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Everything posted by Jurgis
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Although I'm very much pro-Elon, I think this kind of growth is very hard to achieve in hardware (batteries, cars) industries. Unlike software, the buildouts and getting things to efficient production usually takes much longer than expected. Apple mostly sidestepped this issue by outsourcing manufacturing (IIRC they had some of similar issues when they manufactured their own computers). Elon will have to confront it head first. We'll see how it works out. Sure Tesla and Elon have some experience by now. But Gigafactory and scaling cars to 500K a year is not just a step of repeating what they know. Disclosure: I have token amount of TSLA shares for fun and Elon support. It's not an investment.
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Disclosure: I own some GILD. Usual disclosure: I bought a lot of GILD in 2010, sold everything in 2011 when they purchased Pharmasset, since I thought they overpaid. Missed 10x and all that. Based on general valuation, it is cheap. Also in the recent past whenever drug companies were valued low due to the pipeline issues, they usually produced more and surprised on the upside. On the other hand, I am not pharma expert. IMHO, you pretty much have to understand pharma and drug markets to invest in pharmas. ;) One issue with GILD is new CEO. It is not clear how good he is. It is possible that Martin left at the top and left the new CEO deal with the crap fallout.
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If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?
Jurgis replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
I should learn to do that. 8) -
Berkshire Hathway: Second Quarter Financial Results
Jurgis replied to valueinvesting101's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
At current market valuations, there are few things that are cheap for Buffett to bag. He could buy something like PSX or Deere on assumption that they are cheap here. Or DVA on assumption that its future is better than market expects even at high valuation. In the past usually the buys at high market prices took longer to work out. I guess that's what some people were saying when PCP was bought. -
If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?
Jurgis replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
Ah personal attacks now. What are you exactly accusing me of? Do tell. -
If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?
Jurgis replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
Oh look. Rightwing demagogues talking about logic. And calling others Nazis. And claiming that someone silenced them on the Internet forum while continuing to bloviate nonstop. Yeah, that makes sense. Probably someone used logic. Poor guys. Maybe you need a better platform? More threads? More ideas on how to defend your insane candidate? Maybe we should pat you on the back every time you start bogus attacks and insults? You need love? Tenderness? Hey, come on over, I'll give you a hug. We love you. Truly. We want you to talk more. We appreciate your dedication and non-sequitur thread changes. You da guys. Just amazing. There. -
Amen. If I could be born today instead of 19XX when I was born, I'd choose to be born today. Even if I had to be born in Lithuania again. Even if I had to be born in Russia - perhaps. And well, I truly believe that today's kids who live to be 50+ are likely to live forever (as in "not die unless killed") - if we don't blow up ourselves in the next 50 years.
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If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?
Jurgis replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
Oh look, somebody's trying to whitewash Trump screwups and some conservative morons are eating it with a spoon. Clearly, the Republican party "establishment" who are not comfortable with insane demagogue were bought by Liberals. Communist infiltration! Bring back McCarthy! -
Berkshire Hathway: Second Quarter Financial Results
Jurgis replied to valueinvesting101's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Isn't GS a bank now? Isn't there some rules or issues with BRK owning a bank? Isn't that's the reason they got rid of banks in the past and never fully owned a bank or increased AXP position since? Although rules have changed a lot in last couple decades, so I don't know what's the last on this. -
To be fair, for the first item the prices are 3rd party prices on Amazon. You cannot blame Amazon on what 3rd parties charge there. Edit: you can show Amazon price on the graph and variations are less. You can blame Amazon for the second item price variations. Likely this is just an algorithm that tries to maximize profit based on demand, availability, 3rd party prices, etc. It's not clear why swings are so drastic - it doesn't look good for customers. I guess Amazon just assumes most consumers don't follow the prices and they are likely right. Edit2: Also don't forget that these charts are for 4-5 years. That's a long time. If you look shorter term for http://camelcamelcamel.com/simplehuman-Rectangular-Touch-Bar-Trash-Stainless/product/B0081HFGEY, they have just a couple of sales - normal. For repellent, the variations are wide even shorter term.
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I haven't shopped at Walmart for couple of years, so perhaps it's worse there now. In the past, it was normal like any other store. I'm talking some exurban inland CA and Amherst, NH locations here.
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If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?
Jurgis replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
+1. Trump himself might be just a middling racist and xenophobe on the par of water-cooler brogrammers and jocks who just don't think it racist or misogynist to call someone n word or ho, bitch, etc. The problem is that he's running a campaign based on raising and supporting that hatred. -
I used Jet.com when it came out and gave $15 (?) coupon for the first purchase. Never used them afterwards. I was tempted once or twice for groceries where Amazon third-party prices are 2x-3x supermarket, but their search function was atrocious, so I gave up. They are still sending me crap email. Should unsubscribe. I use Walmart.com if/when I need groceries that are overpriced at Amazon and not available in local stores.
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If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?
