numbers. Initial investment options of $2 billllion dollars minimum available on request. Hyper qualified investors only. Usual two and twenty twenty fees apply.
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Please God, Just One More Bubble! 8)
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What was your longest held stock and what was the return?
Jurgis replied to Jurgis's topic in General Discussion
Right. I'm in US and most of my money is - for better or worse - in tax deferred/exempt accounts. In taxable accounts outperforming tax-efficient index is mostly FOGETABOUTIT. Compounders may work. (Though a secret ScottHall'ish goal of this thread was that forever holds don't perform as well as people think they do 8) ). Also for US-only: I donate appreciated taxable stock to Fidelity Charitable Trust, which I then disburse to charities. Good way to get rid of those pesky capital gains. Thanks to all who contributed. Please continue. 8) -
Can I be your agent and sell ScottHall Brand? 8) We gonna make multi-BUHLLIIOOONS!
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Well, the reason the inefficiency exists is that it's hard to exploit or yields minuscule profits. In some sense that makes it not a real inefficiency. I.e. an economist will probably tell you that if inefficiency gain < frictional+labor costs, then it's not a real inefficiency. I can get 100%++ returns per week in online games in in-game currency. This does not prove that market is inefficient, since (1) you can't convert in-game currency into USD; (2) even if you could, you'd be earning $5 per week or something like that. Have fun playing though 8)
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What was your longest held stock and what was the return?
Jurgis replied to Jurgis's topic in General Discussion
Yeah, I think it's a good exercise. I've owned (and own) too many stocks to do it. It's easy to remember the ones that were huge mistakes of selling (or not buying, or buying too small position). I think I've mentioned them already: AAPL, GOOG, ARM, Tencent, various Liberties, BRK, MNST (before it was called MNST), ORCL, ADBE, NKE, SBUX, NFLX. I've owned most of these for millisecond or a bit longer. And at least considered the remaining ones. But yeah, there are stocks that I've sold and that eventually went to zero. And probably some that went flattish/down - most semis and semiequips I'd guess. I've been planning to go down a memory lane of my buys/sells sometime. I've got some record of that on SI.