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Everything posted by Jurgis
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Interesting. Might be a good way, though not sure I'll switch - habits die hard. Thanks for sharing. :)
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Very tough question IMHO. First, it is very tough to analyze Liberties overall. Second, you don't know what Malone will do next with each of them. For example, nobody knew how CWC will be attributed between LBTYA/LILA (and they still might not completely know based on complicated merger rules). Nobody knows what's gonna happen with Lion's Gate / STRZA / DISCA - merger, what merger, how, when, etc. I hold DISCA, LBRDA, LBTYA, LILA, LMCA, LTRPA, LVNTA, QVCA, STRZA. One split of this would be: Content: DISCA, STRZA, QVCA (?), LGF (if we count it) Cablecos: LBRDA, LBTYA, LILA, LVNTA (?? depends on whether they get LBRDA/CHTR deal ??) LMCA is special case LTRPA is really TRIP and possibly not very Liberty. Looking at content, DISCA is probably most attractive. However, depending on how LGF merger is structured... who knows. Content has a lot of risk due to content competition, dropping viewership, etc. It is also cheap for that reason. Looking at cablecos... honestly, I have no clue. Each has advantages and disadvantages IMO. LVNTA has some optionality based on LBRDA/CHTR deal, but then you have to deal with the other stuff in it (EXPE). LMCA looked like a big "new" "future deals" company for a while, but not so much recently. Now it looks like mostly SIRI. Spinoffs/trackers coming. Tough to judge. Depending on price might be a cheaper backdoor to SIRI - if you want to own SIRI. Overall, it's tough and I am not sure even Malone knows to optimize it fully. E.g. STRZA was supposed to be sold by now... no progress. I'd probably hold a basket, but even with that it's tough to decide how to split.
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It's a combination of price, location (if I can make any reasonable evaluation about location in new city), amenities (parking, breakfast, internetz), OTA reviews (Expedia has had OKish reviews in the past, Priceline & Orbitz not so much), sometimes hotel brand (for some you can know what to expect, for some - not really). I don't dis TRIP reviews. They might be helpful sometimes. Although usually more info just leads to analysis paralysis. There's always complaints. Some might be worth listening, some not. A lot of times you don't know which. It's also tough to weigh. If you want below $100 (haha) in NYC, you have to live with crap neighborhood, crap rooms or both, etc. Reviews might not help to decide whether one hotel is less crap than the other if they both are rather crappy. I think this applies also at other places in goodness/crappiness range: if you compare "comparable" hotels, they will have somewhat comparable complaints. Sometimes there are exceptions where a "comparable" hotel is a piece of crap compared to other "comparable". But these are possibly not very common and also sometimes you learn this only after experiencing it (rather than from reviews). Anyway, just my experience from the past. As I say, I don't dis TRIP. I just have not used it much. Might change in the future. Who knows. :)
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Crazy things in Flint MI property market....?
Jurgis replied to DTEJD1997's topic in General Discussion
Because of the human nature. Do you know what shitstorm would happen if people were offered $40K per family (or whatever their property is/isn't worth) to get up and leave? Some people might be happy, but my guess for some people this would end up as "gov't is trying to kick us out of our houses" protest/lawsuit/rebellion. So bad solutions will be taken instead. Note that I don't know crap about Flint and the situation there, so I may be mistaken on various points. -
Oil, wow, WTF happened to all of the oil bugs on this site?
Jurgis replied to opihiman2's topic in General Discussion
Pennwest - not for the faint hearted Pennwest is not worthless today... or is it? ;) IMO, there's a lot of small caps some even without debt loads that will go 2x+ if oil goes to 50+. So pick your poison. -
These are really great notes. Very close to audio, almost perfect IMO. A++ recommended.
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On one hand, maybe he'll have some Maxim models, pool and cigars. On another hand, maybe you'll be abused by Mr. Big for asking questions. So if you go, just shut up and have a cigar.