Jurgis replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
Hyperbole much? ;) Tough crowd here. Lots of Monday morning quarterbacking, recency bias, simplistic solutions that likely don't work. Politics and war are even harder than business. You don't have full control, you do X expecting Y, Z comes out. And you can't do W because of a number of reasons even if you wanted. We sometimes say that investing and business is unmeasurable. Talk about measuring politics and war. Might be good idea... Drop billions of US$ on Iran, not bombs (oops, was just done ;) ). No, but seriously - can this be measured objectively? And yeah we can talk about how military is mismatched from the tasks they are trying to accomplish: not just shoot and destroy the enemy army, but police, counter-terrorist, rebuild, indoctrinate, train and teach, etc. And yeah we can possibly agree that recent conflicts in Middle East were disasters because there was no long-term commitment to be there after initial shootout. But nobody really knows how to do that. Rebuilding takes a generation likely. Who has commitment to stay in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Egypt (?), etc. for generations not only policing but also pouring money to rebuild - what? it's not even clear what to rebuild. So sure, I could agree with non-interventionists and say: "Don't intervene". But then you have dictators and broken countries. It's not really true that leaving Afghanistan, Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Egypt, Iran alone is good either. Maybe it's fine for a bit. But then these guys go and nuke it out between themselves or possibly their neighbors too. Is that a good future? Is it better or worse than the interventionist scenario? Not trying to defend Obama or Bush. -
So, when does the next payment tranche go out 8) It would seem this is actually Iran's money being given back to them which has been held in trust since an arms deal with the Shah in which we never delivered the weapons in question. The timing of the hostage release to coincide with the payment is hard to see as anything other than a ransom, even if it's with their own money. We should have shipped them 35 year old weapons systems instead of returning the cash. I was trying to be humorous. I relearned my lesson not to participate in these topics. I'll stick to telling the occasional joke on the "I need a Laugh. Tell me a joke..." thread so it will be obvious. We should ship them some nukes. Oh wait. I'll switch threads. ;D ;D
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If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?
Jurgis replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
Who was damned because they didn't? That hasn't been tried in generations. I'll answer this, but I'll try to not get drawn into the discussion further. Do you really believe that if some party withdrew US bases from Middle East and suspended support for Israel, they would not be damned? What about Iran? What is the "you don't" with Iran? Maintaining sanctions? Removing sanctions and doing nothing? Look how well that worked for Democrats. I don't have an opinion about the Iran deal and I don't know if you consider it "you don't", but it's not a bad example IMO for being damned if you don't. What about Iraq's Kuwait invasion in 1990? You really think that USA would have not been damned if they didn't? Edit: Also in something like Arab spring, there is no "you don't" option. You implicitly support either status quo or the rebels and different groups will definitely damn you for either stance. -
You know that in a number of states prisoners or former prisoners cannot vote? http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/florida-no-1-in-barring-ex-prisoners-from-voting/nXwZH/
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If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?
Jurgis replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
Middle East is a mess where you are dammed if you do and dammed if you don't. It's easy to blame both Republicans and Democrats and pretty much every single administration since what 1970's? for issues there. There are no solutions there pretty much - well maybe there are, but nobody so far found them. There is only thrashing and temporary lulls in issues which then-governing party uses to say "Mission Accomplished" or claim success. I'll admit that I'm guilty too blaming various administrations for Middle East. I should be more careful and not do this anymore. But anyone blaming a single party for Middle East problems is decidedly biased. You know who you are. -
YOLO, man! ;D Aren't you supposed to be more careful if you can only live once? ::) I was thinking the same when I wrote it. ;D We should change it to YOLT. 8)
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For those who believe Trump is unfit to serve as President
Jurgis replied to onyx1's topic in General Discussion
What rb said. Edit: BTW, I considered voting "Yes" on the poll just to troll OP and other Trump supporters. But then decided not to, since they might think the poll is in some way "real". ;) -
Ah, sorry for confusion. I got confused between Canadian pref threads and Canadian debenture threads. :) I see that Fido also has some Canadian prefs available for international trading. Some that have been mentioned here are not available. So it is a mix for Canadian prefs (and non-retirement accounts only for international trading). I don't see debentures mentioned available likely for the reason valcont specified.
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For those who believe Trump is unfit to serve as President
Jurgis replied to onyx1's topic in General Discussion
George W. tried to do it, but papa dragged him to election by his ears. Bill Clinton tried to do it, but Hillary dragged him to election by his pen.. -
BTW, I mentioned this before, but another market inefficiency came recently to nanocap pink sheet no info stocks. Fido (and some other brokers?) no longer allow you to buy no info (and some "limited info"? not sure) pink sheet stocks. So I can no longer buy a few nanocaps mentioned on CoBF in the past. This could add to the opportunity for people enterprising enough to research such and buy them on any brokers that don't have this restriction. Edit: The list changes quite a lot. Some companies are no-info and then they file quarterly/annual and become "Current Information" again. There might be opportunity to buy when they are "no-info" and sell when they are current when more market participants get access. I haven't done extensive research on that though, so YMMV.
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Sometimes I wonder how anything gets accomplished at all. :)