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Just double checking: there are no ADRs or five-letter-F shares available on US exchanges for this? Barron's had a positive mention this issue ::)
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Anecdotally, when I book, I try two or three OTAs ( getting harder with consolidation ... ). Don't use Trip at all. I don't usually even look at their ratings... In USA, I sometimes try the hotel website after narrowing down choices through OTAs. I don't know if I'll ever book on Trip. But never say never. ;) Disclosure: I hold some LVNTA and LTRPA.
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If you go that line of argument, why not Redfin instead of Zillow? My "value investing" (read: cheap as hell) friends use Redfin. No opinion about Zillow as investment.
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Yeah, tax time. They don't fcking import to Turbo Tax Online. OK, I knew this already. Sucks. So they want me to enter tax country and tax country ID. I click on ?-mark icon to see what they want. Instead of opening an explanation popup, this opens a new page that advertises their mobile apps. With no way to close the page. With no back button. With no information even remotely related to what I clicked. I had to close everything relogin and then avoid clicking anything looking even remotely like question mark. Then I go to their message inbox. It's a fcking internal message inbox. And the message in it says: This is in an internal IB message inbox. What are they thinking? That I somehow accessed this message without logging into Account Management? Why give a login URL instead of giving URL to tax form? Who wrote this???? And BTW, this is not the first and not the last time IB website does things that make no sense whatsoever.
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The amount of stupidity on IB website defies all expectations. If I could get rid of my IB account, I would immediately. Who are the idiots who programmed it and why are they still employed. How does this company survive. FU********************************************K! There.
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They should sell some bonds to the cattle. Or some cattle to bond traders. Synergies.
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I was expecting a cigar. Color me disappointed.
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That sounds wrong. Never used airbnb, but I guess I'm not their target demographic. I've used some real BnBs when traveling in Scotland - they were nice - and there was lack of hotels in remote'cy places. But not looking to sleep in someone's spare bedroom when traveling to cities that have hotels. Might be just me though. :)
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To support Apple's position against government backdoor I might decide to change my stand against buying Apple devices. Go Tim Cook! If I buy Apple device though, you can pretty much turn of the light for the company's success.
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Insurance results are great, but overall results are not. Of course, 4.5% book value growth in a year of flat market is not bad, but you stack that on top of last 4+ years (with divs) and you get something like 5% annual, which is low. If there was something way more attractive, I'd probably switch out of FRFHF. If market crash comes, I may even.
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Relax Sanjeev. There is Santa. And his name is Buffett. Or Watsa. I think. ;D
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It is normal for a very large percentage of the world’s investors to be paying borrowers to take their money? Is it normal for a major economy to be creating almost 10% of GDP in credit in a single month when their current credits are deteriorating rapidly? Not saying you can’t find good investments but why be so quick to dismiss people who bring up these (and other) important issues as crazy perma-bears (especially Dalio, who isn’t even making a long or short case, just stating the facts)? I'm certainly not a perma-bear, but I'm also not willing to just stick my head in the sand either. The fact that something is not "normal" to you does not mean that the result will be the market crash or the end of civilization. When TwoCitiesCapital says , he's being much more honest than when he and a bunch of others predict that this will end in 50+% crash, recession/depression, endless deflation (or is it hyperinflation?), etc. I'm going to go with "don't know" too. But I am not going to take macro bets of shorting, currency bets, etc. to attempt to predict the outcome. If that makes me crazy bull, then so be it.
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A lot of people make this mistake for various companies.
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I like how a 0.22% move is indicative of a crash. Wonder what this algorithm thought when it went ex-div at the beginning of the year... this thread just cost me 2min of my life the sacrifices we make to participate in CoBF. 8)
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And bearishness is of course "well justified". LOL.
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OK. At least this digging led me to the old news that they made revolver "secured" (in the same sense as 2nd liens perhaps, but higher priority?). Previously revolver was unsecured. I have missed this news in the past.
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This says they are secured: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/chesapeake-energy-corporation-announces-private-exchange-offers-for-senior-notes-300187307.html Or things have changed? Or are we talking about different notes?